Predicting the economic impact of an invasive species on an ecosystem service.

Quantifying the impact of alien invasive species on ecosystem services is an essential step in developing effective practices and policy for invasive species management. Here we develop a stochastic bioeconomic model that enables the economic impact of an invasive pest to be estimated before its arrival, based on relatively poorly specified ecological and economic parameters. We developed the model by using a hypothetical invasion of the varroa bee mite (Varroa destructor) into Australia and the negative flow-on effects that it would have on pollination by reducing honey bee populations, giving rise to a loss of pollination services, reduced crop yields, and additional production costs. If the mite were to continue to be prevented from entering the country over the next 30 years, we estimate that the economic costs avoided would be U.S. $16.4-38.8 million (Aus $21.3-50.5 million) per year. We suggest that current invasion response funding arrangements in Australia, which do not acknowledge these avoided damages, require amendment.     

Mercury Concentrations in Fish from Lake Meredith, Texas: Implications for the Issuance of Fish Consumption Advisories

We examined how length of fish is related to mercury concentrations in muscle tissue of seven species of fish from Lake Meredith, Texas and determined how sex and growth rate are related to mercury concentration in walleye (Sander vitreus). Flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), walleye and white bass (Morone chrysops) had the highest concentrations of mercury and channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus), common carp (Cyprinus carpio), river carpsucker (Carpiodes carpio) and gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) had the lowest concentrations of mercury. Mercury concentrations were positively correlated with total length (TL) of fish for all species except gizzard shad, which exhibited a negative correlation between mercury concentration and TL. Male walleye grew more slowly than females, and males had higher concentrations of mercury than females. We also assessed the differences in fish consumption advisories that would be issued using Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) guidelines versus United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) recommendations. Using DSHS guidelines, no fish species in Lake Meredith would be issued a fish consumption advisory. Nevertheless, DSHS has issued an advisory for walleye in Lake Meredith, possibly due to an inadequate sample size of fish. Using USEPA guidelines, a fish consumption advisory would be issued for the largest size class of flathead catfish but no advisory exists for flathead catfish in Lake Meredith. We suggest that when fish in a lake may be contaminated with mercury, all game fish in the lake should be assessed, and mercury advisories should take fish size into account.     

Shunning the night to elude the hunter: diurnal fireflies and the “femmes fatales”

Summary. Lucidota atra, a diurnal firefly, shares possession of defensive steroids (lucibufagins or LBGs) with nocturnal fireflies of the genus Photinus. Photinus are protected against predators by their LBGs, but not against fireflies of the genus Photuris, the so-called firefly femmes fatales, which prey upon Photinus, thereby acquiring LBGs for their own defense. We propose that L. atra may have been prompted evolutionarily to become diurnal by the opportunity to avoid, thereby, being hunted by Photuris. Indeed, L. atra, if offered to Photuris, were eagerly devoured by the latter, which sequestered their LBG’s. In feeding on L. atra, Photuris may be driven by a gustatory affinity for LBGs. Persistent nocturnality might therefore have put L. atra at risk vis à vis Photuris. Diurnality freed the firefly from that risk, without compromising its defended status with respect to other predators. Possession of LBGs may in fact account for L. atra’s unacceptability to birds and spiders.     

Epiphytic cyanobacteria maintain shifts to macroalgal dominance on coral reefs following ENSO disturbance

Macroalgal dominance of some tropical reef communities in the Eastern Pacific after coral mortality during the 1997-1998 El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was facilitated by protection from herbivory by epiphytic cyanobacteria. Our results do not support that reduction in number of herbivores was a necessary precursor to coral reef decline and shifts to algal reefs in this system. Rather, macroalgae dominated the community for several years after this pulse disturbance with no concurrent change in herbivore populations. While results of microcosm experiments identified the importance of nutrients, especially phosphorus, in stimulating macroalgal growth, nutrient supply alone could not sustain macroalgal dominance as nutrient-stimulated growth rates in our in situ experiments never exceeded consumption rates of unprotected thalli. In addition, thalli with nutrient-enriched tissue were preferentially consumed, possibly negating the positive effects of nutrients on growth. These tropical reefs may be ideal systems to conduct experimental tests distinguishing phase shifts from alternative stable states. Shifts were initiated by a large-scale disturbance with no evidence of a changing environment except, perhaps, dilution in herbivory pressure due to increased algal cover. Community establishment was most likely stochastic, and the community was likely maintained by strongly positive interaction between macroalgal hosts and cyanobacterial epiphytes that uncoupled consumer control of community structure.     

Habitat-specific impacts of multiple consumers on plant population dynamics

Multiple consumers often attack seeds, seedlings, and adult plants, but their population-level consequences remain uncertain. We examined how insect and small mammal consumers influenced the demography and abundance of the perennial shrub, bush lupine (Lupinus arboreus). In grassland and dune habitats we established replicate experimental lupine populations in 81-m2 plots that were either protected from, or exposed to, herbivorous voles and granivorous mice (via fencing) and/or root feeding insects (via insecticide treatment). Populations were initiated with transplanted seedlings in 1999 and 2000. We followed the demography of these cohorts, subsequent generations, and the seed bank for 5.5 years. Voles and insects killed many seedlings in dune (1999 only) and grassland (1999 and 2000) habitats. After 2000, insects and voles had minimal effects on seedling or adult survival. Seed predation by granivorous mice, however, greatly depressed seedling recruitment, resulting in lower adult lupine abundance in control plots vs. those protected from rodents. In grasslands, initial effects of voles and insects on seedling survival produced large differences among treatments in adult plant density and the cumulative number of seeds produced throughout the experiment. Differences among grassland populations in seed rain, however, had little influence on the magnitude of seedling recruitment into this habitat. Instead, recruitment out of a preexisting seed bank compensated for the lack of seed production in populations exposed to consumers. Shading by dense adults in plots protected from consumers limited seedling establishment within these populations. Although differences among populations in cumulative seed rain did not influence adult establishment, populations protected from consumers accumulated substantially larger seed banks than controls. These results illustrate how density dependence, habitat-specific seed dynamics, and particular demographic impacts of consumers interact to shape plant population responses to consumers.     

Response of Nitrogen Loading to the Chesapeake Bay to Source Reduction and Land Use Change Scenarios: A SPARROW‐Informed Analysis

In response to concerns regarding the health of streams and receiving waters, the United States Environmental Protection Agency established a total maximum daily load for nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed for which practices must be in place by 2025 resulting in an expected 25% reduction in load from 2009 levels. The response of total nitrogen (TN) loads delivered to the Bay to nine source reduction and land use change scenarios was estimated using a Spatially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes model. The largest predicted reduction in TN load delivered to the Bay was associated with a scenario in which the mass of TN as fertilizer applied to agricultural lands was decreased. A 25% decrease in the mass of TN applied as fertilizer resulted in a predicted reduction in TN loading to the Bay of 11.3%, which was 2.5–5 times greater than the reductions predicted by other scenarios. Eliminating fertilizer application to all agricultural land in the watershed resulted in a predicted reduction in TN load to the Bay of 45%. It was estimated that an approximate 25% reduction in TN loading to the Bay could be achieved by eliminating fertilizer applied to the 7% of subwatersheds contributing the greatest fertilizer‐sourced TN loads to the Bay. These results indicate that management strategies aimed at decreasing loading from a small number of subwatersheds may be effective for reducing TN loads to the Bay, and similar analyses are possible in other watersheds.     

Policy and Practice Certainty for Effective Uptake of Diffuse Pollution Practices in A Light-Touch Regulated Country

Environmental Management - Although the link between agriculture and diffuse water pollution has been understood for decades, there is still a need to implement effective measures to address this...     

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land‐management and land‐use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert‐evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers’ evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data‐driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real‐world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem.     

Reach and messages of the world's largest ivory burn

Recent increases in ivory poaching have depressed African elephant populations. Successful enforcement has led to ivory stockpiling. Stockpile destruction is becoming increasingly popular, and most destruction has occurred in the last 5 years. Ivory destruction is intended to send a strong message against ivory consumption, both in promoting a taboo on ivory use and catalyzing policy change. However, there has been no effort to establish the distribution and extent of media reporting on ivory destruction events globally. We analyzed media coverage of the largest ivory destruction event in history (Kenya, 30 April 2016) across 11 nation states connected to ivory trade. We used an online‐media crawling tool to search online media outlets and subjected 5 of the largest print newspapers (by circulation) in 5 nations of interest to content analysis. Most online news on the ivory burn came from the United States (81% of 1944 articles), whereas most of the print news articles came from Kenya (61% of 157 articles). Eighty‐six to 97% of all online articles reported the burn as a positive conservation action, whereas 4–50% discussed ivory burning as having a negative impact on elephant conservation. Most articles discussed law enforcement and trade bans as effective for elephant conservation. There was more relative search interest globally in the 2016 Kenyan ivory burn than any other burn in 5 years. Ours is the first attempt to track the reach of media coverage relative to an ivory burn and provides a case study in tracking the effects of a conservation‐marketing event.