Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations

Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO₂ emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.

R&D prospects in the mining and metals industry

The mining and metals industry is considered more-or-less technology mature as it spends less than 1% of its revenues on R&D. In the period 2003-2008, that sector saw a very significant increase in profitability. Yet, during the same period, mining and metals companies continued to trim R&D spending, a trend that started in the early 1980s. In the near future the mining and metals industry will face significant challenges including an increased demand from the developing world counterbalanced by an overall trend to lower ore grades and with high pressure to reduce energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. To overcome these challenges, the mining and metals industry will likely face the need to considerably increase its R&D efforts. As the world enters a period of economic uncertainty, the sector will need to revise its approach towards R&D, reconsider its position against collaborative research with academia and other institutions, and be more creative when it comes to R&D funding.     

X-ray microspectroscopy and chemical reactions in soil microsites

Soils provide long-term storage of environmental contaminants, which helps to protect water and air quality and diminishes negative impacts of contaminants on human and ecosystem health. Characterizing solid-phase chemical species in highly complex matrices is essential for developing principles that can be broadly applied to the wide range of notoriously heterogeneous soils occurring at the earth's surface. In the context of historical developments in soil analytical techniques, we describe applications of bulk-sample and spatially resolved synchrotron X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) for characterizing chemical species of contaminants in soils, and for determining the uniqueness of trace-element reactivity in different soil microsites. Spatially resolved X-ray techniques provide opportunities for following chemical changes within soil microsites that serve as highly localized chemical micro- (or nano-)reactors of unique composition. An example of this microreactor concept is shown for micro-X-ray absorption near edge structure analysis of metal sulfide oxidation in a contaminated soil. One research challenge is to use information and principles developed from microscale soil chemistry for predicting macroscale and field-scale behavior of soil contaminants.     

Runoff water quality during drought in a zero-order georgia piedmont pasture: nitrogen and total organic carbon

Approximately 11% of the Southern Piedmont (1.8 million ha) is used for pasture and hay production, mostly under low-input management. Few studies have investigated in the region long-term nitrogen and carbon losses in surface runoff, which can be significant. We present 1999 to 2009 hydrologic and water quality data from a rotationally grazed, 7.8-ha, zero-order pasture (W1) near Watkinsville in the Georgia Piedmont. Annual rainfall was 176 to 463 mm below the long-term average (1240 mm) in 7 of the 11 yr. There were 20 runoff events during 86 mo of below-average rainfall (deficit period), compared with 54 events during 46 mo of nondeficit period. Mean event flow-weighted concentration (in mg L) was 0.96 for nitrate-nitrogen (NO-N), 0.97 for ammonium-nitrogen (NH-N), 3.70 for total nitrogen (TN), and 9.12 for total organic carbon (TOC) ( = 43-47; limited due to instrument problem). Nutrient loads (in kg ha per event) averaged 0.04 for NO-N, 0.03 for NH-N, 0.19 for TN, and 0.54 for TOC. Total loads for N and TOC were 6 to 11 times greater from nondeficit than from deficit periods. The observed N concentrations, while well below maximum drinking water standard limits, could pose risk for eutrophication, which can be stimulated at lower concentrations. However, the ability of headwater streams, such as the one downstream of W1, to reduce nutrient concentrations might partially alleviate this concern. The results of this study point to the need to use a long-term dataset that includes measurements made in drought and wet years when evaluating the efficacy of water quality standards.     

Snorkelling and trampling in shallow-water fringing reefs: risk assessment and proposed management strategy

Shallow reefs (reef flats <1.5 m) in the northern Red Sea are impacted by growing tourism that includes swimmers, snorkellers and reef walkers but have largely been neglected in past studies. We selected a fringing reef along the lagoon of Dahab (Sinai, Egypt) as a model for a management strategy. Point-intercept line transects were used to determine substrate composition, coral community and condition, and the coral damage index (CDI) was applied. Approximately 84% of the coral colonies showed signs of damage such as breakage, partial mortality or algal overgrowth, especially affecting the most frequent coral genus Acropora. Questionnaires were used to determine the visitors' socio-economic background and personal attitudes regarding snorkelling, SCUBA-diving and interest in visiting a prospective snorkelling trail. Experiencing nature (97%) was by far the strongest motivation, and interest in further education about reef ecology and skill training was high. Less experienced snorkellers and divers--the target group for further education and skill training--were those most prepared to financially support such a trail. We therefore recommend a guided underwater snorkelling trail and restricting recreational use to a less sensitive 'ecotourism zone' while protecting the shallow reef flat. Artificial structures can complete the trail and offer the opportunity to snorkel over deeper areas at unfavourable tide or wind conditions. This approach provides a strategy for the management and conservation of shallow-water reefs, which are facing increasing human impact here and elsewhere.     

Evaluation of nitrogen retention and microbial populations in poultry litter treated with chemical, biological or adsorbent amendments

Poultry litter is a valuable nutrient source for crop production. Successful management to reduce ammonia and its harmful side-effects on poultry and the environment can be aided by the use of litter amendments. In this study, three acidifiers, two biological treatments, one chemical urease inhibitor and two adsorber amendments were added to poultry litter. Chemical, physical and microbiological properties of the litters were assessed at the beginning and the end of the experiment. Application of litter amendments consistently reduced organic N loss (0-15%) as compared to unamended litter (20%). Acidifiers reduced nitrogen loss through both chemical and microbiological processes. Adsorbent amendments (water treatment residuals and chitosan) reduced nitrogen loss and concentrations of ammonia-producing bacteria and fungi. The use of efficient, cost-effective litter amendments to maximum agronomic, environmental and financial benefits is essential for the future of sustainable poultry production.     

Balancing durability and environmental impact in concrete combining low-grade recycled aggregates and mineral admixtures

This paper investigated the effect of various amounts of low-grade recycled aggregates in concrete containing mineral admixtures at three different water-binder ratios on mechanical and environmental performance. The balance between durability and environmental impact for a given strength level similar to normal-use concrete was also examined using analytic hierarchy process. Results showed that increasing the water-binder ratio and volume of recycled aggregates reduced compressive strength and increased air permeability and drying shrinkage relative to normal aggregates. However, compared to normal-use concrete similar or better performance could be achieved, which was attributed to improvement of low-grade recycled aggregate performance when combined with fly ash. Similarly, CO₂ emissions and volume of raw materials were lower than the normal-use concrete for all mixes. Concrete mixes with low air permeability and low CO₂ footprint had the best balance of durability and environmental impact, as decreasing raw material volume tended to more greatly reduce durability.     

Evolution of a stream ecosystem in recently deglaciated terrain

Climate change and associated glacial recession create new stream habitat that leads to the assembly of new riverine communities through primary succession. However, there are still very few studies of the patterns and processes of community assembly during primary succession for stream ecosystems. We illustrate the rapidity with which biotic communities can colonize and establish in recently formed streams by examining Stonefly Creek in Glacier Bay, Alaska (USA), which began to emerge from a remnant glacial ice mass between 1976 and 1979. By 2002, 57 macroinvertebrate and 27 microcrustacea species had become established. Within 10 years of the stream's formation, pink salmon and Dolly Varden charr colonized, followed by other fish species, including juvenile red and silver salmon, Coast Range sculpin, and sticklebacks. Stable-isotope analyses indicate that marine-derived nitrogen from the decay of salmon carcasses was substantially assimilated within the aquatic food web by 2004. The findings from Stonefly Creek are compared with those from a long-term study of a similarly formed but older stream (12 km to the northeast) to examine possible similarities in macroinvertebrate community and biological trait composition between streams at similar stages of development. Macroinvertebrate community assembly appears to have been initially strongly deterministic owing to low water temperature associated with remnant ice masses. In contrast, microcrustacean community assembly appears to have been more stochastic. However, as stream age and water temperature increased, macroinvertebrate colonization was also more stochastic, and taxonomic similarity between Stonefly Creek and a stream at the same stage of development was <50%. However the most abundant taxa were similar, and functional diversity of the two communities was almost identical. Tolerance is suggested as the major mechanism of community assembly. The rapidity with which salmonids and invertebrate communities have become established across an entire watershed has implications for the conservation of biodiversity in freshwater habitats.     

River network structure shapes interannual feedbacks between adult sea lamprey migration and larval habitation

Adult sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) migrating upstream to spawn follow a pheromone released by instream larvae. The size (i.e. flow) of a tributary dilutes the concentration of this pheromone, such that the downstream propagation pattern of larval pheromone must be influenced by patterns in the relative sizes and numbers of confluent tributaries. We developed an individual-based model to explicitly test the resulting hypothesis that river network structure influences the migration decisions of adult lampreys following the larval pheromone, and in turn the distribution of larvae. First, we initialized the model using randomly generated river networks, and found a strong positive relationship between network diameter and larval aggregation. Larvae aggregated over time, and the degree and rate of this aggregation depended on network diameter. Second, we initialized the model using a river network based on the Muskegon River, Michigan, and compared model-generated larval distribution to available field survey data. We found a significant correlation between model-generated larval abundance and field-measured larval densities (r₂ = 0.54; p < 0.0001). We also found an inverse relationship between subwatershed area and the degree to which path-dependent effects influenced larval abundance in that subwatershed. Our results overall suggest that larval distribution across a watershed results from a system of context-dependent interannual feedbacks shaped by network structure and the past migratory and spawning behavior of adults.     

Robustness and vulnerability of community irrigation systems: The case of the Taos valley acequias

Traditional economic and policy analysis theory has emphasized the implementation of private or public property rights regimes in order to sustainably manage natural resources. More recent work has challenged this approach by examining the strengths and weakness of common property governance of such resources. This paper contributes to this literature by analyzing the acequia irrigation communities in northern New Mexico. Through statistical analysis, we find that the acequias’ ability to maintain collective-action as estimated by a critical performance function, crop production, is aided by water sharing agreements and access to groundwater, and that it is hampered by property rights fragmentation and urbanization.