Using variance components to estimate power in a hierarchically nested sampling design

We used variance components to assess allocation of sampling effort in a hierarchically nested sampling design for ongoing monitoring of early life history stages of the federally endangered Devils Hole pupfish (DHP) (Cyprinodon diabolis). Sampling design for larval DHP included surveys (5 days each spring 2007–2009), events, and plots. Each survey was comprised of three counting events, where DHP larvae on nine plots were counted plot by plot. Statistical analysis of larval abundance included three components: (1) evaluation of power from various sample size combinations, (2) comparison of power in fixed and random plot designs, and (3) assessment of yearly differences in the power of the survey. Results indicated that increasing the sample size at the lowest level of sampling represented the most realistic option to increase the survey’s power, fixed plot designs had greater power than random plot designs, and the power of the larval survey varied by year. This study provides an example of how monitoring efforts may benefit from coupling variance components estimation with power analysis to assess sampling design.     

Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

Maximum Plant-Community Endemism at Intermediate Intensities of Anthropogenic Disturbance in Bolivian Montane Forests

Abstract: I compared the endemism of four plant groups (Araceae, Bromeliaceae, Palmae, Pteridophyta) along gradients of increasing anthropogenic forest disturbance, from undisturbed mature forest to disturbed forest (logged, grazed, or burned), secondary forest, secondary scrub, and finally pasture, at 16 sites in the Bolivian Andes. I measured endemism as the mean inverse range size (number of 1° cells) of all species per study group encountered in each habitat and site. Overall, endemism was significantly higher in disturbed forest than in mature forest, but it declined in more strongly disturbed habitats. To explain the relationship of range size to habitat disturbance, I propose that endemic species are somewhat competitively inferior to other co-occurring taxa, limited in their ability to establish and maintain new populations following dispersal and thus to expand their ranges. Within their established ranges, endemic species depend on natural habitat disturbances to prevent their competitive exclusion by other species, so they profit from a certain level of anthropogenic disturbance. This pattern and the explanatory hypotheses should be subjected to critical evaluation. Although the pattern does not apply to every endemic tropical plant species, it indicates that conservation of part of the endemic tropical forest flora may be achieved in forest areas subject to sustainable forest use without the need to completely exclude human activities.     

Sources and factors controlling the disposal of biodegradable municipal solid waste in urban and rural areas of Cyprus

An inventory of sources of biodegradable municipal soil waste (BMSW) was constructed for urban and rural areas in the EU accession region of Cyprus. Composition analysis was performed on source-separated BMSW collected from households in the rural Ergates Community and an urban area within the Agglanjia Municipality. The data were statistically scrutinized to identify the main factors influencing the quantities of BMSW disposed by urban and rural communities in Cyprus. The results were extrapolated to predict the quantities and types of BMSW disposed by the entire communities. Significantly more BMSW was disposed in the urban area compared to the rural community due to lower diversion rates for green waste and the disposal of food waste from commercial sources. The quantity of food waste collected from households was influenced by socio-economic (household size, income, percentage of children) and behavioural (feeding of food waste to domestic animals, consuming processed 'ready' food) factors, whereas garden size, the type of vegetation, the reuse of trimmings and home composting were the main factors controlling the disposal of green waste.