Predicting Streambed Sediment and Water Column Escherichia coli Levels at Watershed Scale

A sub‐model for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is developed to predict Escherichia coli levels in the streambed sediment as well as in the water column. New formulations to estimate the levels of E. coli in streambed sediment and the water column are derived. These equations include calculations of E. coli resuspension from the streambed sediment to the water column, E. coli deposition from the water column to the streambed sediment, E. coli growth in the streambed sediment and the water column, and instream E. coli routing. These formulations were programmed in FORTRAN and integrated into SWAT. The modified SWAT model was applied to Squaw Creek Watershed, Iowa, to predict E. coli levels in the stream. Escherichia coli concentrations in the streambed sediment and the water column were monitored extensively in this watershed, and observations were used to verify the model predictions. The model proposed here can predict E. coli concentrations in streambed sediment as well as in the water column. Approximately 58% of the predictions of E. coli levels in the bed sediment were within 1 order of magnitude from the observed value, and in the water column 83% of the predictions of E. coli levels were within 1 order of magnitude. Results suggest that the proposed model will help predictions of instream bacterial contamination.     

Effects of 4-methylbenzylidene camphor (4-MBC) on neuronal and muscular development in zebrafish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Danio rerio</Emphasis>) embryos

The negative effects of overexposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation in humans, including sunburn and light-induced cellular injury, are of increasing public concern. 4-Methylbenzylidene camphor (4-MBC), an organic chemical UV filter, is an active ingredient in sunscreen products. To date, little information is available about its neurotoxicity during early vertebrate development. Zebrafish embryos were exposed to various concentrations of 4-MBC in embryo medium for 3 days. In this study, a high concentration of 4-MBC, which is not being expected at the current environmental concentrations in the environment, was used for the purpose of phenotypic screening. Embryos exposed to 15 μM of 4-MBC displayed abnormal axial curvature and exhibited impaired motility. Exposure effects were found to be greatest during the segmentation period, when somite formation and innervation occur. Immunostaining of the muscle and axon markers F59, znp1, and zn5 revealed that 4-MBC exposure leads to a disorganized pattern of slow muscle fibers and axon pathfinding errors during the innervation of both primary and secondary motor neurons. Our results also showed reduction in AChE activity upon 4-MBC exposure both in vivo in the embryos (15 μM) and in vitro in mammalian Neuro-2A cells (0.1 μM), providing a possible mechanism for 4-MBC-induced muscular and neuronal defects. Taken together, our results have shown that 4-MBC is a teratogen and influences muscular and neuronal development, which may result in developmental defects.     

Regionalization of climate scenarios impacts on maize production and the role of cultivar and planting date as an adaptation strategy

Understanding climate change and its impacts on crops is crucial to determine adaptation strategies. Simulations of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are often run for individual sites. Nevertheless, the scaling up of crop model results can bring a more complete picture, providing better inputs for the decision-making process. The objective of this paper was to present a procedure to assess the regional impacts of climate scenarios on maize production, as well as the effect of crop cultivars and planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The focus region is Santa Catarina State, Brazil. The identification of agricultural areas cultivated with annual crops was done for the whole state, followed by the coupling of soil and weather information necessary for the crop modeling procedure (using crop model and regional circulation models). The impact on maize yields, so as the effect of adaptation strategies, was calculated for the 2012–2040 period assuming different maize cultivars and planting dates. Results showed that the exclusion of non-agricultural areas allowed the crop model to correctly simulate local and regional production. Simulations run without adaptation strategies for the 2012–2040 period showed reductions of 11.5–13.5 % in total maize production, depending on the cultivar. By using the best cultivar for each agricultural area, total state production was increased by 6 %; when using both adaptation strategies—cultivar and best planting date—total production increased by 15 %. This analysis showed that cultivar and planting date are feasible adaptation strategies to mitigate deleterious effects of climate scenarios, and crop models can be successfully used for regional assessments.     

Science–policy processes for transboundary water governance

In this policy perspective, we outline several conditions to support effective science–policy interaction, with a particular emphasis on improving water governance in transboundary basins. Key conditions include (1) recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into water resource decision-making processes; (2) establishing conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among actors; (3) understanding that social or group-learning processes linked to science–policy interaction are enhanced through greater collaboration; (4) accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge about hydrological issues and associated socioeconomic change and institutional responses is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes; and (5) engaging boundary organizations and informal networks of scientists, policy makers, and civil society. We elaborate on these conditions with a diverse set of international examples drawn from a synthesis of our collective experiences in assessing the opportunities and constraints (including the role of power relations) related to governance for water in transboundary settings.     

The role the Great Barrier Reef plays in resident wellbeing and implications for its management

Improvements in human wellbeing are dependent on improving ecosystems. Such considerations are particularly pertinent for regions of high ecological, but also social and cultural importance that are facing rapid change. One such region is the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Although the GBR has world heritage status for its ‘outstanding universal value’, little is known about resident perceptions of its values. We surveyed 1545 residents, finding that absence of visible rubbish; healthy reef fish, coral cover, and mangroves; and iconic marine species, are considered to be more important to quality of life than the jobs and incomes associated with industry (most respondents were dissatisfied with the benefits they received from industry). Highly educated females placed more importance on environmental non-use values than other respondents; less educated males and those employed in mining found non-market use-values relatively more important. Environmental non-use values emerged as the most important management priority for all.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0554-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Land management and environmental change in small-island-developing states: the case of St. Lucia

Regional Environmental Change - Although the history of the plantation economy and its land tenure legacy have contributed significantly to environmental degradation in Caribbean...     

Composite likelihood approach to the regression analysis of spatial multivariate ordinal data and spatial compositional data with exact zero values

In many environmental and ecological studies, it is of interest to model compositional data. One approach is to consider positive random vectors that are subject to a unit-sum constraint. In landscape ecological studies, it is common that compositional data are also sampled in space with some elements of the composition absent at certain sampling sites. In this paper, we first propose a practical spatial multivariate ordered probit model for multivariate ordinal data, where the response variables can be viewed as the discretized non-negative compositions without the unit-sum constraint. We then propose a novel two-stage spatial mixture Dirichlet regression model. The first stage models the spatial dependence and the presence of exact zero values, and the second stage models all the non-zero compositional data. A maximum composite likelihood approach is developed for parameter estimation and inference in both the spatial multivariate ordered probit model and the two-stage spatial mixture Dirichlet regression model. The standard errors of the parameter estimates are computed by an estimate of the Godambe information matrix. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and methods. A land cover data example in landscape ecology further illustrates that accounting for spatial dependence can improve the accuracy in the prediction of presence/absence of different land covers as well as the magnitude of land cover compositions.     

Social capital as a key determinant of perceived benefits of community‐based marine protected areas

Globally, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been relatively unsuccessful in meeting biodiversity objectives. To be effective, they require some alteration of people's use and access to marine resources, which they will resist if they do not perceive associated benefits. Stakeholders’ support is crucial to ecological success of MPAs, and their support is likely to depend on their capacity to adapt to and benefit from MPAs. We examined the influence of social adaptive capacity (SAC) on perceived benefits of MPAs in Siquijor, Philippines, in the Coral Triangle. This region has substantial biodiversity and a population of over 120 million people, many of them dependent on marine resources for food and income. The region has many MPAs, most of which are managed under decentralized governance systems. We collected survey data from 540 households in 19 villages with associated MPAs. We evaluated the influence of multiple SAC variables (e.g., occupational multiplicity and social capital) on perceived benefits with decision trees (CHAID) and qualitatively analyzed this relationship with respect to types and recipients of benefits. Our models revealed the key role of social capital, particularly trust in leadership, in influencing perceptions of benefits (χ² = 14.762, p = 0.000). A path analysis revealed that perceptions of distributional equity were a key mechanism through which social capital affected perceived MPA benefits (root mean‐square error of approximation = 0.050). Building social capital and equity within communities could lead to more effective management of MPAs and thus to expenditure of fewer resources relative to, for example, regulation enforcement.     

Elements of a certification system for forestry-based carbon offset projects

Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will require theestablishment of procedures for monitoring,verification and certification of carbon offsetprojects. In this paper, the steps required forindependent certification of forestry-based carbonoffset projects are reviewed, based on the proceduresused by the international certification companySociété Générale de Surveillance.Firstly, a project must be evaluated for itssuitability in relation to eligibility criteria of theKyoto Protocol. These eligibility criteria areclassified under four headings: (a) acceptability tohost country parties and international agreements; (b)additionality, in terms of demonstrated positivegreenhouse gas effects additional to the`business-as-usual' case; (c) externalities orunwanted side effects; and, (d) capacity to implementproject's activities. Secondly, the scientificmethodology for calculating the carbon offsets and themethodology for data collection and statisticalanalysis must be evaluated. Additionally, the amountof carbon offsets quantified must be adjusted toreflect the uncertainty associated with themethodology and data used. Only when these steps havebeen completed can carbon offsets be certified.Finally, the paper discusses the importance ofstandardization of methods and procedures used forproject monitoring and verification, and the need foraccreditation to ensure that the activities ofcertifiers are regulated.