Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a computer-based decision support application from expert judgments for assessing aquatic and riparian conditions over the 100,000?km2 managed by the US federal government under the Northwest Forest Plan. The decision support system helped structure and document the assessment process and provided consistency and transparency to the evaluation methodology. However, many decisions and trade-offs were required in the expert engagement and model-building processes. Knowledge elicitation in an interactive group had a number of benefits over nominal group or Delphi processes, but efficient knowledge capture required considerable planning and expertise in the subject matter and modeling process. Communicating model results for validation was problematic and only effectively accomplished via in-person workshops. The choice to use different expert groups for each biophysical province provided more opportunities for participation and promoted greater ownership in the assessment, but it also led to increased variation among the resulting model structures. We propose three possible approaches for better managing the consistency of assessment models when multiple expert groups are involved. 相似文献
The spatial distribution of trace elements in surface sediments of the Hooghly estuary was studied over the monsoons in 2014–2017. As, Cd, Ni, Pb and U were two- to sixteen-fold the crust means with increasing levels toward the estuary, with Ni peak during the post-monsoon. Pearson’s correlation matrix, cluster analysis, enrichment factors and pollution index revealed the anthropic source and association of trace elements with Fe, Mn and Al and of Pb with U. Geoaccumulation index revealed for Ni an extremely contaminated situation at the estuary water during monsoon and for Cd a heavily contaminated situation at freshwater location. The potential contamination index was >6; thus, sediments were very severely contaminated by As, Cd and Ni with worst situation for As and Cd at fresh and brackish water and during post-monsoon. The overall ecological risk was severe, 300≤RI<600 at all sites and seasons, especially after the monsoon, at fluvial and brackish locations.
Physical shelter features (e.g. shape, size and substrate slope) were tested in the laboratory to evaluate the preferences
of juveniles of European spiny lobster, Palinurus elephas. Tethering experiments to assess whether substrate slope affects the vulnerability of juveniles to predation were also performed.
Our results showed that: (1) semi-circular dens were significantly preferred over square and circular shapes; (2) when not
disturbed by a predator, lobsters sheltered in holes with a diameter closely related to their own size, while in the presence
of a potential predator lobsters showed no significant preference for a particular shelter size; (3) lobsters significantly
preferred dens excavated on sub-vertical (35°) substrates over those excavated on vertical ones (90°); (4) individual lobsters
tethered on vertical substrates were subject to greater predation activity than those tethered on horizontal structures. In
conclusion, the present study contributes to the understanding of how physical properties of shelters affect the choice of
P. elephas juveniles, enhancing their protection and survival rate. 相似文献
The behavior and fate of triasulfuron (TRS) in water and soil systems were examined in laboratory studies. The degradation of TRS in both buffer solution and soil was highly pH-sensitive. The rate of degradation could be described with a pseudo first-order kinetic and was much faster at pH 4 than at pH 7 and 9. Aqueous hydrolysis occurred by cleavage of the sulfonylurea bridge to form 2-(2-chloroethoxy) benzenesulfonamide (CBSA) and [(4-methoxy-6-methyl-1,3,5-triazin-2-yl)amino] (AMMT). AMMT was unstable in aqueous solutions in any pH condition but it degraded more quickly at pH 4 and 9. CBSA did not degrade in aqueous solutions or in enriched cultures but it underwent a quick degradation in the soil. The rates of TRS degradation in sterile and non-sterile soils were similar, suggesting that microorganisms played a minimal role in the breakdown process. This hypothesis is supported by the results of studies on the degradation of TRS by enriched cultures during which the molecule underwent a prevalently chemical degradation. 相似文献
After introducing soft defence techniques as an alternative to hard defence techniques, the need is emphasized to consider
the coastal area as an integral system. By recalling the main driving factors for coastal management: conflict resolution,
resilience and sustainability, we logically arrive at the concepts of ecological engineering and ecotechnology, which are
increasingly acknowledged as possible solutions to achieve sustainable use of coastal space as a resource. In this context,
we refer to the principles of self design and of ecosystem conservation.
In order to deal with real situations we are in need of fundamental ‘tools’ for the application of the soft intervention technology
approach. We therefore introduce the concept of physiographic units and develop an initial elaboration for a coastal stretch
and for coastal wetlands. The latter deserve more attention because of the already established practices of ecotechnology,
at least as far as water and soil quality are concerned, but certainly also concerning morphology, especially in the future.
We conclude by briefly discussing how activities undertaken in two research projects currently being conducted under the framework
of the Marine Science and Technology Program of the Commission of the European Communities are expected to contribute to the
concepts introduced here. 相似文献
Uncertainty plays a major role in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). A large part of this uncertainty is connected
to our lack of knowledge of the integrated functioning of the coastal system and to the increasing need to act in a pro-active
way. Increasingly, coastal managers are forced to take decisions based on information which is surrounded by uncertainties.
Different types of uncertainty can be identified and the role of uncertainty in decision making, scientific uncertainty and
model uncertainty in ICZM is discussed. The issue of spatial variability, which is believed to be extremely important in ICZM
and represents a primary source of complexity and uncertainty, is also briefly introduced. Some principles for complex model
building are described as an approach to handle, in a balanced way, the available data, information, knowledge and experience.
The practical method of sensitivity analysis is then introduced as a method for a posterior evaluation of uncertainty in simulation
models. We conclude by emphasising the need for the definition of an analysis plan in order to handle model uncertainty in
a balanced way during the decision making process. 相似文献
Invasive species pose significant ecological costs, and therefore successful management techniques are important. One commonly employed method is biological control. The success of biological control depends largely on whether additional inflicted damage can successfully reduce the fitness and population growth rate of a target species. Here, we simulate herbivory on the invasive Lespedeza cuneata and create stage-structured projection models to determine if augmented herbivory by a leaf-chewing biological control agent would regulate the population growth rate of this species. We found that augmented herbivory influenced stage transitions of plants in the smallest stage class, causing higher mortality and reduced growth. No other effect was found on stage transitions or fecundities, despite manipulation of herbivory at exceptionally high levels (up to 80% leaf loss). None of the clipping treatments significantly reduced the population growth rate of L. cuneata. We conclude that biological control by a leaf chewing herbivore would not likely be successful, even if an exceptionally large amount of each plant were consumed. We suggest that this approach, a combination of simulated herbivory and demographic modeling, will provide essential information for understanding the utility of biological control to curb the population growth of invasive plant species. 相似文献
Small farmers who supply the city of Bogotá with food are facing many challenges that are jeopardizing their livelihoods and by extension, the food security of Colombia’s capital. We expect future changes in climatic conditions to exacerbate the plight of the small farmers and this is expected to compromise Bogota’s food security even further. This paper specifically seeks to assess the impact of climate change (CC) on the livelihoods of smallholders who supply Bogota with most of its food. In our multidisciplinary methodology, we translated the exposure to CC into direct impact on crops and assessed sensitivity and adaptive capacity using the sustainable rural livelihoods framework. The results show that rainfall (by average of 100 mm) and temperature (by average of 2.1 °C) will increase over the study area, while the future climate suitability of the most important crops such as mango (Mangifera indica), papaya (Carica papaya), corn (Zea mays) and plantain (Musa balbisiana) shows a decrease of 19 % to 47 % climate suitability by the year 2050. The assessment of sensitivity and adaptive capacity demonstrates that farmers participating in a farmers’ market, initiated by several local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are less vulnerable to CC than farmers who sell through intermediaries. Those farmers selling directly to consumers in the farmers’ market have a higher adaptive capacity (3 on a scale of 3) in social and financial capital than those selling to intermediaries with less adaptive capacity (1 on a scale of 3). In light of the reduction in overall climatic suitability of some of the major crops and the change of geographic location of suitability for others, there are likely to be serious threats for Bogotá’s food security, the ecological landscape around the city, and farmers’ livelihoods. We further conclude that unless proper adaptation measures are implemented, the geographical shift in climate suitability may also force farmers to shift their crops to higher elevations including remaining forests and páramos (the Colombian alpine tundra ecosystems), which may be threatened in the near future. 相似文献