Sensitivity and first-step uncertainty analyses for the preferential flow model MACRO

Sensitivity analyses for the preferential flow model MACRO were carried out using one-at-a-time and Monte Carlo sampling approaches. Four different scenarios were generated by simulating leaching to depth of two hypothetical pesticides in a sandy loam and a more structured clay loam soil. Sensitivity of the model was assessed using the predictions for accumulated water percolated at a 1-m depth and accumulated pesticide losses in percolation. Results for simulated percolation were similar for the two soils. Predictions of water volumes percolated were found to be only marginally affected by changes in input parameters and the most influential parameter was the water content defining the boundary between micropores and macropores in this dual-porosity model. In contrast, predictions of pesticide losses were found to be dependent on the scenarios considered and to be significantly affected by variations in input parameters. In most scenarios, predictions for pesticide losses by MACRO were most influenced by parameters related to sorption and degradation. Under specific circumstances, pesticide losses can be largely affected by changes in hydrological properties of the soil. Since parameters were varied within ranges that approximated their uncertainty, a first-step assessment of uncertainty for the predictions of pesticide losses was possible. Large uncertainties in the predictions were reported, although these are likely to have been overestimated by considering a large number of input parameters in the exercise. It appears desirable that a probabilistic framework accounting for uncertainty is integrated into the estimation of pesticide exposure for regulatory purposes.     

Temporal trends for 99Tc in Norwegian coastal environments and spatial distribution in the Barents Sea

The objective of this study was to reassess 99Tc transit times and transfer factors, from Sellafield to northern Norway, and to determine the extent of 99Tc migration to the Barents Sea. Filtered seawater samples were collected on a monthly basis from Hilles?y, northern Norway, and in February 1999 from the Barents Sea. Results showed an increase in levels of 99Tc at Hilles?y where activity concentrations have increased from a baseline of 0.2-0.4Bq m(-3) to a maximum of 1.6 Bq m(-3). A transit time of 42 months and a transfer factor of 6Bq m(-3) per PBq a(-1) have been derived, using cross-correlation analysis. The current study predicts that future levels are unlikely to increase dramatically over the levels observed in 1998. Levels of 99Tc in the Barents Sea ranged from 0.2 Bq m(-3) to 1.1 Bq m(-3) showing the influence of new 99Tc inputs by early 1999.     

Monitored natural attenuation forum: The case for abiotic MNA

The environmental fate and transport of chlorinated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is controlled by the physical and chemical properties of the compound and the nature of the subsurface media through which the compound is migrating. Several processes (advection, dispersion, diffusion, biodegradation, and abiotic degradation, to name a few) result in a reduction in concentration and/or mass of contaminants in groundwater. Of these processes, biodegradation is often considered the dominant destructive attenuation mechanism for chlorinated VOCs. However, chlorinated VOCs can also degrade through abiotic processes and, in some cases, may be the primary or only destructive process occurring. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

SOCIAL WELL-BEING AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: For many years, Federal water resources projects have been subjected to benefit-cost analysis to establish their economic feasibility. Several years ago social well-being was added as a consideration. This paper discusses the state-of-the-art in analyzing and evaluating aspects of social well-being. It stresses current short-falls and advocates a direction for further efforts.     

Ethical issues associated with prenatal screening using non-invasive prenatal testing for sex chromosome aneuploidy

Prenatal screening for sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) is increasingly available through expanded non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). NIPT for SCAs raises complex ethical issues for clinical providers, prospective parents and future children. This paper discusses the ethical issues that arise around NIPT for SCAs and current guidelines and protocols for management. The first section outlines current practice and the limitations of NIPT for SCAs. It then outlines key guidelines before discussing the ethical issues raised by this use of NIPT. We conclude that while screening for SCAs should be made available for people seeking to use NIPT, its implementation requires careful consideration of what, when and how information is provided to users.     

Building institutions based on information disclosure: lessons from GRI's sustainability reporting

Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) is the best-known framework for voluntary reporting of environmental and social performance by business worldwide. Using extensive empirical data, including interviews and documentary analysis, we examine GRI's organizational field and conclude that since its modest beginnings in 1999 GRI has been by several measures a successful institutionalization project. But the institutional logic of this new entity, as an instrument for corporate sustainability management, leaves out one of the central elements of the initial vision for GRI: as a mobilizing agent for many societal actors. This emergent logic reflects GRI's dominant constituency – large global companies and financial institutions and international business management consultancies – and not the less active civil society organizations and organized labor. We attribute these developments to factors such as building GRI within the existing institutional structures; the highly inclusive multistakeholder process; and the underdeveloped base of information users. From the institutional theory perspective, this case shows how the process of institutionalization is deeply affected by initial strategies of the founders, and how it reproduces existing power relations. From the governance perspective, this case leads us to question the power of commodified information to mobilize civil society and to strengthen governance based on partnerships.     

Sensitivity analysis of the asymptotic behavior of a model for the environmental movement of radionuclides

The asymptotic behavior of a linear compartment model for the environmental movement of radionuclides is investigated. Here, the expression asymptotic behavior is used to designate the behavior of q(t) as t → ∞, where q is the solution of a vector differential equation of the form dq/dt = h + Kq. The asymptotic behavior of such equations is described. For the model and conditions under consideration, each element of q converges monotonically to a steady-state value. A hydrologic system is defined and used to illustrate this behavior. An approach to sensitivity analysis employing Latin hypercube sampling, rank transformations and stepwise regression is presented and then applied to this system. A total of 20 independent variables is introduced and the following dependent variables are investigated for the various components of the system: amount of radionuclide present at steady state. concentration of radionuclide at steady state, and time required to reach 90% of steady state. Finally, an application of asymptotic behavior in the analysis of a hypothetical site for the geologic isolation of high-level radioactive waste is described and a brief discussion of differential sensitivity analysis is given.     

Transaction costs for carbon sequestration projects in the tropical forest sector

There is general consensus that carbon (C) sequestration projects in forests are a relatively low cost option for mitigating climate change, but most studies on the subject have assumed that transaction costs are negligible. The objectives of the study were to examine transaction costs for forest C sequestration projects and to determine the significance of the costs based on economic analyses. Here we examine four case studies of active C sequestration projects being implemented in tropical countries and developed for the C market. The results from the case studies were then used with a dynamic forest and land use economic model to investigate how transaction costs affect the efficiency and cost of forest C projects globally. In the case studies transaction costs ranged from 0.38 to 27 million US dollars ($0.09 to $7.71/t CO₂) or 0.3 to 270 % of anticipated income depending principally on the price of C and project size. The three largest cost categories were insurance (under the voluntary market; 41–89 % of total costs), monitoring (3–42 %) and regulatory approval (8–50 %). The global analysis indicated that most existing estimates of marginal costs of C sequestration are underestimated by up to 30 % because transaction costs were not included.