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241.
Marcel Kok Matthias Lüdeke Paul Lucas Till Sterzel Carsten Walther Peter Janssen Diana Sietz Indra de Soysa 《Regional Environmental Change》2016,16(1):229-243
This paper presents a method for the analysis of socio-ecological patterns of vulnerability of people being at risk of losing their livelihoods as a consequence of global environmental change. This method fills a gap in methodologies for vulnerability analysis by providing generalizations of the factors that shape vulnerability in specific socio-ecological systems and showing their spatial occurrence. The proposed method consists of four steps that include both quantitative and qualitative analyses. To start, the socio-ecological system exposed to global environmental changes that will be studied needs to be determined. This could, for example, be farmers in drylands, urban populations in coastal areas and forest-dependent people in the tropics. Next, the core dimensions that shape vulnerability in the socio-ecological system of interest need to be defined. Subsequently, a set of spatially explicit indicators that reflect these core dimensions is selected. Cluster analysis is used for grouping the indicator data. The clusters found, referred to as vulnerability profiles, describe different typical groupings of conditions and processes that create vulnerability in the socio-ecological system under study, and their spatial distribution is provided. Interpretation and verification of these profiles is the last step in the analysis. We illustrate the application of this method by analysing the patterns of vulnerability of (smallholder) farmers in drylands. We identify eight distinct vulnerability profiles in drylands that together provide a global overview of different processes taking place and sub-national detail of their distribution. By overlaying the spatial distribution of these profiles with specific outcome indicators such as conflict occurrence or migration, the method can also be used to understand these phenomena better. Analysis of vulnerability profiles will in a next step be used as a basis for identifying responses to reduce vulnerability, for example, to facilitate the transfer of best practices to reduce vulnerability between different places. 相似文献
242.
The world’s power systems are facing a structural change including liberalization of markets and integration of renewable energy sources. This paper describes the challenges that lie ahead in this process and points out avenues for overcoming different problems at different scopes, ranging from individual homes to international super-grids. We apply energy system models at those different scopes and find a trade-off between technical and social complexity. Small-scale systems would require technological breakthroughs, especially for storage, but individual agents can and do already start to build and operate such systems. In contrast, large-scale systems could potentially be more efficient from a techno-economic point of view. However, new political frameworks are required that enable long-term cooperation among sovereign entities through mutual trust. Which scope first achieves its breakthrough is not clear yet. 相似文献
243.
Aarno T. Kotilainen Laura Arppe Slawomir Dobosz Eystein Jansen Karoline Kabel Juha Karhu Mia M. Kotilainen Antoon Kuijpers Bryan C. Lougheed H. E. Markus Meier Matthias Moros Thomas Neumann Christian Porsche Niels Poulsen Peter Rasmussen Sofia Ribeiro Bjørg Risebrobakken Daria Ryabchuk Semjon Schimanke Ian Snowball Mikhail Spiridonov Joonas J. Virtasalo Kaarina Weckström Andrzej Witkowski Vladimir Zhamoida 《Ambio》2014,43(1):60-68
Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change. 相似文献
244.
Julian Adolphs Frank Kleinjung Jorge Numata Hans Mielke Klaus Abraham Helmut Schafft Christine Müller-Graf Matthias Greiner 《Chemosphere》2013
When food producing animals are contaminated with PCDD/F congeners, information on the contaminant’s concentration in the bodies of the animals at time of slaughter is needed for risk management purposes. We have developed a mathematical model for the kinetics of PCDD/Fs in growing pigs in case of contaminated feed fed for a limited duration of time. This model allows the prediction of concentrations in body fat. It considers absorption fractions of PCDD/Fs, clearance by metabolism, dilution by growth and excretion through fecal fat. The model parameters were calibrated by fitting the model to experimental data. On the basis of this toxicokinetic model a probabilistic model has been constructed. The probabilistic model handles the parameters with appropriate probability distributions and Monte-Carlo simulation technique, providing for realistic situations with many animals and a range of contaminations and feeding intervals. We applied the new model to describe the German dioxin incident of winter 2010/2011 and discuss its viability as decision tool. The approach demonstrated here is a showcase how a risk assessment in the case of contaminated feeding can be performed. 相似文献
245.
Artigas J Arts G Babut M Caracciolo AB Charles S Chaumot A Combourieu B Dahllöf I Despréaux D Ferrari B Friberg N Garric J Geffard O Gourlay-Francé C Hein M Hjorth M Krauss M De Lange HJ Lahr J Lehtonen KK Lettieri T Liess M Lofts S Mayer P Morin S Paschke A Svendsen C Usseglio-Polatera P van den Brink N Vindimian E Williams R 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2012,160(1):201-206
New concerns about biodiversity, ecosystem services and human health triggered several new regulations increasing the need for sound ecotoxicological risk assessment. The PEER network aims to share its view on the research issues that this challenges. PEER scientists call for an improved biologically relevant exposure assessment. They promote comprehensive effect assessment at several biological levels. Biological traits should be used for Environmental risk assessment (ERA) as promising tools to better understand relationships between structure and functioning of ecosystems. The use of modern high throughput methods could also enhance the amount of data for a better risk assessment. Improved models coping with multiple stressors or biological levels are necessary to answer for a more scientifically based risk assessment. Those methods must be embedded within life cycle analysis or economical models for efficient regulations. Joint research programmes involving humanities with ecological sciences should be developed for a sound risk management. 相似文献
246.
Quang A. Dang Matthias Ehrhardt Gia Lich Tran Duc Le 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2012,17(3):275-288
This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and algorithms for the problem of oil pollution. For solving this task, we
derive the adjoint problem for the advection–diffusion equation describing the propagation of oil slick after an accident,
which we call the main problem. We prove a fundamental equality between the solutions of the main and the adjoint problems.
Based on this equality, we propose a novel method for the identification of the pollution source location and the accident
time of oil emission. This approach is illustrated on an example for an accident in the offshore of the central part of the
Vietnamese coast. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Besides, the method is verified
for 1D model of substance propagation. 相似文献
247.
Mark A. K. Gillespie Matthias Alfredsson Isabel C. Barrio Joe Bowden Peter Convey Stephen J. Coulson Lauren E. Culler Martin T. Dahl Kathryn M. Daly Seppo Koponen Sarah Loboda Yuri Marusik Jonas P. Sandstrm Derek S. Sikes Jozef Slowik Toke T. Hye 《Ambio》2020,49(3):704-717
The terrestrial chapter of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme (CBMP) has the potential to bring international multi-taxon, long-term monitoring together, but detailed fundamental species information for Arctic arthropods lags far behind that for vertebrates and plants. In this paper, we demonstrate this major challenge to the CBMP by focussing on spiders (Order: Araneae) as an example group. We collate available circumpolar data on the distribution of spiders and highlight the current monitoring opportunities and identify the key knowledge gaps to address before monitoring can become efficient. We found spider data to be more complete than data for other taxa, but still variable in quality and availability between Arctic regions, highlighting the need for greater international co-operation for baseline studies and data sharing. There is also a dearth of long-term datasets for spiders and other arthropod groups from which to assess status and trends of biodiversity. Therefore, baseline studies should be conducted at all monitoring stations and we make recommendations for the development of the CBMP in relation to terrestrial arthropods more generally. 相似文献
248.
Schröter Matthias Kraemer Roland Remme Roy P. van Oudenhoven Alexander P. E. 《Ambio》2020,49(5):1100-1113
Ambio - Ecosystem service assessments rarely consider flows between distant regions. Hence, telecoupling effects such as conservation burdens in distant ecosystems are ignored. We identified... 相似文献
249.
C. Emi Fergus J. Rene Brooks Philip R. Kaufmann Alan T. Herlihy Amina I. Pollard Marc H. Weber Steven G. Paulsen 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2020,56(3):450-471
Establishing baseline hydrologic characteristics for lakes in the United States (U.S.) is critical to evaluate changes to lake hydrology. We used the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency National Lakes Assessment 2007 and 2012 surveys to assess hydrologic characteristics of a population of ~45,000 lakes in the conterminous U.S. based on probability samples of ~1,000 lakes/yr distributed across nine ecoregions. Lake hydrologic study variables include water‐level drawdown (i.e., vertical decline and horizontal littoral exposure) and two water stable isotope‐derived parameters: evaporation‐to‐inflow (E:I) and water residence time. We present (1) national and regional distributions of the study variables for both natural and man‐made lakes and (2) differences in these characteristics between 2007 and 2012. In 2007, 59% of the population of U.S. lakes had Greater than normal or Excessive drawdown relative to water levels in ecoregional reference lakes with minimal human disturbances; whereas in 2012, only 20% of lakes were significantly drawn down beyond normal ranges. Water isotope‐derived variables did not differ significantly between survey years in contrast to drawdown. Median E:I was 20% indicating that flow‐through processes dominated lake water regimes. For 75% of U.S. lakes, water residence time was less than one year and was longer in natural vs. man‐made lakes. Our study provides baseline ranges to assess local and regional lake hydrologic status and inform management decisions in changing environmental conditions. 相似文献
250.
Singapore has many environmental accomplishments to its credit. Accessible data on air quality indicates that all criteria pollutants satisfy both U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standards and guidelines, respectively. The exception is PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm), which is not currently considered a criteria pollutant in Singapore but may potentially be the major local air pollution problem and cause for health concern. Levels of other airborne pollutants as well as their physical and chemical processes associated with local formation, transformation, dispersion, and deposition are not known. According to available emission inventories, Singapore contribution to the total atmospheric pollution and carbon budget at the regional and global scales is small. Emissions per unit gross domestic product (GDP) are low compared with other countries, although Singapore's per-capita GDP and per-capita emissions are among the highest in the world. Some information is available on health effects, but the impacts on the ecosystem and the complex interactions of air pollution and climate change at a regional level are also unknown. This article reviews existing available information on atmospheric pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and proposes a multipollutant approach to greenhouse gas mitigation and local air quality. Singapore, by reducing its per-capita emissions, increasing the availability of information (e.g., through regularly publishing hourly and/or daily PM2.5 concentrations) and developing a research agenda in this area, would likely be seen to be a model of a high-density, livable, and sustainable city in Southeast Asia and other tropical regions worldwide. 相似文献