Probability analyses of combining background concentrations with model-predicted concentrations

In order to calculate total concentrations for comparison to ambient air quality standards, monitored background concentrations are often combined with model predicted concentrations. Models have low skill in predicting the locations or time series of observed concentrations. Further, adding fixed points on the probability distributions of monitored and predicted concentrations is very conservative and not mathematically correct. Simply adding the 99th percentile predicted to the 99th percentile background will not yield the 99th percentile of the combined distributions. Instead, an appropriate distribution can be created by calculating all possible pairwise combinations of the 1-hr daily maximum observed background and daily maximum predicted concentration, from which a 99th percentile total value can be obtained. This paper reviews some techniques commonly used for determining background concentrations and combining modeled and background concentrations. The paper proposes an approach to determine the joint probabilities of occurrence of modeled and background concentrations. The pairwise combinations approach yields a more realistic prediction of total concentrations than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance approach and agrees with the probabilistic form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Implications: EPA's current approaches to determining background concentrations for compliance modeling purposes often lead to “double counting” of background concentrations and actual plume impacts and thus lead to overpredictions of total impacts. Further, the current Tier 1 approach of simply adding the top ends of the background and model predicted concentrations (e.g., adding the 99th percentiles of these distributions together) results in design value concentrations at probabilities in excess of the form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.     

The electron density distribution in pyridinium and bipyridylium compounds and its relevance to their adsorption by expanding lattice clays

Abstract

Charge distributions in 1, 1'‐ethylene‐2, 2'‐bipyridylium (diquat), 1,1'‐dimethyl‐4,4'‐bipyridylium (paraquat) and 1‐methylpyridinium organocations were calculated by a Complete Neglect of Differential Overlap semi‐empirical quantum mechanical procedure. The data show that the positive charges in the organocations are distributed around the molecules and are greatest in the positions ortho and para to the heterocyclic nitrogen atoms. Earlier interpretations of the mechanisms of adsorption of paraquat and diquat by soils and clays assumed that the charges were located in the heterocyclic nitrogen atoms. Here some consideration is given to the influence of the charge delocalizations on the processes of adsorption by montmorillonite and vermiculite clay preparations.     

Mutagenicity evaluation of chemical pesticides

Abstract

Over the last few decades, the use of chemical pesticides has increased dramatically in the U.S. This relatively sudden increase greatly concerns the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), since it has the responsibility for ensuring the safety of all pesticides used in the U.S. In response to this concern, EPA has established a review program, the Rebuttable Presumption Against Registration (RPAR), for periodically reassessing the mutagenic and carcinogenic potential of pesticide compounds.

This paper presents a review and evaluation of the data reported in the literature on six chemical pesticides suspect for mutagenic potential. The pesticide chemicals discussed are maleic hydrazide; rotenone; monuron; diallate; triallate, and benomyl.     

Feral swine disturbance at important archaeological sites

Feral swine are well known as environmentally destructive invasive animals in many areas around the world, where they degrade native habitats, harm rare plant and animal species, damage agricultural interests, and spread disease. We provide the first quantification of their potential as agents of disturbance at archaeological sites. Our study was conducted in south-central Florida at Avon Park Air Force Range, a base comprising over 40,000 ha and containing many archaeological sites. To determine the identifiable prevalence of feral swine disturbance, we examined 36 sites registered with the Florida State Historic Preservation Office and also eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP). Moreover, we evaluated the extent of swine disturbance at a prehistoric site of extraordinary significance to Florida’s prehistory, “Dead Cow.” Fifteen of the 36 NRHP-eligible sites (42 %) had some level of swine disturbance, including 14 of 30 (47 %) sites known to have artifacts within 20 cm of the surface (well within swine rooting depths). At the Dead Cow site, we documented disturbance at 74 % of shovel test points. Sites with shallow artifact depositions appeared highly vulnerable to disturbance by feral swine, threatening destruction of artifact stratigraphy and provenience. Our observations likely are a minimal representation of accumulated damage. These irreplaceable sites tell the area’s land use story across the millennia. That they are under threat from feral swine should serve broad notice of potential threats that feral swine may pose to archaeological sites globally, making effective swine management imperative for site protection.     

An integrated approach to model the biomagnification of organic pollutants in aquatic food webs of the Yangtze Three Gorges Reservoir ecosystem using adapted pollution scenarios

The impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) at the Yangtze River caused large flooding of urban, industrial, and agricultural areas, and profound land use changes took place. Consequently, substantial amounts of organic and inorganic pollutants were released into the reservoir. Additionally, contaminants and nutrients are entering the reservoir by drift, drainage, and runoff from adjacent agricultural areas as well as from sewage of industry, aquacultures, and households. The main aim of the presented research project is a deeper understanding of the processes that determines the bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants, i.e., mainly pesticides, in aquatic food webs under the newly developing conditions of the TGR. The project is part of the Yangtze-Hydro environmental program, financed by the German Ministry of Education and Science. In order to test combinations of environmental factors like nutrients and pollution, we use an integrated modeling approach to study the potential accumulation and biomagnification. We describe the integrative modeling approach and the consecutive adaption of the AQUATOX model, used as modeling framework for ecological risk assessment. As a starting point, pre-calibrated simulations were adapted to Yangtze-specific conditions (regionalization). Two exemplary food webs were developed by a thorough review of the pertinent literature. The first typical for the flowing conditions of the original Yangtze River and the Daning River near the city of Wushan, and the second for the stagnant reservoir characteristics of the aforementioned region that is marked by an intermediate between lake and large river communities of aquatic organisms. In close cooperation with German and Chinese partners of the Yangtze-Hydro Research Association, other site-specific parameters were estimated. The MINIBAT project contributed to the calibration of physicochemical and bathymetric parameters, and the TRANSMIC project delivered hydrodynamic models for water volume and flow velocity conditions. The research questions were firstly focused on the definition of scenarios that could depict representative situations regarding food webs, pollution, and flow conditions in the TGR. The food webs and the abiotic site conditions in the main study area near the city of Wushan that determine the environmental preconditions for the organisms were defined. In our conceptual approach, we used the pesticide propanil as a model substance.     

Solution by dilution?—A review on the pollution status of the Yangtze River

The Yangtze River has been a source of life and prosperity for the Chinese people for centuries and is a habitat for a remarkable variety of aquatic species. But the river suffers from huge amounts of urban sewage, agricultural effluents, and industrial wastewater as well as ship navigation wastes along its course. With respect to the vast amounts of water and sediments discharged by the Yangtze River, it is reasonable to ask whether the pollution problem may be solved by simple dilution. This article reviews the past two decades of published research on organic pollutants in the Yangtze River and several adjacent water bodies connected to the main stream, according to a holistic approach. Organic pollutant levels and potential effects of water and sediments on wildlife and humans, measured in vitro, in vivo, and in situ, were critically reviewed. The contamination with organic pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/polychlorinated dibenzofurans, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), and others, of water and sediment along the river was described. Especially Wuhan section and the Yangtze Estuary exhibited stronger pollution than other sections. Bioassays, displaying predominantly the endpoints mutagenicity and endocrine disruption, applied at sediments, drinking water, and surface water indicated a potential health risk in several areas. Aquatic organisms exhibited detectable concentrations of toxic compounds like PCBs, OCPs, PBDEs, and PFCs. Genotoxic effects could also be assessed in situ in fish. To summarize, it can be stated that dilution reduces the ecotoxicological risk in the Yangtze River, but does not eliminate it. Keeping in mind an approximately 14 times greater water discharge compared to the major European river Rhine, the absolute pollution mass transfer of the Yangtze River is of severe concern for the environmental quality of its estuary and the East China Sea. Based on the review, further research needs have been identified.     

Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Relationships Between Nitrogen Transformation Rates and Gene Abundance in a Riparian Buffer Soil

Denitrification is a critical biogeochemical process that results in the conversion of nitrate to volatile products, and thus is a major route of nitrogen loss from terrestrial environments. Riparian buffers are an important management tool that is widely utilized to protect water from non-point source pollution. However, riparian buffers vary in their nitrate removal effectiveness, and thus there is a need for mechanistic studies to explore nitrate dynamics in buffer soils. The objectives of this study were to examine the influence of specific types of soluble organic matter on nitrate loss and nitrous oxide production rates, and to elucidate the relationships between these rates and the abundances of functional genes in a riparian buffer soil. Continuous-flow soil column experiments were performed to investigate the effect of three types of soluble organic matter (citric acid, alginic acid, and Suwannee River dissolved organic carbon) on rates of nitrate loss and nitrous oxide production. We found that nitrate loss rates increased as citric acid concentrations increased; however, rates of nitrate loss were weakly affected or not affected by the addition of the other types of organic matter. In all experiments, rates of nitrous oxide production mirrored nitrate loss rates. In addition, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was utilized to quantify the number of genes known to encode enzymes that catalyze nitrite reduction (i.e., nirS and nirK) in soil that was collected at the conclusion of column experiments. Nitrate loss and nitrous oxide production rates trended with copy numbers of both nir and 16s rDNA genes. The results suggest that low-molecular mass organic species are more effective at promoting nitrogen transformations than large biopolymers or humic substances, and also help to link genetic potential to chemical reactivity.     

Addressing climate change: Determinants of consumers' willingness to act and to support policy measures

Consumers influence climate change through their consumption patterns and their support or dismissal of climate mitigation policy measures. Both climate-friendly actions and policy support comprise a broad range of options, which vary in manifold ways and, therefore, might be influenced by different factors. The aims of the study were, therefore, two-fold: first, we intended to find a meaningful way to classify different ways of addressing climate change. Second, we aimed to examine which determinants influence people's willingness to engage in these behaviors. We conducted a large-scale mail survey in Switzerland in which respondents rated, among other items, their willingness to act or support a range of possible actions and mitigations measures. A principal component analysis indicated that a distinction in terms of a behavior's directness as well as a differentiation according to perceived costs seem to be appropriate to classify climate-friendly actions. Multiple regression analyses showed that perceived costs and perceived climate benefit turned out to be the strongest predictors for willingness to act or to support climate policy measures. The strong influence of perceived climate benefit might reflect a strategy of reducing cognitive dissonance. As high-cost behaviors are more difficult to adopt, consumers may reduce dissonance by dismissing high-cost behaviors as not effective in terms of climate mitigation. Political affiliation proved to be another strong determinant of willingness to act or support. Participants on the right wing were less willing to show indirect climate-friendly behaviors, change their mobility behaviors, and to support any type of climate mitigation policy measures. Climate-friendly low-cost behaviors, however, were not influenced by political affiliation.     

Sustainability and emerging issues in scholarly (self-)publishing

In American academic circles, peer-reviewed hard-copy book publishing remains a crucial part of the tenure and promotion process as well as a method of bestowing prestige upon authors accepted by university presses and other mainstream venues. Although a few respected individuals self-published as early as the seventeenth century, the emergence of desktop publishing during the 1980s led to hard-copy and virtual (self-)publishing venues of several kinds, including PDF formatting and the establishment of POD (print on demand) firms. Online, PDF, POD printing, and other challenges to traditional academic publishing can save money and improve efficiency as well as help sustain our forests and other natural resources.