Pathways for the oxidation of sarin in urban atmospheres

The nerve agent sarin has recently been deployed by terrorists in a major city. The molecule is volatile and made its way to many victims by passing as vapor through a highly reactive medium. Here we estimate rates and pathways for the removal of gas phase sarin from a generalized urban atmosphere. Only information from the open scientific literature is used. By structure reactivity comparisons with the organophosphorus pesticides, hydroxyl radical hydrogen abstraction may occur in as little as one hour. Decomposition of side chains after hydroxyl attack leads to organic oxygenates which preserve the phosphonofluoridate and so toxicity. The aqueous aerosol surface is contacted in minutes and offers access to a range of dissolved nucleophiles. Substitution displaces the fluoride leaving group, giving safe phosphoric acid analogs. Because of uncertainties in the electron distribution and in aqueous decay mechanisms, the time constants must be viewed as lower limits.     

Reliability of Conservation Actions Based on Elasticity Analysis of Matrix Models

Abstract: Matrix population models have entered the mainstream of conservation biology, with analysis of proportional sensitivities (elasticity analysis) of demographic rates becoming important components of conservation decision making. We identify areas where management applications using elasticity analysis potentially conflict with the mathematical basis of the technique, and we use a hypothetical example and three real data sets (Prairie Chicken [   Tympanuchus cupido ], desert tortoise [ Gopherus agassizii ], and killer whale [ Orcinus orca ]) to evaluate the extent to which conservation recommendations based on elasticities might be misleading. First, changes in one demographic rate can change the qualitative ranking of the elasticity values calculated from a population matrix, a result that dampens enthusiasm for ranking conservation actions based solely on which rates have the highest elasticity values. Second, although elasticities often provide accurate predictions of future changes in population growth rate under management perturbations that are large or that affect more than one rate concurrently, concordance frequently fails when different rates vary by different amounts. In particular, when vital rates change to their high or low values observed in nature, predictions of future growth rate based on elasticities of a mean matrix can be misleading, even predicting population increase when the population growth rate actually declines following a perturbation. Elasticity measures will continue to be useful tools for applied ecologists, but they should be interpreted with considerable care. We suggest that studies using analytical elasticity analysis explicitly consider the range of variation possible for different rates and that simulation methods are a useful tool to this end.     

Effects of a Population Bottleneck on Whooping Crane Mitochondrial DNA Variation

Abstract: The Whooping Crane ( Grus americana ) is an endangered bird that suffered a severe population bottleneck; only 14 adults survived in 1938. We assessed the genetic effect of this human-caused bottleneck by sequencing 314 base pairs ( bp) of the mitochondrial DNA control region from cranes that lived before, during, and after this bottleneck. The maximum length of DNA amplifiable from museum specimens was negatively correlated with age, and only 10 of 153 specimens yielded the entire 314 bp sequence. Six haplotypes were present among the prebottleneck individuals sequenced, and only one of these persists in the modern population. The most common modern haplotype was in low frequency in the prebottleneck population, which demonstrates the powerful effect of genetic drift in changing allele frequencies in very small populations. By combining all available data, we show that no more than one-third of the prebottleneck haplotypes survived the human-caused population bottleneck. High levels of variation of substitution rates among nucleotide sites prevented us from estimating the prebottleneck population size. Our data will be incorporated into the captive breeding program to allow better management decisions regarding the preservation of current genetic diversity. These data offer the first glimpse into the genetic toll this species has paid for human activities.     

Song sharing in two populations of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia)

Sharing song types with immediate neighbors is widespread in birds with song repertoires, and sharing songs may confer a selective advantage in some cases. Levels of song sharing vary between different geographical populations of several bird species, and ecological differences often correlate with differences in singing behavior; in particular, males in migratory subspecies often share fewer songs than males in resident subspecies. The song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) appears to fit this pattern: resident song sparrows in western North America generally share 20–40% of their repertoire (of about eight songs) with each neighbor, while migratory subspecies from eastern North America often share 10% or less. We compared song sharing in two populations within a single subspecies of song sparrow (M. m. morphna) in Washington State. These populations, separated by only 120 km, nonetheless differ in migratory tendencies and several other ecological and life history variables. We recorded complete song repertoires from 11 male song sparrows in a high-elevation, migrating population at Gold Creek in west-central Washington, and compared them to two samples (n = 15 and n = 36) from a coastal, resident population at Discovery Park, Seattle, Washington. Despite major differences in habitat, population density, and migratory tendencies, song sharing among Gold Creek males was as high as that among Discovery Park males. In both populations, sharing was highest between immediate neighbors, and declined with distance. We conclude that at the within-subspecies level, neither migration nor population density affect song sharing in song sparrows, a song repertoire species. Received: 26 November 1998 / Received in revised form: 1 May 1999 / Accepted: 29 May 1999     

ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTORS FOR STREAM EUTROPHICATION POTENTIAL1

ABSTRACT: Predicting stream eutrophication potential from non-point source nutrient loading across large temporal and spatial scales is a significant problem. In this paper we describe how two physiological indicators of P stress of stream bioflims, alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) and stored (surplus) P relate to two predictors of P loading: annual P loading predicted by the watershed model SIMPLE, and stream concentrations of soluble reactive P (SRP) in eight subbasins in the illinois River basin in Oklahoma. Data for APA, surplus P, nutrients and water chemistry were obtained at watershed outlets once during the cold season and twice during the warm season. There was a negative curvilinear relationship between APA and both predictors. Best fit was achieved by APA vs. annual predicted P loading. Both SRP and P. load are potentially useful to identify subbasins requiring no pollution abatement and to establish a regional target for P-load reduction. Surplus P is not as useful as APA in establishing these thresholds.     

HYDROLOGIC DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS OF CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS FOR URBAN STORMWATER RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: The successful design of constructed wetlands requires a continuous supply of water or vegetation that can withstand drought conditions. Having a constant water source is the best alternative to insure species diversity throughout the season. Consequently, detention structure designs should be based on times between events as well as on hydrologic return periods, since between events is when most evaporation and infiltration losses are likely to occur. In arid or semi-arid environments, this is a difficult process because of long interevent times and seasonal changes in precipitation patterns. This discussion is predicated on the assumption that phytoplankton, epiphytic algae, and emergent vegetation require moist conditions to be effective at removing nutrients, metals and other pollutants. There are drought tolerant species of vegetation that can be used in constructed wetlands but it may take several days to re-establish the attached bacteria communities necessary for optimum pollutant removal. This paper examines a stochastic framework to examine the probability of extended dry periods based on historic rainfall data. The number of consecutive dry days is selected for a specified level of assurance. By multiplying this value by the sum of daily system losses, an overall pond volume can be determined that ensures a minimum depth of water. To illustrate the utility of the approach, the method is applied to a site in Spokane, Washington.     

Use of carrion fly iDNA metabarcoding to monitor invasive and native mammals

Severely fragmented habitats increase the risk of extirpation of native mammal populations through isolation, increased edge effects, and predation. Therefore, monitoring the movement of mammal populations through anthropogenically altered landscapes can inform conservation. We used metabarcoding of invertebrate-derived DNA (iDNA) from carrion flies (Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae) to track mammal populations in the wheat belt of southwestern Australia, where widespread clearing for agriculture has removed most of the native perennial vegetation and replaced it with an agricultural system. We investigated whether the localization of the iDNA signal reflected the predicted distribution of 4 native species—echidna (Tachyglossus aculeatus), numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus), woylie (Bettongia penicillata), and chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii)—and 2 non-native, invasive mammal species—fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). We collected bulk iDNA samples (n = 150 samples from 3428 carrion flies) at 3 time points from 3 conservation reserves and 35 road edges between them. We detected 14 of the 40 mammal species known from the region, including our target species. Most detections of target taxa were in conservation reserves. There were a few detections from road edges. We detected foxes and feral cats throughout the study area, including all conservation reserves. There was a significant difference between the diversity (F_3, 98 = 5.91, p < 0.001) and composition (F_3, 43 = 1.72, p < 0.01) of taxa detections on road edges and conservation reserves. Conservation reserves hosted more native biodiversity than road edges. Our results suggest that the signals from iDNA reflect the known distribution of target mammals in this region. The development of iDNA methods shows promise for future noninvasive monitoring of mammals. With further development, iDNA metabarcoding could inform decision-making related to conservation of endangered taxa, invasive species management, and impacts of habitat fragmentation.     

Safety belt effectiveness in preventing driver fatalities versus a number of vehicular, accident, roadway, and environmental factors

Safety belt effectiveness in preventing fatalities to drivers is examined versus a number factors (vehicle, accident, and environmental) by applying the double-pair comparison method to appropriate subsets of the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) data. For each of 13 factors studied, safety belt effectiveness (the percent of fatally injured unbelted drivers who would not have been killed if they had been wearing safety belts) is estimated, as is an associated standard error of the estimate. The results, which are presented graphically, provide no evidence that safety belt effectiveness is systematically influenced by most of the factors investigated, including car mass and model year. The absence of any systematic relationship with car mass is in agreement with an earlier finding based on the pedestrian fatality exposure method; this agreement adds plausibility to the assumptions used for both the earlier and the present methods. Safety belt effectiveness is greater for single-car crashes (62 ± 5) % than for crashes involving two cars (30 ± 8) % , this difference being statistically significant at p<.02. The results suggest weakly that safety belt effectiveness is greater for two-door (48 ± 6) % than for four-door (38 ± 10) % cars, and is greater for striking (44 ± 6) % cars than for struck (27 ± 12)% cars. The above differences probably reflect higher effectiveness in frontal (or rollover) crashes than in side impacts.     

The European Commission’s Green Deal is an opportunity to rethink harmful practices of research and innovation policy

The European Union’s Green Deal and associated policies, aspiring to long-term environmental sustainability, now require economic activities to ‘do no significant harm’ to EU environmental objectives. The way the European Commission is enacting the do no significant harm principle relies on quantitative tools that try to identify harm and adjudicate its significance. A reliance on established technical approaches to assessing such questions ignores the high levels of imprecision, ambiguity, and uncertainty—levels often in flux—characterizing the social contexts in which harms emerge. Indeed, harm, and its significance, are relational, not absolute. A better approach would thus be to acknowledge the relational nature of harm and develop broad capabilities to engage and ‘stay with’ the harm. We use the case of European research and innovation activities to expose the relational nature of harm, and explore an alternative and potentially more productive approach that departs from attempts to unilaterally or uniformly claim to know or adjudicate what is or is not significantly harmful. In closing, we outline three ways research and innovation policy-makers might experiment with reconfiguring scientific and technological systems and practices to better address the significant harms borne by people, other-than-human beings, and ecosystems.