The Variability of Estimates of Variance, and Its Effect on Power Analysis in Monitoring Design

Power analysis can be a valuable aid in the design of monitoringprograms. It requires an estimate of variance, which may come from a pilot study or an existing study in a similar habitat. For marine benthic infauna, natural variation in abundances canbe considerable, raising the question of reliability of varianceestimates. We used two existing monitoring programs to generatemultiple estimates of variance. These estimates were found to differ from nominated best estimates by 50% or more in 43% of cases, in turn leading to under or over-estimation of samplesize in the design of a notional monitoring program. The twostudies, from the same general area, using the same samplingmethods and spanning a similar time scale, gave estimatesvarying by more than an order of magnitude for 25% of taxa.We suggest that pilot studies for ecological monitoring programsof marine infauna should include at least two sampling times.     

Application of multicriteria choice-methods in assessing eutrophication

Multicriteria choice-methods, often used in policy analysis, were examined as a methodological procedure for eutrophication assessment. Multicriteria analysis ranked the sampling sites along two coastal areas, according to nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations. Three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing eutrophic, mesotrophic and oligotrophic waters. These results have been compared to station grouping based on multivariate analysis which indicated similar trends. Multicriteria choice-methods were shown to be an effective methodological tool in assessing eutrophication. In addition, this approach is compatible with multicriteria methods applied on policy-making and therefore the problem of eutrophication can be integrated with plan and project evaluation in environmental management.     

Impact of human activities on the quality of river water: The case of Evrotas River catchment basin,Greece

The impact of point (domestic and industrial effluents) and non-point (agricultural land runoff) pollution sources on the quality of the receiving waters of the Evrotas River (Laconia, Greece) was investigated during a monitoring study from August 1991 to August 1992. The part of the river which was located near the city of Sparta was seasonally influenced by the discharge of effluents from orange juice plants (operating during winter) and by the discharge of septage for the emptying of cesspools which are serving part of the city. The low dilution of incoming pollutants (septage) during the low water flow in summer lead to the decreasing self-purification capacity of the river and the development of septicity conditions in some of its parts. In the vicinity of intensively cultivated areas, the high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus which were detected in the river water during winter and spring may be partly attributed to the leaching of the applied fertilizers because of nirogen mobilization and soil erosion, following the season's precipitations. The protection of the Evrotas River water Quality must therefore include adequate treatment of the septage produced in the area, as well as the construction of wastewater treatment plants for the major industries of the area. The non-point pollution could be controlled by the restoration of the Evrotas riparian vegetation, together with a more rational use of fertilizers in the area.     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Trends in Natural Resource Economics in JEEM 1974–1997: Breakpoint and Nonparametric Analysis

The purpose of this paper is to identify trends in natural resource economics as reflected in publications in JEEM over the period since its inception in 1974. A secondary purpose is to suggest an explanation for any patterns we observe in the data. The data base consists of all articles published during this period, classified by topic and method. We apply statistical techniques of increasing sophistication to determine the existence of trends, and interpret the results by appealing to what we characterize as forces of demand and supply.     

Relatedness and avoidance of inbreeding in the lizard, Tiliqua rugosa

Two potential mechanisms for reducing the level of inbreeding, sex-biased dispersal and kin avoidance, were examined in the Australian sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa. The home range centres, and the genotypes at four polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci were determined for adult lizards in a 70-ha study area near Mount Mary, South Australia. From estimates of genetic relatedness, females were as closely related to other females as they were to males, both within the whole study area, and within home ranges. Similarly, males were as closely related to other males as they were to females. This suggests that dispersal in the population is not sex-biased. Sleepy lizards form monogamous pairs during the spring. Partners were less closely related to each other than to other potential partners in the home range area. This suggests active choice of unrelated partners. The mechanism for recognising related from unrelated individuals is unknown, but the behaviour could reduce inbreeding. Received: 7 November 1998 / Accepted: 30 May 1999     

Developmental Instability in Fragmented Populations of Prairie Phlox: A Cautionary Tale

Abstract: Considerable attention has recently been focused on using levels of developmental instability among members of a population to detect environmental or genetic stresses on animals or plants. It is not yet clear, however, that high developmental instability in a sample of individuals always indicates environmental stress or poor genetic quality. We studied 13 fragmented populations of prairie phlox (   Phlox pilosa L.) to test the hypothesis that developmental instability should decrease with increasing population size—as expected if small populations suffer genetic problems associated with inbreeding or are exposed to more environmental stress than larger populations. We used two different measures of developmental instability, each calculated for two different traits: radial asymmetry of flowers (for petal width and petal length) and modular fluctuating asymmetry of leaves (  for leaf widths at two points along the leaf  ). There were weak but significant correlations among individuals for four of six pairwise combinations of these measures. Surprisingly, three of our four measures of developmental instability showed strong population size effects that were opposite to those expected: developmental instability increased with population size. We conclude that measures of developmental instability cannot be applied uncritically for biomonitoring without considerable knowledge of developmental mechanisms, natural history, and population biology of the species in question.     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.     

Darwin's Fox: A Distinct Endangered Species in a Vanishing Habitat

The temperate rain forest of Chiloé Island, Chile, is inhabited by an endemic fox ( Dusicyon fulvipes ) first described by Charles Darwin and now designated Darwin's fox. Despite morphological differences, Darwin's fox has been considered only an insular subspecies of the mainland chilla fox ( D. griseus ). This follows the assumption that the island population, with an estimated population of less than 500, has been separated from the mainland chilla fox for only about 15,000 years and may have received occasional immigrants from the mainland. Consequently, this island population has not been protected as endangered or bred in captivity. Recently, a population of Darwin's fox was discovered on the Chilean mainland 600 km north of Chiloé Island. This population exists in sympatry with chilla and possibly culpeo ( D. culpaeus ) foxes, which suggests that Darwin's fox may be reproductively isolated. To clarify the phylogenetic position of Darwin's fox, we analyzed 344 bp of mitochondrial DNA control-region sequence of the three species of Chilean foxes. Darwin's foxes from the island and mainland populations compose a monophyletic group distinct from the two other Chilean fox species. This indicates that Darwin's fox was probably an early inhabitant of central Chile, and that its present distribution on the mainland may be a relict of a once much wider distribution. Our results highlight the ability of molecular genetic techniques to uncover historical relationships masked by recent events, such as local extinctions. The "rediscovery" of Darwin's fox as a distinct species implies that greater significance should be given to the protection of this species and its unique habitat and to documenting the extent of its mainland distribution.