Detecting the order of population dynamics from time series: nonlinearity causes spurious diagnosis

Partial autocorrelation and partial rate correlation functions are frequently used to detect the order of the endogenous process generating an observed population time series. Here we uncover a problem with this approach: the diagnosis of spurious second order autocorrelation due to strong nonlinearity in a first order endogenous process, as exemplified by time series data from a population of Soay sheep. Causes and a possible solution are discussed.     

Distribution of contaminant trace metals inadvertently provided by phosphorus fertilisers: movement,chemical fractions and mass balances in contrasting acidic soils

The frequent use of phosphorus (P) fertilisers accompanied by nitrogen and potassium sources may lead to a serious long-term environmental issue because of the presence of potentially hazardous trace metals (TM) in P fertilisers and unknown effects on the TM chemical fractions in agricultural soils. A 16-month-long column experiment was conducted to investigate the mobility and chemical forms of Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, and Zn introduced into a Mollisol and an Andisol through surface incorporation (0–2 cm) of triple superphosphate (TSP) fertiliser. The effects of urea and potassium chloride (KCl) applications were investigated as well. After 15 cycles of 300-mm irrigation, TSP addition increased the 4 M HNO₃ extractable TM concentration in the upper (0–5 cm) section of soils. Beyond this depth, metals showed no significant mobility, with minimal leaching losses (<?1.9%, 25-cm depth). The TM chemical forms in the 0–5 cm section were significantly (p?<?0.01) affected by the soil type and fertilisers addition. Cadmium, Ni, and Zn were the elements which appeared in a larger proportion (up to 30%) in the most labile fraction (KNO₃ extractable) in fertilised soils. The impact of urea depended on the nitrification-related changes in soil pH, while fertilisation with KCl tended to increase the KNO₃ fraction of most metals probably due to K⁺ exchange reactions. Chromium remained minimally affected by the urea and KCl applications since this contaminant is strongly bound to the less labile solid phases. The low mobility of TM was governed mainly by their interaction with the solid phases rather than by their speciation at soil pH. The mass balance showed that the geochemical processes underwent in time by the P fertiliser increased the amount of TM extracted by the chemical fractionation scheme, therefore the reaction period of TSP with soil particles should be taken into account for evaluating TM availability. Long-term soil fertilisation could inadvertently contribute to an increased concentration and availability of these P fertilisers-born contaminants in the cultivated layer of acidic soils.     

Conserving alpha and beta diversity in wood-production landscapes

International demand for wood and other forest products continues to grow rapidly, and uncertainties remain about how animal communities will respond to intensifying resource extraction associated with woody bioenergy production. We examined changes in alpha and beta diversity of bats, bees, birds, and reptiles across wood production landscapes in the southeastern United States, a biodiversity hotspot that is one of the principal sources of woody biomass globally. We sampled across a spatial gradient of paired forest land-uses (representing pre and postharvest) that allowed us to evaluate biological community changes resulting from several types of biomass harvest. Short-rotation practices and residue removal following clearcuts were associated with reduced alpha diversity (−14.1 and −13.9 species, respectively) and lower beta diversity (i.e., Jaccard dissimilarity) between land-use pairs (0.46 and 0.50, respectively), whereas midrotation thinning increased alpha (+3.5 species) and beta diversity (0.59). Over the course of a stand rotation in a single location, biomass harvesting generally led to less biodiversity. Cross-taxa responses to resource extraction were poorly predicted by alpha diversity: correlations in responses between taxonomic groups were highly variable (−0.2 to 0.4) with large uncertainties. In contrast, beta diversity patterns were highly consistent and predictable across taxa, where correlations in responses between taxonomic groups were all positive (0.05–0.4) with more narrow uncertainties. Beta diversity may, therefore, be a more reliable and information-rich indicator than alpha diversity in understanding animal community response to landscape change. Patterns in beta diversity were primarily driven by turnover instead of species loss or gain, indicating that wood extraction generates habitats that support different biological communities.