Population dynamics and growth of juveniles of the velvet swimming crab Necora puber (Decapoda: Portunidae)

Recruitment variability plays a critical role in determining local population densities of benthic organisms, but extreme vulnerability at the onset of juvenile life is a trait that is largely responsible for population survivorship trends. The aim of the present study was to determine the role of juvenile recruitment in the population structure of Necora puber. Juveniles of N. puber were collected from the lower intertidal of rocky shores of Plymouth Sound (southwest coast of the UK) and monthly size–frequency distribution were used to determine the dynamics and the growth of the population. The parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth function were estimated (K=0.281 year⁻¹; t ₀=0.043; C=0.103; and t _s=0.268) assuming a L _∞=105 mm. Growth was markedly seasonal and present results indicated a slower juvenile growth rate than described previously for N. puber. The recruitment period was extensive and was two times higher in 2001 than in 2000 at the start of the 1+ year, but levelled off at the end of the 1+ year class on three of the four shores studied. Instantaneous mortality as high as 5.1 year⁻¹(99.4% year⁻¹) was observed during the higher recruitment year. Early juvenile mortality appears to be density dependent and a demographic bottleneck appears to limit the number of juveniles on some shores.     

Modeling species-habitat relationships with spatially autocorrelated observation data.

Spatial autocorrelation in wildlife observation data arises when extrinsic environmental processes and patterns that influence the spatial distribution of wildlife are themselves spatially structured, or when species are subject to intrinsic population processes, causing contagion or dispersion effects. Territoriality, Allee effects, dispersal limitations, and social clustering are examples of intrinsic processes. Both forms of autocorrelation can violate the assumptions of generalized linear regression models, resulting in biased estimation of model coefficients and diminished predictive performance. Such consequences may be avoided for extrinsic autocorrelation when autocorrelated environmental variables are available for use as model covariates, whereas intrinsic spatial autocorrelation requires an alternative modeling approach. The autologistic model provides an approach suited to the binary observations often obtained in wildlife surveys, but its performance has not been tested across widely varying sampling intensities or strengths of intrinsic spatial structure. Here we use simulated data to test the autologistic model under a range of sampling conditions. The autologistic model obtains better fits and substantially better predictive performance than the standard logistic regression model over the full range of sampling designs and intensities tested. We provide a simple Bayesian implementation of the autologistic model, which until now has not been achieved with standard statistical software alone. A step-by-step procedure is given for characterizing and modeling spatial autocorrelation in binary observation data, along with computer code for fitting autologistic models in WinBUGS, a freeware Bayesian analysis package. This approach avoids normal approximations to the pseudo-likelihood, in contrast to previous Bayesian applications of the autologistic model. We provide a sample application of the autologistic model, fitted to survey data for a gliding marsupial in southeastern Australia.     

Integrating economic costs into the analysis of flexible conservation management strategies.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.     

Urbanization affects stream ecosystem function by altering hydrology, chemistry, and biotic richness.

Catchment urbanization can alter physical, chemical, and biological attributes of stream ecosystems. In particular, changes in land use may affect the dynamics of organic matter decomposition, a measure of ecosystem function. We examined leaf-litter decomposition in 18 tributaries of the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. Land use in all 18 catchments ranged from 0% to 93% urban which translated to 0% to 66% total impervious area (TIA). Using a litter-bag technique, we measured mass loss, fungal biomass, and macroinvertebrate biomass for two leaf species (red maple [Acer rubrum] and sweetgum [Liquidambar styraciflua]). Rates of litter mass loss, which ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 per day for red maple and 0.006 to 0.018 per day for sweetgum, increased with impervious catchment area to levels of approximately 30-40% TIA and then decreased as impervious catchment area exceeded 40% TIA. Fungal biomass was also highest in streams draining catchments with intermediate levels of TIA. Macroinvertebrate biomass ranged from 17 to 354 mg/bag for red maple and from 15 to 399 mg/bag for sweetgum. Snail biomass and snail and total invertebrate richness were strongly related to breakdown rates among streams regardless of leaf species. Land-use and physical, chemical, and biological variables were highly intercorrelated. Principal-components analysis was therefore used to reduce the variables into several orthogonal axes. Using stepwise regression, we found that flow regime, snail biomass, snail and total invertebrate richness, and metal and nutrient content (which varied in a nonlinear manner with impervious surface area) were likely factors affecting litter breakdown rates in these streams.     

Biological invasions: recommendations for U.S. policy and management.

The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost-effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive-species management.     

Bottom-up regulation of plant community structure in an aridland ecosystem

We conducted a long-term rodent exclosure experiment in native grass- and shrub-dominated vegetation to evaluate the importance of top-down and bottom-up controls on plant community structure in a low-productivity aridland ecosystem. Using multiple regressions and analysis of covariance, we assessed how bottom-up precipitation pulses cascade through vegetation to affect rodent populations, how rodent populations affect plant community structure, and how rodents alter rates of plant community change over time. Our findings showed that bottom-up pulses cascade through the system, increasing the abundances of plants and rodents, and that rodents exerted no control on plant community structure and rate of change in grass-dominated vegetation, and only limited control in shrub-dominated vegetation. These results were discussed in the context of top-down effects on plant communities across broad gradients of primary productivity. We conclude that bottom-up regulation maintains this ecosystem in a state of low primary productivity that constrains the abundance of consumers such that they exert limited influence on plant community structure and dynamics.     

Denitrification in nitrate-rich streams: application of N2:Ar and 15N-tracer methods in intact cores.

Rates of benthic denitrification were measured using two techniques, membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS) and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), applied to sediment cores from two NO3(-)-rich streams draining agricultural land in the upper Mississippi River Basin. Denitrification was estimated simultaneously from measurements of N2:Ar (MIMS) and 15N[N2] (IRMS) after the addition of low-level 15NO3- tracer (15N:N = 0.03-0.08) in stream water overlying intact sediment cores. Denitrification rates ranged from about 0 to 4400 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1) in Sugar Creek and from 0 to 1300 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1) in Iroquois River, the latter of which possesses greater streamflow discharge and a more homogeneous streambed and water column. Within the uncertainties of the two techniques, there is good agreement between the MIMS and IRMS results, which indicates that the production of N2 by the coupled process of nitrification/denitrification was relatively unimportant and surface-water NO3- was the dominant source of NO3- for benthic denitrification in these streams. Variation in stream NO3- concentration (from about 20 micromol/L during low discharge to 1000 micromol/L during high discharge) was a significant control of benthic denitrification rates, judging from the more abundant MIMS data. The interpretation that NO3- concentration directly affects denitrification rate was corroborated by increased rates of denitrification in cores amended with NO3-. Denitrification in Sugar Creek removed < or = 11% per day of the instream NO3- in late spring and removed roughly 15-20% in late summer. The fraction of NO3- removed in Iroquois River was less than that of Sugar Creek. Although benthic denitrification rates were relatively high during periods of high stream flow, when NO3 concentrations were also high, the increase in benthic denitrification could not compensate for the much larger increase in stream NO3- fluxes during high flow. Consequently, fractional NO3- losses were relatively low during high flow.     

Inhibition of Amazon Deforestation and Fire by Parks and Indigenous Lands

Abstract:  Conservation scientists generally agree that many types of protected areas will be needed to protect tropical forests. But little is known of the comparative performance of inhabited and uninhabited reserves in slowing the most extreme form of forest disturbance: conversion to agriculture. We used satellite-based maps of land cover and fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon to compare the performance of large (>10,000 ha) uninhabited (parks) and inhabited (indigenous lands, extractive reserves, and national forests) reserves. Reserves significantly reduced both deforestation and fire. Deforestation was 1.7 (extractive reserves) to 20 (parks) times higher along the outside versus the inside of the reserve perimeters and fire occurrence was 4 (indigenous lands) to 9 (national forests) times higher. No strong difference in the inhibition of deforestation ( p = 0.11) or fire ( p = 0.34) was found between parks and indigenous lands. However, uninhabited reserves tended to be located away from areas of high deforestation and burning rates. In contrast, indigenous lands were often created in response to frontier expansion, and many prevented deforestation completely despite high rates of deforestation along their boundaries. The inhibitory effect of indigenous lands on deforestation was strong after centuries of contact with the national society and was not correlated with indigenous population density. Indigenous lands occupy one-fifth of the Brazilian Amazon—five times the area under protection in parks—and are currently the most important barrier to Amazon deforestation. As the protected-area network expands from 36% to 41% of the Brazilian Amazon over the coming years, the greatest challenge will be successful reserve implementation in high-risk areas of frontier expansion as indigenous lands are strengthened. This success will depend on a broad base of political support.     

Conservation Benefits of Temperate Marine Protected Areas: Variation among Fish Species

Abstract:  Marine protected areas, and other fishery management systems that impart partial or total protection from fishing, are increasingly advocated as an essential management tool to ensure the sustainable use of marine resources. Beneficial effects for fish species are well documented for tropical and reef systems, but the effects of marine protected areas remain largely untested in temperate waters. We compared trends in sport-fishing catches of nine fish species in an area influenced by a large (500-km²) towed-fishing-gear restriction zone and in adjacent areas under conventional fishery management controls. Over the period 1973–2002 the mean reported weight of above-average-sized (trophy) fish of species with early age at maturity and limited home range was greatest within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. The reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature early also declined less and more slowly over time within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. Importantly, the mean reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature late and those that undertake extensive spatial movements declined at the same rate in all areas. Hence these species are likely to require protected areas >500 km² for effective protection. Our results also indicated that fish species with a localized distribution or high site fidelity may require additional protection from sport fishing to prevent declines in the number or size of fish within the local population.     

A new synergetic paradigm in environmental numerical modeling: Hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components

A new type of environmental numerical models, hybrid environmental numerical models (HEMs) based on combining deterministic modeling and machine learning components, is introduced and formulated. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing HEM, as an optimal synergetic combination of the traditional deterministic/first principles modeling (like that used for solving PDEs on the sphere representing model dynamics of global climate models) and machine learning components (like accurate and fast neural network emulations of model physics or chemistry processes), are discussed. Examples of developed HEMs (hybrid climate models and a hybrid wind–wave ocean model) illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling extremely complex multidimensional systems.