Variation in vegetation cover and livestock mobility needs in Sahelian West Africa

A new approach was developed to evaluate the implications of the spatiotemporal variability of green vegetation for the dispersion of livestock that is required to access quality forage in semi-arid Africa. Maximum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) at 1 km² resolution was determined for concentric rings (0–31 km radii) around 227 individual sample locations within the study area for 14 dates (between 1 April to 1 November) annually over the 2000–2010 period. A sigmoidal curve was fitted to points within the maximum NDVI × distance radii space to determine the asymptote distance (AD) – the radius at which further dispersion from the sample location does not lead to significant gains in access to green forage. AD was found to: increase with latitude (or increasing aridity); decline as the rainy season proceeds; and show no trend over the 2000–2010 period. These results introduce much-needed empirical data to current debates surrounding the scales of governance to support livestock mobility.     

Seasonal variation in the effects of food availability on gametogenesis in the purple urchin (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Strongylocentrotus purpuratus</Emphasis>)

The amount of food and when it is available affect both the timing of reproduction and the number of gametes produced by purple sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. To investigate this further, the effects of food availability on feeding rates, gonad growth, and gamete development were examined in S. purpuratus collected from the Point Loma kelp forest near San Diego, California, USA (32.69° N, 117.26° W) in September (Fall) 2007, and February (Spring) and July (Summer) 2008, using laboratory mesocosms. Each seasonal laboratory feeding experiment lasted 3 months, and different levels of food availability were established with different feeding frequencies (from 1 to 7 days week⁻¹). Gonad tissues of male and female urchins were staged at the end of each experiment using histological analyses. Reduced food availability resulted in increased daily consumption rates, especially in the Fall when gamete development began. Food limitation at this time resulted in failure to produce viable gametes, suggesting there is a critical period early in gonad development when food limitation affects reproductive competency. Food limitation later in gonad development did not stop viable gamete production, although it did reduce gamete output.     

Long-term population dynamics of seeded plants in invaded grasslands

In recent decades, dozens of studies have involved attempts to introduce native and desirable nonnative plant species into grasslands dominated by invasive weeds. The newly introduced plants have proved capable of establishing, but because they are rarely monitored for more than four years, it is unknown if they have a high likelihood of persisting and suppressing invaders for the long-term. Beyond invaded grasslands, this lack of long-term monitoring is a general problem plaguing efforts to reintroduce a range of taxa into a range of ecosystems. We introduced species from seed and then periodically measured plant abundances for nine years at one site and 15 years at a second site. To our knowledge, our 15-year data are the longest to date from a seeding experiment in invaded, never-cultivated grassland. At one site, three seeded grasses maintained high densities for three or more years, but then all or nearly all individuals died. At the second site, one grass performed similarly, but two other grasses proliferated and at least one greatly suppressed the dominant invader (Centaurea maculosa). In one study, our point estimate suggests that the seeded grass Thinopyrum intermedium reduced C. maculosa biomass by 93% 15 years after seeding. In some cases, data from three and fewer years after seeding falsely suggested that seeded species were capable of persisting within the invaded grassland. In other cases, data from as late as nine years after seeding falsely suggested seeded populations would not become large enough to suppress the invader. These results show that seeded species sometimes persist and suppress invaders for long periods, but short-term data cannot predict if, when, or where this will occur. Because short-term data are not predictive of long-term seeded species performances, additional long-term data are needed to identify effective practices, traits, and species for revegetating invaded grasslands.     

Forest conservation delivers highly variable coral reef conservation outcomes

Coral reefs are threatened by human activities on both the land (e.g., deforestation) and the sea (e.g., overfishing). Most conservation planning for coral reefs focuses on removing threats in the sea, neglecting management actions on the land. A more integrated approach to coral reef conservation, inclusive of land-sea connections, requires an understanding of how and where terrestrial conservation actions influence reefs. We address this by developing a land-sea planning approach to inform fine-scale spatial management decisions and test it in Fiji. Our aim is to determine where the protection of forest can deliver the greatest return on investment for coral reef ecosystems. To assess the benefits of conservation to coral reefs, we estimate their relative condition as influenced by watershed-based pollution and fishing. We calculate the cost-effectiveness of protecting forest and find that investments deliver rapidly diminishing returns for improvements to relative reef condition. For example, protecting 2% of forest in one area is almost 500 times more beneficial than protecting 2% in another area, making prioritization essential. For the scenarios evaluated, relative coral reef condition could be improved by 8-58% if all remnant forest in Fiji were protected rather than deforested. Finally, we determine the priority of each coral reef for implementing a marine protected area when all remnant forest is protected for conservation. The general results will support decisions made by the Fiji Protected Area Committee as they establish a national protected area network that aims to protect 20% of the land and 30% of the inshore waters by 2020. Although challenges remain, we can inform conservation decisions around the globe by tackling the complex issues relevant to integrated land-sea planning.     

Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Predicting national sustainability: The convergence of energetic,economic and environmental realities

The “constraint space” dictated by energetic, economic and environmental realities on scenarios for future organization of humanity and nature is explored from the perspective of the energy and resources driving economies. Net energy of energy sources is presented as an index (Emergy Yield Ratio; EYR) that must be evaluated for energy sources to better understand their potential contributions to society, but more important, as an indicator of the changes needed in the future if lower net yielding sources are to be relied upon. An aggregate EYR was calculated for the USA economy and shown to have decreased by 38% since 1950, from 11/1 to 6.8/1. Several measures of efficiency at the scale of national economies are explored and the data suggest that the most efficient economies are also the most energetically intense (as measured by empower intensity). An index of environmental loading is suggested as a measure to evaluate environmental efficacy. An obvious outcome is that the smallest most energetically intense countries have the highest environmental loads, and those with large land area and/or continental shelves have the lowest ratios. An Emergy Sustainability Index (EmSI) is defined, computed for countries, and proposed as a multi-dimensional measure of long-term sustainability. The most sustainable economies are those with the highest EYR and lowest environmental loads.     

Growth rate and hatching date in ostrich chicks reflect humoral but not cell-mediated immune function

A tradeoff between immune response and life history traits, in particular growth rate, has been documented in various bird species. Ostriches are fast-growing birds and a typical feature of cohorts is that offspring often differ greatly in size. We investigated the relationship between hatching date and growth rate of chicks and both cell-mediated (measured using a phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) injection) and humoral immune responses in ostrich chicks maintained on a research farm. Chicks with higher growth rates had intermediate responses to both diphtheria and tetanus toxoids. By contrast, no relation between growth rates and responses to PHA injection were found. We conclude that chick growth rate variation may be explained beyond a certain threshold by a tradeoff between the humoral response and growth. Both responses to PHA injection and humoral responses in chicks were found to decrease with chick hatching date. Within the context of ostrich farming, these results could partially explain size variations observed in cohorts of chicks, as well as high mortality rates during their first 3 months of age.     

Phenology and population radiation of the nettle caterpillar, Darna pallivitta (Moore) (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae) in Hawai’i

The nettle caterpillar, Darna pallivitta (Moore) (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), is an invasive pest with established populations on three Hawai’ian islands. Indigenous to Southeast Asia, D. pallivitta caterpillars cause defoliation of ornamental nursery stock and pose a human health hazard due to their urticating hairs that can cause painful skin reactions. Identification of the pheromone component n-butyl (E)-7,9-decadienoate (E7,9-10:COOnBu) from D. pallivitta has made it possible to investigate the phenology and population dynamics using baited traps. Male captures in Jackson traps baited with E7,9-10:COOnBu showed a vegetation preference for tall-grass fields and forest/grass interfaces over forest areas. Microlocation preferences were also found for trap height, with over 65% of males being caught in traps suspended at 1 m, compared with the traps at 3 and 5 m. Captures of male moths in traps baited with live females, and direct observations of female calling behavior, showed peak activities 6–7 h after the onset of scotophase. This is a much later communication period than for D. bradleyi and D. trima and may provide a mechanism by which D. pallivitta maintains reproductive isolation in areas where all three species are present. Coastal and inland transects established in eastern Hawai’i measured aspects of population fluctuations and radiation into new areas with relation to elevation and microclimate. Population expansion was measured by comparing moth population means and 80% population boundaries over time. Both population measures showed a higher expansion for the coastal transect. Differences in population expansion may be attributed in part to temperature and elevation, while precipitation does not seem to have a strong effect. Both the behavioral and ecological data collected can be used to optimize deployment of detection/control strategies and to predict population expansion/risk assessment for establishing quarantine protocols for the nettle caterpillar.     

Flexible hierarchical mark-recapture modeling for open populations using WinBUGS

Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS. We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.