Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis.

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.     

Whole-community mutualism: associated invertebrates facilitate a dominant habitat-forming seaweed

Many habitat-forming, or foundation, species harbor diverse assemblages of associated taxa that benefit from the refuges from predators or harsh physical conditions that foundation species provide. Growing numbers of studies show how specific taxa associated with foundation species can benefit their hosts, but the aggregate effects of the entire community of associated species remain poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the role that a diverse assemblage of invertebrates plays in mediating the dominance of a foundation species, the green filamentous seaweed Cladophora columbiana Collins, in rocky intertidal habitats. Cladophora is a fast-growing seaweed with a high nitrogen demand, and we suggest that it persists in nutrient-limited high-intertidal pools because of local-scale nitrogen excretion by the invertebrate taxa living within its filaments. Removal of associated invertebrates resulted in a fourfold increase in the rate of water-column nitrogen depletion by Cladophora, and ammonium concentrations inside Cladophora turfs with invertebrates present were seven times higher than in the adjacent tide-pool water. The ammonium excreted by invertebrate meiofauna far surpassed the nitrogen used by Cladophora, suggesting that all of Cladophora's nitrogen requirements could be met by the invertebrates associated with it. This study links host performance to the total aggregate biomass of mutualists rather than the particular traits of any one species, suggesting the potential for important feedbacks between individual hosts and the communities of associated species that they support.     

THE Clean Development Mechanism: Making it Operational

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a facility for trading `certified emission reductions (CERs) between developing and developed countries, thus saving non-renewable carbon emissions by promoting renewable energy, energy efficiency and/or carbon sequestration projects in LDC's. The purpose of the CDM is to help these latter countries meet their obligations under the Kyoto Protocol while at the same time promoting “sustainable” development in the former countries, thereby reducing the build-up of greenhouse gases (GHG). This paper examines the progress in achieving a workable CDM in time for the first commitment period (2008–2012), and the kinds of initiatives that can be pursued in the agricultural, land-use and forestry sector in tropical countries. The critical element for the success of the CDM is the participation of a broad cross-section of buyers (ultimately from developed countries) and sellers (from developing countries) of CERs. Trading is the final step, which starts with project formulation, through successful implementation and then certification. This paper lays out a market-based framework for promoting CDM transactions between private sector project developers and traders and public sector policy makers, with regulators, governed by CDM rules, overseeing the smooth running of the CDM. However, as there are numerous players; it is proposed that trial CDM projects be demonstrated with the support of National/International bodies to iron out the problems and come up with practical solutions so that carbon trading can become a reality. Most rules for the CDM were clarified at the 7th Conference of Parties (CP) in October/November of 2001 in Marrakesh. An executive Board (EB) was appointed and this EB is in charge of proposing workable ground rules to promote the CDM. These have to be submitted for approval by the 8th CP in late 2002. Three broad kinds of projects qualify for the CDM, these are: renewable energy projects that will be alternatives to fossil fuel projects; sequestration projects that offset GHG emissions; and energy efficient projects that will decrease the emissions of GHG. It is possible to have a combination of these initiatives. A fourth type covering GHG reduction is omitted. As elaborated in the text, in order to qualify for the CDM, the proposed projects may have to have additional costs when compared to the alternative(s). Two time frames have been agreed for CDM projects to qualify for the first commitment period, namely 7 years (with an option of two 7-year renewals) and 10 years. Also, for land-use, land-use change and forestry projects only afforestation/reforestation initiatives are recognized as being permissible for the first commitment period. These rules seem rather shortsighted, as forestry and/or renewable energy projects usually require more than 21 years to be fully effective. Also, the major cause of deforestation is clearing land for agriculture, not harvesting wood. Therefore, improving agricultural productivity may be the best way to reduce deforestation and its subsequent release of GHGs. These conditionalities should be re-examined when rules for the second commitment period are decided. However, various agricultural and land-use projects are discussed under the existing guidelines which could qualify as CDM projects in the first period.     

Investigating activated sludge flocs using microanalytical techniques: demonstration of environmental scanning electron microscopy and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry for wastewater applications.

Environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) with an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) were demonstrated to be useful analytical tools for investigating surface and bulk components of individual floc particles from both full- and bench-scale activated sludge systems. Detailed surface imaging of various hydrated biological floc particles by ESEM revealed substantial differences in surface features between treatment systems, while EDS identified spatial differences in the iron and the aluminum distributions. The ToF-SIMS spectra had signature fragments of protein and polysaccharide material from the floc surface, suggesting that this technique is capable of surface profiling extracellular polymeric substances. Principal-component analysis of the positive ion ToF-SIMS spectra from the mixed-liquor-suspended solid (MLSS) samples and reference aquatic organic materials found slight differences between the full- and bench-scale MLSS surface properties but substantial differences among MLSS and treated effluent from the same facility.     

Consequential cognition: Exploring how attribution theory sheds new light on the firm‐level consequences of product recalls

It is unclear why some firms suffer greater negative consequences than others following a product recall. To shed light on this question, we extend attribution theory to the firm level to explore how consumers engage in an attributional process following product recalls that shapes their responses to firms. Integrating attribution theory and the demand side theoretical perspective, we assert that consumer judgments of responsibility toward manufacturers are shaped by causal data regarding the locus of causality (i.e., manufacturer or supplier) and controllability (i.e., prior knowledge or awareness) of a recalled product's potential for harm. We then examine the impact of product recall characteristics on judgments of responsibility and firm‐level outcomes using an experimental test involving responses from 320 subjects. Our findings suggest that judgments of responsibility are attributed to the manufacturing firm more when consumers are given causal information indicating that the firm is the source of, or is aware of, a product's defects. The results also indicate that judgments of responsibility can have costly firm‐level consequences in the form of reputational damage, diminished consumer purchase intentions, and increased legal damage recommendations. We discuss theoretical contributions, practical implications, and opportunities for further research.     

A parametric model of child body shape in seated postures

Objective: The shape of the current physical and computational surrogates of children used for restraint system assessments is based largely on standard anthropometric dimensions. These scalar dimensions provide valuable information on the overall size of the individual but do not provide good guidance on shape or posture. This study introduced the development of a parametric model that statistically predicts individual child body shapes in seated postures with a few given parameters.

Methods: Surface geometry data from a laser scanner of children ages 3 to 11 (n = 135) were standardized by a 2-level fitting method using intermediate templates. The standardized data were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA) to efficiently describe the body shape variance. Parameters such as stature, body mass index, erect sitting height, and 2 posture variables related to torso recline and lumbar spine flexion were associated with the PCA model using regression.

Results: When the original scan data were compared with the predictions of the model using the given subject dimensions, the average root mean square error for the torso was 9.5 mm, and the 95th percentile error was 17.35 mm.

Conclusions: For the first time, a statistical model of child body shapes in seated postures is available. This parametric model allows the generation of an infinite number of virtual children spanning a wide range of body sizes and postures. The results have broad applicability in product design and safety analysis. Future work is needed to improve the representation of hands and feet and to extend the age range of the model. The model presented in this article is publicly available online through HumanShape.org.     

Experimental evidence that keeping eggs dry is a mechanism for the antimicrobial effects of avian incubation

Avian incubation dramatically reduces the abundance and diversity of microbial assemblages on eggshells, and this effect has been hypothesized as an adaptive explanation for partial incubation, the bouts of incubation that some birds perform during the egg-laying period. However, the mechanisms for these antimicrobial effects are largely unknown. In this study, we hypothesized that microbial inhibition is partly achieved through removal of liquid water, which generally enhances microbial growth, from eggshells, and experimentally tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, we placed the first- and second-laid eggs of tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) clutches in unincubated holding nests with either ambient or increased water on eggshells. Second, we added water to eggshells in naturally partially incubated nests. We compared microbial growth on shells during a 5-day experimental period and found that, as predicted, both unincubated groups had higher microbial growth than naturally partially incubated controls, and that only in the absence of incubation did wetted eggs have higher microbial growth than unwetted eggs. Thus, we have shown that water increases microbial growth on eggshells and that incubation nullifies these effects, suggesting that removal of water from egg surfaces is one proximate mechanism for the antimicrobial effects of incubation.     

Linking Biological Integrity and Watershed Models to Assess the Impacts of Historical Land Use and Climate Changes on Stream Health

Land use change and other human disturbances have significant impacts on physicochemical and biological conditions of stream systems. Meanwhile, linking these disturbances with hydrology and water quality conditions is challenged due to the lack of high-resolution datasets and the selection of modeling techniques that can adequately deal with the complex and nonlinear relationships of natural systems. This study addresses the above concerns by employing a watershed model to obtain stream flow and water quality data and fill a critical gap in data collection. The data were then used to estimate fish index of biological integrity (IBI) within the Saginaw Bay basin in Michigan. Three methods were used in connecting hydrology and water quality variables to fish measures including stepwise linear regression, partial least squares regression, and fuzzy logic. The IBI predictive model developed using fuzzy logic showed the best performance with the R ² = 0.48. The variables that identified as most correlated to IBI were average annual flow, average annual organic phosphorus, average seasonal nitrite, average seasonal nitrate, and stream gradient. Next, the predictions were extended to pre-settlement (mid-1800s) land use and climate conditions. Results showed overall significantly higher IBI scores under the pre-settlement land use scenario for the entire watershed. However, at the fish sampling locations, there was no significant difference in IBI. Results also showed that including historical climate data have strong influences on stream flow and water quality measures that interactively affect stream health; therefore, should be considered in developing baseline ecological conditions.     

Amsterdam: planning and policy for the ideal city?

Is Amsterdam the “ideal city?” Many of the social, economic, and environmental problems facing Amsterdam are considerably less than those in cities in the USA, and in most cases, Western Europe. Amsterdam, at this moment in history, might be the world's greatest city because of its ability to ensure basic necessities, freedom, and creativity. Tolerance of drugs, sexual freedom, along with the integration of different races helps reduce many of the “social problems” faced by most cities. We have compared, on a per capita basis, differences between Amsterdam/Holland and the USA. The Netherlands is a tiny country, and comparisons are made on a city and per capita numbers at the national level. Our data show that Amsterdam has lower crime, murder, rape, drug usage (cocaine, marijuana), teenage pregnancy, diabetes, obesity, suicide, abortion rates, infant mortality, dependence on fossil fuels, and homelessness, and racial segregation is considerably less. People live longer because of Amsterdam's walkability and bike usage and access to parks. Indeed, the Netherlands leads both Western European and the USA in the proportion of trips made walking and bicycling, with significantly reduced car dependency. Ghettos are nearly non-existent compared with the segregation in the 1940s/1950s. Quality housing is supplied to everyone that gives pride of place compared with the stark, cold, and institutional “projects” provided by the US federal government. Amsterdam leads Western Europe by 35% in social housing, compared with runner-up UK, which has significantly less. The modernism of the 1960s where the poor were warehoused is nearly all gone. People living in Amsterdam seem more tolerant, secure, happier, and healthier compared with citizens in the USA. Great cities provide opportunities for all citizens to enhance their lives and ensure an unrivalled level of freedom. We demonstrate that social and environmental justice are tied together. Amsterdam is by no means perfect, but in comparison with many other democratic industrial cities, it is a far better place for citizens of all races, religions, and incomes.