Lichen-based critical loads for atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Western Oregon and Washington Forests, USA

Critical loads (CLs) define maximum atmospheric deposition levels apparently preventative of ecosystem harm. We present first nitrogen CLs for northwestern North America’s maritime forests. Using multiple linear regression, we related epiphytic-macrolichen community composition to: 1) wet deposition from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program, 2) wet, dry, and total N deposition from the Communities Multi-Scale Air Quality model, and 3) ambient particulate N from Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE). Sensitive species declines of 20-40% were associated with CLs of 1-4 and 3-9 kg N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹ in wet and total deposition. CLs increased with precipitation across the landscape, presumably from dilution or leaching of depositional N. Tight linear correlation between lichen and IMPROVE data suggests a simple screening tool for CL exceedance in US Class I areas. The total N model replicated several US and European lichen CLs and may therefore be helpful in estimating other temperate-forest lichen CLs.     

Visiting a Climate-Influenced National Park: The Stability of Climate Change Perceptions

Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens’ perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors’ (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors’ perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.     

Perspectives on Disconnects Between Scientific Information and Management Decisions on Post-fire Recovery in Western US

Environmental regulations frequently mandate the use of “best available” science, but ensuring that it is used in decisions around the use and protection of natural resources is often challenging. In the Western US, this relationship between science and management is at the forefront of post-fire land management decisions. Recent fires, post-fire threats (e.g. flooding, erosion), and the role of fire in ecosystem health combine to make post-fire management highly visible and often controversial. This paper uses post-fire management to present a framework for understanding why disconnects between science and management decisions may occur. We argue that attributes of agencies, such as their political or financial incentives, can limit how effectively science is incorporated into decision-making. At the other end of the spectrum, the lack of synthesis or limited data in science can result in disconnects between science-based analysis of post-fire effects and agency policy and decisions. Disconnects also occur because of the interaction between the attributes of agencies and the attributes of science, such as their different spatial and temporal scales of interest. After offering examples of these disconnects in post-fire treatment, the paper concludes with recommendations to reduce disconnects by improving monitoring, increasing synthesis of scientific findings, and directing social-science research toward identifying and deepening understanding of these disconnects.     

Time-dependent recordkeeping fatigue among youth completing health diaries of unintentional injuries

PROBLEM: Increasingly, investigators are asking youth to self-report daily activity patterns and health outcomes in diary studies. This study assesses recordkeeping fatigue with respect to data quality and event reporting among youth participating in a health diary study. METHOD: Unintentional injury data were collected during a 13-week longitudinal diary study of Ohio youth exposed to agricultural hazards. Two analyses were conducted using data from 2000. Analysis 1 examined trends in discernable recordkeeping errors (DREs) over the course of follow-up. Analysis 2 assessed trends in injury reporting over follow-up. RESULTS: The percentage of items containing a DRE showed a slight, non-significant decline throughout follow-up. Injury reporting declined significantly (p<0.001) over follow-up. SUMMARY: There was no compelling evidence of respondent fatigue with respect to DREs. The observed decline in injury reporting is problematic because estimates of youth injury incidence in health diary studies may vary depending upon the length of the follow-up period.     

Chiral signatures of PCB#s 95 and 149 in indoor air, grass, duplicate diets and human faeces

Chiral signatures of PCB#s 95 and 149 are reported for indoor air, grass, omnivorous and vegan duplicate human diet homogenates, and human faeces. Comparison of chiral signatures of both congeners in grass with those reported previously for outdoor air (measured at a height of 1.5 m) and soil at the same location suggest that volatilisation of PCBs present in soil may exert a significant influence on concentrations in grass. Duplicate diet homogenates display racemic signatures for both congeners. Alongside the racemic signatures in both outdoor and indoor air, this implies that human intake via diet and inhalation is racemic, and that the previously observed variation between individuals in the extent of enantioselective degradation in human liver samples indicates possible inter-individual variation in ability to metabolise PCBs. Chiral signatures of PCB# 95 in the 10 human faecal samples analysed indicate 8 to be racemic, but 2 to display an excess of the 2nd eluting enantiomer. This is consistent with the excess of the 1st eluting enantiomer reported elsewhere for human liver samples, as it implies enantioselective excretion of the 2nd eluting enantiomer. However, the racemic residues for PCB# 95 in the majority of faecal samples are a possible indication that enantioselective interaction of chiral PCBs with cytochrome P450 occurs slowly. The racemic or near-racemic signatures observed for PCB# 95 and 149 in indoor air match closely those in outdoor air, but differ from those in soil, adding to the weight of evidence that ventilation of indoor air is a far more significant contributor to outdoor air concentrations than volatilisation of PCBs from soil.     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Assessing inundation damage and timing of adaptation: sea level rise and the complexities of land use in coastal communities

Climate change exacerbates the public policy challenges already present in managing contested landscapes. Coastal managers deal with multiple stressors and multiple stakeholders and have a difficult challenge in managing competing land use as sea level rise (SLR) reduces the amount of prized coastal land. The information needed to inform on the type and timing of adaptation strategies reflects a major gap in the planning and implementation of adaptation options. We present here an inundation risk assessment framework (IRAF) for estimating the impacts of increasing SLR inundation extent probabilities and the cost of inundation damage through time for public and private infrastructure assets. The framework integrates the cost of damage across asset classes in order to help decision-makers judge the economic utility of various adaptation options and the timing of implementation. We provide an example of this methodology using a case study from Southeast Australia in a low lying estuarine region with an increasingly urbanized population. The methodology shows a clear pathway in which to integrate multiple asset classes into a temporally based damage cost analysis. Such methodology will help address the timing of adaptation and allow for the development of trigger points to guide adaptation planning. Thus, the framework developed in this paper can be easily transferred to other regions and countries facing the same types of SLR risks. As SLR and inundation encroachment continue to occur, decisions regarding protection, repair, and retreat will be made depending on the resources available to local governments. The challenge is to balance decision making with both the timing of implementation as well as costs (both of action and inaction). By understanding the areas of land lost to inundation and the cost of inaction through time, local governments can assess the rationality of adaptation at points in the present and future.     

Quantifying ‘geographic proximity’: Experiences from the United Kingdom's National Industrial Symbiosis Programme

Geographic proximity is said to be a key characteristic of the resource reuse and recycling practice known as industrial symbiosis. To date, however, proximity of symbiont companies has remained an abstract characteristic. By conducting a statistical analysis of synergies facilitated by the United Kingdom's National Industrial Symbiosis Programme during their first five years of operation, this article attempts to quantify geographic proximity and in the process provide practitioners with an insight into the movement trends of different waste streams. Among other it was found that the median distance materials travelled within a symbiotic relationship is 20.4 miles. It is argued that quantitative information of this form is of practical value for the effective deployment of industrial symbiosis practitioners and wider resource efficiency planning. The results and discussion presented within this article are specific to industrial symbiosis opportunities facilitated within the United Kingdom; the methodology and assessment of resource movement influences are, however, expected to be relevant to all countries in which industrial activity is similarly mature and diversified.