Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

Regional carbon footprints of households: a German case study

Households are either directly or indirectly responsible for the highest share of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, programs helping to improve human consumption habits have been identified as a comparatively cost-effective way to reduce household emissions significantly. Recently, various studies have determined strong regional differences in household carbon footprints, yet a case study for Germany has not been conducted. Local information and policies directed at household consumption in Germany thus devoid of any foundation. In this paper, we analyze the impact of different criteria such as location, income and size on household carbon footprints in Germany and demonstrate how the impact of GHG mitigation opportunities varies for different population segments. We use a multi-region input output hybrid LCA approach to developing a regionalized household carbon footprint calculator for Germany that considers 16 sub-national regions, 15 different household sizes, and eight different income and age categories. The model reveals substantial regional differences in magnitude and composition of household carbon footprints, essentially influenced by two criteria: income and size. The highest income household is found to emit 4.25 times as much CO₂e than the lowest. We identify indirect emissions from consumption as the largest share of household carbon footprints, although this is subject to fluctuation based on household type. Due primarily to local differences in vehicle availability, income and nutrition, an average household in Baden-Wuerttemberg is found to have 25 % higher carbon footprint than its Mecklenburg-West Pomeranian counterpart. Based on the results of this study, we discuss policy options for household carbon mitigation in Germany.     

Acute and chronic toxicity of benzotriazoles to aquatic organisms

Purpose

Resulting from their intensive use as corrosion inhibitors in aircraft deicing and anti-icing fluids (ADAF) and for silver protection in dishwasher detergents benzotriazoles (BTs) are widespread in European surface waters. The current study aimed on an ecotoxicological characterization of 1H-benzotriazole (1H-BT) and 5-methyl-1H-benzotriazole (5MBT).

Methods

Acute and chronic OECD guideline tests were conducted with primary producers (Desmodesmus subspicatus, Lemna minor) and two daphnia species (Daphnia magna, Daphnia galeata) to characterize the hazard of these chemicals. Additionally, the estrogenic activity of both BTs was analyzed in vitro using a recombinant yeast estrogen screen (YES).

Results

Both BTs revealed significant effects in acute and chronic experiments, but exhibited no estrogenic activity in the YES. The algal growth test displayed an inhibited cell number increase with effect concentration (EC) values of EC₁₀ 1.18 and 2.86?mg?l^-1 for 1H-BT and 5MBT, respectively. In the Lemna test, EC₁₀ values were 3.94?mg?l^-1 (1H-BT) and 2.11?mg?l^-1 (5MBT). D. magna was also affected with EC₅₀ (48?h) values of 107?mg?l^-1 for 1H-BT and 51.6?mg?l^-1 for 5MBT. D. galeata was more sensitive with an EC₅₀ (48?h) of 14.7?mg 1H-BT l^-1 and 8.13?mg 5MBT l^-1. In the 21-day reproduction tests with D. magna, the EC₁₀ for 5MBT was 5.93?mg?l^-1 while 1H-BT showed no adverse effects. D. galeata turned out to be more sensitive in the chronic study with EC₁₀ values of 0.97?mg?l^-1 for 1H-BT and 0.40?mg?l^-1 for 5 MBT.

Conclusion

Because BTs are regularly found in the aquatic environment at lower ??g l^-1 concentrations reflecting their persistence and poor elimination during wastewater treatment processes, a preliminary risk assessment was conducted. There is little indication that BTs pose a risk for aquatic ecosystems at current exposure levels during most of the year. However, it cannot be excluded that in winter with a higher usage of ADAFs environmental concentrations may well exceed the level that is considered safe for aquatic organisms.     

Armed conflict distribution in global drylands through the lens of a typology of socio-ecological vulnerability

Motivated by an inconclusive debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict, and common reliance on national data and linear models, we investigate the relationship between socio-ecological vulnerability and armed conflict in global drylands on a subnational level. Our study emanates from a global typology of smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to environmental and socioeconomic stresses in drylands. This typology is composed of eight typical value combinations of variables indicating environmental scarcities, resource overuse, and poverty-related factors in a widely subnational spatial resolution. We investigate the relationships between the spatial distribution of these combinations, or vulnerability profiles, and geocoded armed conflicts, and find that conflicts are heterogeneously distributed according to these profiles. Four profiles distributed across low- and middle-income countries comprise all drylands conflicts. Comparing models for conflict incidence using logit regression and receiver operator characteristic analysis based on (1) the set of all seven indicators as independent variables and (2) a single, only vulnerability profile-based variable proves that the nonlinear typology-based variable is the better explanans for conflict incidence. Inspection of the profiles’ value combinations makes this understandable: A systematic explanation of conflict incidence and absence across all degrees of natural resource endowments is only reached through varying importance of poverty and resource overuse depending on the level of endowment. These are nonlinear interactions between the explaining variables. Conflict does not generally increase with resource scarcity or overuse. Comparison with conflict case studies showed both good agreement with our results and promise in expanding the set of indicators. Based on our findings and supporting literature, we argue that part of the debate over implications of resource scarcity for violent conflict in drylands may be resolved by acknowledging and accounting for nonlinear processes.     

Where can cone penetrometer technology be applied? Development of a map of Europe regarding the soil penetrability

Over the past decades, significant efforts have been invested in the development of push-in technology for site characterization and monitoring for geotechnical and environmental purposes and have especially been undertaken in the Netherlands and Germany. These technologies provide the opportunity for faster, cheaper, and collection of more reliable subsurface data. However, to maximize the technology both from a development and implementation point of view, it is necessary to have an overview of the areas suitable for the application of this type of technology. Such an overview is missing and cannot simply be read from existing maps and material. This paper describes the development of a map showing the feasibility or applicability of Direct Push/Cone Penetrometer Technology (DPT/CPT) in Europe which depends on the subsurface and its extremely varying properties throughout Europe. Subsurface penetrability is dependent on a range of factors that have not been mapped directly or can easily be inferred from existing databases, especially the maximum depth reachable would be of interest. Among others, it mainly depends on the geology, the soil mechanical properties, the type of equipment used as well as soil-forming processes. This study starts by looking at different geological databases available at the European scale. Next, a scheme has been developed linking geological properties mapped to geotechnical properties to determine basic penetrability categories. From this, a map of soil penetrability is developed and presented. Validating the output by performing field tests was beyond the scope of this study, but for the country of the Netherlands, this map has been compared against a database containing actual cone penetrometer depth data to look for possible contradictory results that would negate the approach. The map for the largest part of Europe clearly shows that there is a much wider potential for the application of Direct Push Technology than is currently seen. The study also shows that there is a lack of large-scale databases that contain depth-resolved data as well as soil mechanical and physical properties that can be used for engineering purposes in relation to the subsurface.     

Fine Particles and Oxidant Pollution: Developing an Agenda for Cooperative Research

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a background for the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) cooperative program integrating studies of O₃ and PM_{2 5}. It discusses several important aspects for rationalizing NARSTO's trinational investigative approach, including (1) an outlook on the state of knowledge about fine particles in the troposphere and their origins in Canada, Mexico, and the United States; (2) the need for enhancement and strengthening of key field measurements in relation to tropospheric chemistry and a health effects component; and (3) the use of a central theme for advancing air quality modeling using evolving techniques to integrate and guide key process-oriented field campaigns. The importance of organizing a scientific program to acquire “policy-relevant” information is stressed, noting cooperative research directions that address combined PM_2.5 and O₃ issues, illustrated through exploration of hypothetical pathways of PM_2.5 response to choices of O₃ and PM precursor emission reductions. The information needed for PM_2.5 research is noted to intersect in many cases with those of O₃, but diverge in other cases. Accounting for these distinctions is important for developing NARSTO's strategy over the next decade.     

A Qualitative Approach to Evaluating the Anticipated Reliability of a Photochemical Air Quality Simulation Model for a Selected Application

ABSTRACT

Photochemical air quality simulation models are now used widely in evaluating the merits of alternative emissions control strategies on spatial scales from metropolitan to sub-continental. Greatly varying levels of resources have been available to support modeling, from relatively comprehensive databases and evaluation of performance to a paucity of aerometric data for developing model inputs. Where data are sparse, many alternative outcomes are consistent with the knowledge at hand. Where performance evaluation is inadequately supported, the probability of error may be high. In each instance, uncertainties may be large when compared with the signal of interest, and thus confidence in the reliability of the model as an estimator of future air quality may come into question.

This paper proposes a qualitative procedure for assessing whether a particular application of a modeling system is likely to be potentially unreliable, suggesting that either (1) modification and further evaluation is needed, if supportable, prior to adoption for regulatory application; or (2) the model should not be used if improvement is not supportable. The procedure is proposed for use by policy-makers, staffs of public agencies, air quality managers, environmental staffs of industrial organizations, and other interested parties. The proposed use of the procedure is (1) to assess, a priori, whether a proposed application is likely to be judged questionable or unacceptably uncertain in outcome; and (2) to provide, a posteriori, a basis for judging quickly the likely quality of model performance. The procedure is presented with tropospheric ozone as the pollutant of concern. With adjustments, however, the procedure should be applicable for particu-late matter and other pollutants of interest.     

The Use of Ambient Measurements To Identify which Precursor Species Limit Aerosol Nitrate Formation

ABSTRACT

A thermodynamic equilibrium model was used to investigate the response of aerosol NO₃ to changes in concentrations of HNO₃, NH₃, and H₂SO₄. Over a range of temperatures and relative humidities (RHs), two parameters provided sufficient information for indicating the qualitative response of aerosol NO₃. The first was the excess of aerosol NH₄ ⁺ plus gas-phase NH₃ over the sum of HNO₃, particulate NO₃, and particulate SO₄ ^2- concentrations. The second was the ratio of particulate to total NO₃ concentrations. Computation of these quantities from ambient measurements provides a means to rapidly analyze large numbers of samples and identify cases in which inorganic aerosol NO₃ formation is limited by the availability of NH₃. Example calculations are presented using data from three field studies. The predictions of the indicator variables and the equilibrium model are compared.     

Assessment of the natural attenuation of chlorinated ethenes in an anaerobic contaminated aquifer in the Bitterfeld/Wolfen area using stable isotope techniques, microcosm studies and molecular biomarkers

The in situ degradation of chlorinated ethenes was assessed in an anaerobic aquifer using stable isotope fractionation approaches, microcosm studies and taxon specific detection of specific dehalogenating groups of bacteria. The aquifer in the Bitterfeld/Wolfen region in Germany contained all chlorinated ethenes, benzene and toluene as contaminants. The concentrations and isotope composition of the chlorinated ethenes indicated biodegradation of the contaminants. Microcosm studies confirmed the presence of in situ microbial communities capable of the complete dechlorination of tetrachloroethene. Taxon specific investigation of the microbial communities indicated the presence of various potential dechlorinating organisms including Dehalococcoides, Desulfuromonas, Desulfitobacterium and Dehalobacter. The integrated approach, using metabolite spectra, molecular marker analysis and isotope studies, provided several lines of evidence for natural attenuation of the chlorinated ethenes.