Policy misfits,climate change and cross-scale vulnerability in coastal Africa: how development projects undermine resilience

Coastal social ecological systems in eastern Africa are subject to a range of environmental, social and economic changes. They are already vulnerable to these multiple stressors, and the impacts of climate change are likely to further exacerbate their vulnerabilities. Some of these impacts may be observed and experienced already. The analysis presented in this paper is based on mixed methods empirical research exploring local perceptions of recent changes at four sites in coastal Tanzania and Mozambique. People recognise and rank a number of climate and non-climate stressors which have contributed towards more risky and less diverse livelihoods. Importantly, regional and international policy initiatives – in the form of river basin management in Mozambique and South Africa, and development of a Marine Protected Area in Tanzania – are perceived to further erode resilience and exacerbate vulnerabilities. We suggest this is a form of policy misfit, where policies developed to address a specific issue do not take account of cross-scale dynamics of change, the interactions between multiple stressors, nor longer term climate change. This policy misfit may be remedied by a move towards adaptive forms of governance, and necessitates an explicit focus on building the adaptive capacity of the poor and most vulnerable in society.     

A critical evaluation of the implications for risk based land management of the environmental chemistry of Sulphur Mustard

Sulphur Mustard, or "Mustard Gas" is in fact an oily liquid which was used as a chemical weapon primarily for its vesicant action which necessitates whole body protection. It is also now recognised as a carcinogenic agent upon chronic exposure. Soil contaminated with Sulphur Mustard continues to present both acute and chronic human health risks and risks to groundwater, surface water and the wider ecology at a number of sites globally and, in some cases, has done for many decades. This is at odds with the simple aqueous chemistry of the compound which would suggest that it should be short lived in the environment, especially in the presence of water. A number of studies have examined the possible factors for this longevity and, though the causes are generally assumed to be understood, the precise reasons have not yet been definitively determined and the evidence in support of the existing theories is at best circumstantial. At present, the prevailing view is that Sulphur Mustard is somehow protected by oligomeric or polymeric sulphonium species produced during incomplete hydrolysis reactions. The following review discusses the pertinent degradation mechanisms in the environment; hydrolysis and thermal degradation and the reasons put forward for the longevity of Sulphur Mustard in the literature. Other factors, such as the role of polymeric species in Sulphur Mustard droplets in modifying the mobility of the agent are also examined. Ultimately, without a thorough understanding of the abiotic fate of the Sulphur Mustard, uncertainties will remain in the application of risk assessment and remediation strategies to such sites, potentially compromising the validity or effectiveness of such actions.     

High individual variation in pheromone production by tree-killing bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae)

Aggregation via pheromone signalling is essential for tree-killing bark beetles to overcome tree defenses and reproduce within hosts. Pheromone production is a trait that is linked to fitness, so high individual variation is paradoxical. One explanation is that the technique of measuring static pheromone pools overestimates true variation among individuals. An alternative hypothesis is that aggregation behaviour dilutes the contribution of individuals to the trait under selection and reduces the efficacy of natural selection on pheromone production by individuals. We compared pheromone measurements from traditional hindgut extractions of female southern pine beetles with those obtained by aerating individuals till they died. Aerations showed greater total pheromone production than hindgut extractions, but coefficients of variation (CV) remained high (60-182%) regardless of collection technique. This leaves the puzzle of high variation unresolved. A novel but simple explanation emerges from considering bark beetle aggregation behaviour. The phenotype visible to natural selection is the collective pheromone plume from hundreds of colonisers. The influence of a single beetle on this plume is enhanced by high variation among individuals but constrained by large group sizes. We estimated the average contribution of an individual to the pheromone plume across a range of aggregation sizes and showed that large aggregation sizes typical in mass attacks limit the potential of natural selection because each individual has so little effect on the overall plume. Genetic variation in pheromone production could accumulate via mutation and recombination, despite strong effects of the pheromone plume on the fitness of individuals within the aggregation. Thus, aggregation behaviour, by limiting the efficacy of natural selection, can allow the persistence of extreme phenotypes in nature.     

Digital preparation of a probable neoceratopsian preserved within an egg, with comments on microstructural anatomy of ornithischian eggshells

We describe the first known embryo of a neoceratopsian dinosaur, perhaps the most ubiquitous Laurasian group of Cretaceous dinosaurs, which is preserved completely enclosed within an egg. This specimen was collected from Late Cretaceous beds of southern Mongolia, which commonly preserve fossils of the neoceratopsian, Yamaceratops dorngobiensis. The small egg was scanned using high-resolution X-ray computed tomography and digitally prepared from the matrix. The preserved and imaged elements support a diagnosis of the embryo to Neoceratopsia and allow preliminary observations of ontogenetic transformations within this group. The addition of an embryo also adds another important data point to the already impressive postnatal ontogenetic series that are available for this clade.     

Sex pheromone chemistry and field trapping studies of the elm spanworm Ennomos subsignaria (Hübner) (Lepidoptera:Geometridae)

The elm spanworm, Ennomos subsignaria (Hübner), occurs throughout Canada and the eastern United States and can be a destructive forest pest on a wide range of deciduous trees. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and coupled gas chromatographic–electroantennographic detection (GC/EAD) analysis of pheromone gland extracts, in combination with chemical synthesis and field trapping studies have identified (2S, 3R)-2-((Z)-oct-2′-enyl)-3-nonyl oxirane (hereafter Z6-9S, 10R-epoxy-19:H) as the female-produced sex pheromone. Significantly more male moths were captured between 1–100 μg loadings of this compound on red rubber septa in sticky traps compared to blank (unbaited) traps; catches then declined at higher dosages (500–1000 μg). The other isomeric enantiomer, (2R, 3S)-2-[(Z)-oct-2′-enyl]-3-nonyl oxirane (Z6-9R, 10S-epoxy-19:H), at a 10-μg dosage did not elicit trap capture. The likely precursor to the active epoxide, (Z, Z)-6, 9-nonadecadiene ((Z, Z)-6, 9-19:H), identified in virgin female sex pheromone glands, did not elicit trap capture either, and inhibited trap capture when combined with the active epoxide. Racemic 2-((Z)-oct-2′-enyl)-3-nonyl oxirane showed no significant difference in trap capture compared with Z6-9S, 10R-epoxy-19:H, indicating that the opposite enantiomer was not antagonistic. The addition of the EAD-active diene epoxide enantiomers (2S, 3R)-2-[(Z, Z)-octa-2′, 5′-dienyl]-3-nonyl oxirane or (2R, 3S)-2-[(Z, Z)-octa-2′, 5′-dienyl]-3-nonyl oxirane in admixture with Z6-9S, 10R-epoxy-19:H (at 10% of the latter) did not enhance or decrease trap capture compared to Z6-9S, 10R-epoxy-19:H oxirane alone, so they are not likely pheromone components. This pheromone, impregnated in rubber septa at less than 100-μg dosage, can now be used as a trap bait to develop detection and monitoring strategies for this insect.     

More aid, better institutions, or both?

It has been nearly 20 years since a working definition for “sustainable development” was put forward by the World Commission on Environment and Development. The concept endures in the mission statements and frameworks of action of various societal actors, including those of neighborhood associations, metropolitan development authorities, environmental ministries, and United Nations (UN) specialized organizations, to name a few. Yet many observers doubt that sustainable development is occurring in poor countries. This failure, the critics contend, stems from miserly transfers of foreign aid. The extent to which inadequate aid is to blame for poor environmental/developmental outcomes is an open question. But vocal demands for increasing aid to meet sustainable development goals come from many parts of society and are persistent. Exhortations for more aid to help poor countries are noble, perhaps even justifiable, but there are understandable doubts about the wisdom of transferring large capital and technical resources to countries that are slow to adopt needed institutional reforms. Aid without institutional reform is a recipe for wasted resources and donor fatigue. Worse, it may enhance inequities of wealth and power in recipient countries. There are few illustrations to draw on demonstrating how institutionally impoverished societies are affected when they are compelled to absorb massive aid inputs over a short period––a remedy suggested by some prominent aid experts. As a proxy, it is valuable to examine instances where swift macroeconomic changes, spurred by external investment and export-led growth, has occurred without significant institutional development. The case of Equatorial Guinea and its sudden oil riches is examined to discern whether, in the absence of meaningful institutional reform, rapid and profound increases in foreign direct investment and export income enable poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

A mathematical programming tool for LCI-based product design and case study for a carpet product

Products are produced by a series of energy-intensive transformations of raw materials such as crude oil. The life cycle inventory (LCI) of mass and energy usage in these supply chains is one measure of overall environmental performance. In this paper, we present a methodology to examine the life cycle choices available for a product and optimize these choices based on criteria derived from mass and energy efficiency. A two-phase framework for production path construction followed by optimal path selection was developed. This framework can be applied to improve the overall LCI energy characteristic of a product when there are different production and recycling options for different product constituents. The scope of the life cycle is from raw material extraction through the production system and does not include the use and disposal phases. The approach is illustrated in a case study of the EcoWorx™ carpet system of Shaw Industries, which includes the inclusion of several recycled material options.     

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.     

Statistical Evaluation of Variables Affecting Occurrence of Hydrocarbons in Aquifers Used for Public Supply,California

The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co‐occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co‐occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.     

Conjunctive Water Use in Confined Basalt Aquifers: An Evaluation Using Geochemistry,a Numerical Model,and Historical Water Level

As withdrawals from deep compartmentalized aquifers increasingly exceed recharge throughout the western United States, conjunctive water use management alternatives have become an applied research priority. This study highlights both details and limitations of the role of irrigation canal seepage as groundwater recharge, revealing the regional limitations of canal seepage as a dependable source of recharge in overdrawn aquifers. A suite of geochemical indicators were used together with a numerical model to evaluate current and future management scenarios focused on recharge derived from seepage from a region‐wide irrigation canal system. Twenty‐five years of static groundwater level data were used to relate spatial trends determined using geochemistry and groundwater modeling with “on‐the‐ground” management practices, which vary based on acreage, crop, and irrigation scheduling. Increasing groundwater age determined using isotope analysis, and declines in potentiometric heads, each correlate with increasing distance from the canal reaches. Predictive modeling indicates that if pumping is gradually reduced, as has been suggested by management agencies, that recharge from canal seepage will be negligible by 2035 due to regional groundwater through‐flow and the pattern of potentiometric head recovery. Unfortunately, historic hydrographs suggest that under current groundwater development conditions most wells are not sustainable, irrespective of proximity to the canal.