A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.     

Teleconnections,midlatitude cyclones and Aegean Sea turbulent heat flux variability on daily through decadal time scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958–2001 and identify four distinct “cyclone states,” corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc) and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deepwater formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern, showing that the area of influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.     

Health effects of oxidants

Oxidants of significance to human health include ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and peroxyacetylnitrate. All of these compounds are involved in complex photochemical reactions which makes quantification and prediction of their individual health effects difficult. Ozone causes trauma to lung tissues and interferes with enzyme systems in the lungs and other tissues causing a broad range of symptoms. Measurable health impacts can occur at concentrations as low as 390 μg/m³. Acute effects of ozone exposure are reversible at normal urban concentrations (80–120 μg/m³). A special problem of concern, however, is increased susceptibility to infectious diseases contracted through the lungs. Nitrogen dioxide also causes trauma to lung tissues and interferes with enzyme systems. Measurable impacts can occur at concentrations as low as 100 μg/m³, but recovery is rapid and it is not known whether repeated exposures at this level have cumulative effects or predispose the lungs to permanent damage. Chronic exposure of laboratory animals to higher nitrogen dioxide levels can cause emphysema-like conditions and reduction in resistance to respiratory infection. Epidemiological studies of children in houses with gas stoves confirm the finding of reduced resistance to respiratory infection. The U.S. EPA estimates that health effects may occur in young children exposed to concentrations in excess of 280 to 560 μg/m³ one-hour average. These concentrations occur routinely in houses having gas stoves. Peroxyacetylnitrate is a powerful eye irritant in photochemical smog. Other health effects are similar to those of ozone, but less important because of the relatively low concentrations of this pollutant compared to other oxidants.     

Deposition velocities for full-scale corn and soybean canopies: A wind tunnel simulation

Deposition velocities have been determined for corn and soybeans in the first 4–6 weeks of growth in a full-scale study of canopy flow in a wind tunnel. Particles of 1, 5, 10 and 15 μm aerodynamic diameter made of sodium florescein were injected into the Environmental Wind Tunnel Facility at Colorado State University. Deposition velocities were determined as a function of free stream velocity (183, 305 and 610 cm/s) and approach flow turbulence intensity (～1% and 8%). Plants were arranged in realistic field configurations. Hot-wire anemometer studies confirmed that the fluid velocity profiles developed in the wind tunnel were similar to the flow realized in canopies in natural fields. An increase in velocity and turbulence intensity was found to decrease the deposition velocities. A minimum deposition velocity was observed at a particle diameter of 5 μm.     

Metal/metalloid contamination and isotopic composition of lead in edible mushrooms and forest soils originating from a smelting area

High metal contents in edible mushrooms growing in severely contaminated industrial areas pose an important toxicological risk. In the presented study, trace element (Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, Ag, As, Se) contents were determined in caps and stipes of three different edible mushroom species (Boletus edulis Bull. Fr., Xerocomus badius Fr. Gilb., Xerocomus chrysenteron Bull. Quél.). Additionally, information about the chemical fractionation of metals in separate soil horizons and Pb isotopic data from soils and fruiting bodies allowed a more detailed insight on the uptake mechanisms of metals by the studied mushroom species. Total metal and metalloid concentrations in the organic soil horizons reached 36234 mg Pb kg(-1); 11.9 mg Cd kg(-1); 519 mg Zn kg(-1); 488 mg Cu kg(-1); 25.1 mg Ag kg(-1); 120 mg As kg(-1) and 5.88 Se mg kg(-1). In order to evaluate the accumulation capacity of the studied species, bioconcentration factors (BCF) were calculated for separate trace elements. For selected metals (Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu), a modified BCF calculation (using EDTA-extractable concentrations of metals in soil) was proposed. High contents of Pb (up to 165 mg kg(-1)) and Cd (up to 55 mg kg(-1)) exceeded all the regulatory limits in all the studied species. This was also the case for Se (up to 57 mg kg(-1)) in B. edulis. Intensive consumption of this species grown in such polluted areas can therefore pose toxicological risks for human health. A novel finding was that X. badius can act as an Ag accumulating species when grown at polluted sites due to the high concentrations of Ag (up to 190 mg kg(-1)) in caps. Pb isotopic data showed that Pb originating from the recent air pollution control residues is present mainly in the exchangeable/acid-extractable fraction of the organic horizons and is taken up by fruiting bodies; especially in the case of B. edulis, where fast Pb accumulation occurs. Due to the high species-dependent variations of metal contents, the studied mushrooms are not suitable as bioindicators of environmental pollution.     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Subjective realities of climate change: how mental maps of impacts deliver socially sensible adaptation options

This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis with the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events and heat waves are considered and differ across groups. Rain events affect the lower income classes more, while heat waves are the bigger burden for higher income classes. Overall, the strength of perceived impacts is larger for lower income classes, directly threatening their daily incomes. Urban managers have no immediate feedback on their livelihood, but often refer to health issues. The strongest effect on ameliorating burdens is investments in schemes to ease traffic, e.g., by improving the sewage and drainage infrastructure paired with other supply side measures to enable transport of goods for lower income classes during rain. During heat events, improving the water supply situation would reduce burden for all, while constant electricity supply is an effective means in reducing burden for the higher income classes in particular. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the water supply and sewage infrastructure would be the most suitable first step to initiate a well-planned adaptation strategy for all social groups.     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.