Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

Division of labour and worker size polymorphism in ant colonies: the impact of social and genetic factors

Division of labour among workers is central to the organisation and ecological success of insect societies. If there is a genetic component to worker size, morphology or task preference, an increase in colony genetic diversity arising from the presence of multiple breeders per colony might improve division of labour. We studied the genetic basis of worker size and task preference in Formica selysi, an ant species that shows natural variation in the number of mates per queen and the number of queens per colony. Worker size had a heritable component in colonies headed by a doubly mated queen (h ²=0.26) and differed significantly among matrilines in multiple-queen colonies. However, higher levels of genetic diversity did not result in more polymorphic workers across single- or multiple-queen colonies. In addition, workers from multiple-queen colonies were consistently smaller and less polymorphic than workers from single-queen colonies. The relationship between task, body size and genetic lineage appeared to be complex. Foragers were significantly larger than brood-tenders, which may provide energetic or ergonomic advantages to the colony. Task specialisation was also often associated with genetic lineage. However, genetic lineage and body size were often correlated with task independently of each other, suggesting that the allocation of workers to tasks is modulated by multiple factors. Overall, these results indicate that an increase in colony genetic diversity does not increase worker size polymorphism but might improve colony homeostasis.     

A method for the assessment of long-term changes in carbon stock by construction of a hydropower reservoir

Sustainability of hydropower reservoirs has been questioned since the detection of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are mainly composed of carbon dioxide and methane. A method to assess the impact on the carbon cycle caused by the transition from a natural river system into a reservoir is presented and discussed. The method evaluates the long term changes in carbon stock instead of the current approach of monitoring and integrating continuous short term fluxes. A case study was conducted in a subtropical reservoir in Brazil, showing that the carbon content within the reservoir exceeds that of the previous landuse. The average carbon sequestration over 43 years since damming was 895 mg C m\(^{-2}\mathrm{{day}}^{-1}\) and found to be mainly due to storage of carbon in sediments. These results demonstrate that reservoirs have two opposite effects on the balance of GHGs. By storing organic C in sediments, reservoirs are an important carbon sink. On the other hand, reservoirs increase the flux of methane into the atmosphere. If the sediments of reservoirs could be used for long term C storage, reservoirs might have a positive effect on the balance of GHGs.