How Do River Nitrate Concentrations Respond to Changes in Land-use? A Modelling Case Study of Headwaters in the River Derwent Catchment,North Yorkshire,UK

A combined semi-distributed hydrological model (CASCADE/QUESTOR) is used to evaluate the steady-state that may be achieved after changes in land-use or management and to explore what additional factors need to be considered in representing catchment processes. Two rural headwater catchments of the River Derwent (North Yorkshire, UK) were studied where significant change in land-use occurred in the 1990s and the early 2000s. Much larger increases in mean nitrate concentration (55%) were observed in the catchment with significant groundwater influence (Pickering Beck) compared with the surface water-dominated catchment (13% increase). The increases in Pickering Beck were considerably greater than could be explained by the model in terms of land-use change. Consequently, the study serves to focus attention on the long-term increases in nitrate concentration reported in major UK aquifers and the ongoing and chronic impact this trend is likely to be having on surface water concentrations. For river environments, where groundwater is a source, such trends will mask the impact of measures proposed to reduce the risk of nitrate leaching from agricultural land. Model estimates of within-channel losses account for 15–40% of nitrate entering rivers.     

Cattle vaccination records question the impact of recent zero-deforestation agreements in the Amazon

Regional Environmental Change - In the late 2000s, slaughterhouses across the Amazon entered into a series of agreements designed to reduce the environmental impact of the local cattle sector. In...     

Economic potential for conversion to organic farming: a net present value analysis in the East Mau Catchment,Nakuru, Kenya

This paper discusses the economic potential in terms of income changes that may result from conversion to low-external-input agriculture (LEIA) organic farming in a Kenya’s catchment area. A spreadsheet model applying the gross margin and net present value analysis was developed to estimate economic returns to labour and land of alternative smallholder cropping systems in the East Mau Catchment. The income and costs over a 10-year horizon associated with current cropping practices of a typical farm household cultivating 1.12 hectares of maize–bean intercrop, Irish potato, carrots, tomatoes, cabbages and kales mix were characterized based on field work conducted in 2008–2010. An “average” smallholder LEIA organic farm was simulated based on the conventional one, and its income discounted. A comparison was then made of the two farm types. Results indicate annual net present value returns to cropped land average Ksh 21,878/ha ($ 267/ha) and Kshs 22,561/ha (€ 275/ha) in 2010 values for conventional and prototype LEIA organic farming systems, respectively. Net returns are particularly sensitive to crop yields and price and cost of fertilizers and seeds. Further efforts should be made to provide an economic analysis of other LEIA organic farming practices such as composting, double digging and agroforestry in terms of additional labour costs resultant. The model can be extended to build more scenarios on the role of price premiums. Additionally, further research should be done to exploit the socio-demographic factors affecting the adoption of low-external-input systems.     

Performance of three numerical models to assess winter chill for fruit trees—a case study using cherry as model crop in Germany

Regional Environmental Change - The Meckenheim fruit growing region in Western Germany may be affected as a consequence of climate change by lack of chilling, i.e. a cold period in the winter...     

Bovine Tuberculosis and Badger Culling in England: An Animal Rights-Based Analysis of Policy Options

Bovine tuberculosis (bovine TB) is an important and controversial animal health policy issue in England, which impacts humans, cattle and badgers. The government policy of badger culling has led to widespread opposition, in part due to the conclusions of a large field trial recommending against culling, and in part because badgers are a cherished wildlife species. Animal rights (AR) theorists argue that sentient nonhumans should be accorded fundamental rights against killing and suffering. In bovine TB policy, however, pro-culling actors claim that badgers must be culled to avoid the slaughter of cattle. The first part of the paper compares AR theories of Regan, Francione, Cochrane, Garner and Donaldson and Kymlicka in the context of wildlife species. The second part of the paper applies these AR theories to bovine TB and badger control. AR theories are applied to badger control policy options of (1) do nothing, (2) badger culling, and (3) badger vaccination. We conclude that AR theories are strongly opposed to badger culling. In general, culling is prohibited due to a badger’s right to life and its rights against suffering. The AR theories support a do-nothing, i.e. non-culling, non-vaccination approach to badger control. In the case of the AR theories of Regan and Francione, this is based on abolitionist positions with respect to farming. For Cochrane, Garner, and Donaldson and Kymlicka, the do-nothing policy option is preferred because badger vaccination causes a degree of suffering which generally is not for the individual’s benefit.     

Probability analyses of combining background concentrations with model-predicted concentrations

In order to calculate total concentrations for comparison to ambient air quality standards, monitored background concentrations are often combined with model predicted concentrations. Models have low skill in predicting the locations or time series of observed concentrations. Further, adding fixed points on the probability distributions of monitored and predicted concentrations is very conservative and not mathematically correct. Simply adding the 99th percentile predicted to the 99th percentile background will not yield the 99th percentile of the combined distributions. Instead, an appropriate distribution can be created by calculating all possible pairwise combinations of the 1-hr daily maximum observed background and daily maximum predicted concentration, from which a 99th percentile total value can be obtained. This paper reviews some techniques commonly used for determining background concentrations and combining modeled and background concentrations. The paper proposes an approach to determine the joint probabilities of occurrence of modeled and background concentrations. The pairwise combinations approach yields a more realistic prediction of total concentrations than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance approach and agrees with the probabilistic form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Implications: EPA's current approaches to determining background concentrations for compliance modeling purposes often lead to “double counting” of background concentrations and actual plume impacts and thus lead to overpredictions of total impacts. Further, the current Tier 1 approach of simply adding the top ends of the background and model predicted concentrations (e.g., adding the 99th percentiles of these distributions together) results in design value concentrations at probabilities in excess of the form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.     

Comparative statistical study of hourly precipitation determined by radar-based Stage IV and ground-based methods in the North Central United States

Detailed hourly precipitation data are required for long-range modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants using the CALPUFF model. In sparsely populated areas such as the north central United States, ground-based precipitation measurement stations may be too widely spaced to offer a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a modeling domain. The availability of remotely sensed precipitation data by satellite and the National Weather Service array of next-generation radars (NEXRAD) deployed nationally provide an opportunity to improve on the paucity of data for these areas. Before adopting a new method of precipitation estimation in a modeling protocol, it should be compared with the ground-based precipitation measurements, which are currently relied upon for modeling purposes. This paper presents a statistical comparison between hourly precipitation measurements for the years 2006 through 2008 at 25 ground-based stations in the north central United States and radar-based precipitation measurements available from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) as Stage IV data at the nearest grid cell to each selected precipitation station. It was found that the statistical agreement between the two methods depends strongly on whether the ground-based hourly precipitation is measured to within 0.1 in/hr or to within 0.01 in/hr. The results of the statistical comparison indicate that it would be more accurate to use gridded Stage IV precipitation data in a gridded dispersion model for a long-range simulation, than to rely on precipitation data interpolated between widely scattered rain gauges.

Implications:

The current reliance on ground-based rain gauges for precipitation events and hourly data for modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants results in potentially large discontinuity in data coverage and the need to extrapolate data between monitoring stations. The use of radar-based precipitation data, which is available for the entire continental United States and nearby areas, would resolve these data gaps and provide a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a large modeling domain.     

Ecosystem services in coupled social–ecological systems: Closing the cycle of service provision and societal feedback

Both the ‘cascade model’ of ecosystem service provision and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework individually contribute to the understanding of human–nature interactions in social–ecological systems (SES). Yet, as several points of criticism show, they are limited analytical tools when it comes to reproducing complex cause–effect relationships in such systems. However, in this paper, we point out that by merging the two models, they can mutually enhance their comprehensiveness and overcome their individual conceptual deficits. Therefore we closed a cycle of ecosystem service provision and societal feedback by rethinking and reassembling the core elements of both models. That way, we established a causal sequence apt to describe the causes of change to SES, their effects and their consequences. Finally, to illustrate its functioning we exemplified and discussed our approach based on a case study conducted in the Alpujarra de la Sierra in southern Spain.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0651-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.