The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

Elevated biogenic sulphur dioxide concentrations over the North Atlantic

Elevated biogenic SO₂ from the oxidation of dimethylsulphide (DMS) in the marine atmosphere was measured over the North Atlantic Ocean in spring and summer 2003. Stable isotope apportionment was used to distinguish between anthropogenic and biogenic SO₂ in the marine atmosphere south of Greenland. Atmospheric DMS measurements were within range of previous studies. Biogenic SO₂ concentrations were as high as 82 nmol m^?3 (spring geometric mean: 4 nmol m^?3, σ = 17; summer geometric mean 7 nmol m^?3, σ = 19) and are the highest reported values for marine biogenic SO₂ in the literature. Elevated biogenic SO₂ was found in air masses influenced by anthropogenic pollutants during the summer. This indicates that anthropogenic pollutants may affect the fate of oceanic emissions of sulphur compounds in the atmosphere favoring the formation of cloud condensation nuclei.     

Effects of 4-methylbenzylidene camphor (4-MBC) on neuronal and muscular development in zebrafish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Danio rerio</Emphasis>) embryos

The negative effects of overexposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation in humans, including sunburn and light-induced cellular injury, are of increasing public concern. 4-Methylbenzylidene camphor (4-MBC), an organic chemical UV filter, is an active ingredient in sunscreen products. To date, little information is available about its neurotoxicity during early vertebrate development. Zebrafish embryos were exposed to various concentrations of 4-MBC in embryo medium for 3 days. In this study, a high concentration of 4-MBC, which is not being expected at the current environmental concentrations in the environment, was used for the purpose of phenotypic screening. Embryos exposed to 15 μM of 4-MBC displayed abnormal axial curvature and exhibited impaired motility. Exposure effects were found to be greatest during the segmentation period, when somite formation and innervation occur. Immunostaining of the muscle and axon markers F59, znp1, and zn5 revealed that 4-MBC exposure leads to a disorganized pattern of slow muscle fibers and axon pathfinding errors during the innervation of both primary and secondary motor neurons. Our results also showed reduction in AChE activity upon 4-MBC exposure both in vivo in the embryos (15 μM) and in vitro in mammalian Neuro-2A cells (0.1 μM), providing a possible mechanism for 4-MBC-induced muscular and neuronal defects. Taken together, our results have shown that 4-MBC is a teratogen and influences muscular and neuronal development, which may result in developmental defects.     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.     

Personal care product use and urinary levels of phthalate metabolites in Mexican women

Sources of phthalates other than Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) related products are scarcely documented in Mexico. The objective of our study was to explore the association between urinary levels of nine phthalate metabolites and the use of personal care products. Subjects included 108 women who participated as controls in an ongoing population-based case-control study of environmental factors and genetic susceptibility to breast cancer in northern Mexico. Direct interviews were performed to inquire about sociodemographic characteristics, reproductive history, use of personal care products, and diet. Phthalate metabolites measured in urine by high performance liquid chromatography-isotope dilution tandem mass spectrometry were monoethyl phthalate (MEP), monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP), mono-n-butyl phthalate (MBP), mono-isobutyl phthalate (MiBP), mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate (MCPP) as well as mono-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP), mono-2-ethyl-5-oxohexyl phthalate (MEOHP), mono-2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl phthalate (MEHHP), mono-2-ethyl-5-carboxypentyl phthalate (MECPP) that are metabolites of di-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP). Detectable urinary concentrations of phthalate metabolites varied from 75% (MEHP) to 100% (MEP, MBP, MEOHP, MEHHP and MECPP). Medians of urinary concentrations of some phthalate metabolites were significantly higher among users of the following personal care products compared to nonusers: body lotion (MEHHP, MECPP and sum of DEHP metabolites (ΣDEHP)), deodorant (MEHP and ΣDEHP), perfume (MiBP), anti-aging facial cream (MEP, MBP and MCPP) and bottled water (MCPP, MEHHP and MEOHP). Urinary concentrations of MEP showed a positive relationship with the number of personal care products used. Our results suggest that the use of some personal care products contributes to phthalate body burden that deserves attention due to its potential health impact.     

Spatial heterogeneity of PM10 and O3 in São Paulo, Brazil, and implications for human health studies

Developing exposure estimates is a challenging aspect of investigating the health effects of air pollution. Pollutant levels recorded at centrally located ambient air quality monitors in a community are commonly used as proxies for population exposures. However, if ample intraurban spatial variation in pollutants exists, city-wide averages of concentrations may introduce exposure misclassification. We assessed spatial heterogeneity of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10) and ozone (O3) and evaluated implications for epidemiological studies in S?o Paulo, Brazil, using daily (24-hr) and daytime (12-hr) averages and 1-hr daily maximums of pollutant levels recorded at the regulatory monitoring network. Monitor locations were also analyzed with respect to a socioeconomic status index developed by the municipal government. Hourly PM10 and O3 data for the Sāo Paulo Municipality and Metropolitan Region (1999-2006) were used to evaluate heterogeneity by comparing distance between monitors with pollutants' correlations and coefficients of divergence (CODs). Both pollutants showed high correlations across monitoring sites (median = 0.8 for daily averages). CODs across sites averaged 0.20. Distance was a good predictor of CODs for PM10 (p < 0.01) but not O3, whereas distance was a good predictor of correlations for O3 (p < 0.01) but not PM10. High COD values and low temporal correlation indicate a spatially heterogeneous distribution of PM10. Ozone levels were highly correlated (r > or = 0.75), but high CODs suggest that averaging over O3 levels may obscure important spatial variations. Of municipal districts in the highest of five socioeconomic groups, 40% have > or = 1 monitor, whereas districts in the lowest two groups, representing half the population, have no monitors. Results suggest that there is a potential for exposure misclassification based on the available monitoring network and that spatial heterogeneity depends on pollutant metric (e.g., daily average vs. daily 1-hr maximum). A denser monitoring network or alternative exposure methods may be needed for epidemiological research. Findings demonstrate the importance of considering spatial heterogeneity and differential exposure misclassification by subpopulation.     

Predicting Streambed Sediment and Water Column Escherichia coli Levels at Watershed Scale

A sub‐model for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is developed to predict Escherichia coli levels in the streambed sediment as well as in the water column. New formulations to estimate the levels of E. coli in streambed sediment and the water column are derived. These equations include calculations of E. coli resuspension from the streambed sediment to the water column, E. coli deposition from the water column to the streambed sediment, E. coli growth in the streambed sediment and the water column, and instream E. coli routing. These formulations were programmed in FORTRAN and integrated into SWAT. The modified SWAT model was applied to Squaw Creek Watershed, Iowa, to predict E. coli levels in the stream. Escherichia coli concentrations in the streambed sediment and the water column were monitored extensively in this watershed, and observations were used to verify the model predictions. The model proposed here can predict E. coli concentrations in streambed sediment as well as in the water column. Approximately 58% of the predictions of E. coli levels in the bed sediment were within 1 order of magnitude from the observed value, and in the water column 83% of the predictions of E. coli levels were within 1 order of magnitude. Results suggest that the proposed model will help predictions of instream bacterial contamination.     

Science–policy processes for transboundary water governance

In this policy perspective, we outline several conditions to support effective science–policy interaction, with a particular emphasis on improving water governance in transboundary basins. Key conditions include (1) recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into water resource decision-making processes; (2) establishing conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among actors; (3) understanding that social or group-learning processes linked to science–policy interaction are enhanced through greater collaboration; (4) accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge about hydrological issues and associated socioeconomic change and institutional responses is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes; and (5) engaging boundary organizations and informal networks of scientists, policy makers, and civil society. We elaborate on these conditions with a diverse set of international examples drawn from a synthesis of our collective experiences in assessing the opportunities and constraints (including the role of power relations) related to governance for water in transboundary settings.     

The role the Great Barrier Reef plays in resident wellbeing and implications for its management

Improvements in human wellbeing are dependent on improving ecosystems. Such considerations are particularly pertinent for regions of high ecological, but also social and cultural importance that are facing rapid change. One such region is the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Although the GBR has world heritage status for its ‘outstanding universal value’, little is known about resident perceptions of its values. We surveyed 1545 residents, finding that absence of visible rubbish; healthy reef fish, coral cover, and mangroves; and iconic marine species, are considered to be more important to quality of life than the jobs and incomes associated with industry (most respondents were dissatisfied with the benefits they received from industry). Highly educated females placed more importance on environmental non-use values than other respondents; less educated males and those employed in mining found non-market use-values relatively more important. Environmental non-use values emerged as the most important management priority for all.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0554-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.