Model-driven development of covariances for spatiotemporal environmental health assessment

Known conceptual and technical limitations of mainstream environmental health data analysis have directed research to new avenues. The goal is to deal more efficiently with the inherent uncertainty and composite space-time heterogeneity of key attributes, account for multi-sourced knowledge bases (health models, survey data, empirical relationships etc.), and generate more accurate predictions across space-time. Based on a versatile, knowledge synthesis methodological framework, we introduce new space-time covariance functions built by integrating epidemic propagation models and we apply them in the analysis of existing flu datasets. Within the knowledge synthesis framework, the Bayesian maximum entropy theory is our method of choice for the spatiotemporal prediction of the ratio of new infectives (RNI) for a case study of flu in France. The space-time analysis is based on observations during a period of 15 weeks in 1998–1999. We present general features of the proposed covariance functions, and use these functions to explore the composite space-time RNI dependency. We then implement the findings to generate sufficiently detailed and informative maps of the RNI patterns across space and time. The predicted distributions of RNI suggest substantive relationships in accordance with the typical physiographic and climatologic features of the country.     

The determinants of support levels for wind energy in the European Union. An econometric study

The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that drive support levels for wind on-shore electricity in the Member States of the European Union (EU) with the help of econometric techniques. The econometric analysis is based on cross-section linear regressions with ordinary least squares. Four alternative specifications of the model have been estimated. The estimates comply with the basic hypotheses of the lineal model, i.e., absence of multicollinearity, accurate functional form, homokedasticity and normality in the distribution of errors. Thus, the estimations are unbiased, efficient and consistent. The results show that countries with higher wind energy generation costs have higher support levels. The higher support levels in countries with higher carbon intensities suggest that wind energy deployment is regarded as effective to mitigate carbon emissions. The type of support scheme also influences support levels, with feed-in tariffs leading to lower levels of support than other instruments. In addition, a general good investment climate in the country makes higher support levels less necessary, stressing the importance of lowering risks in order to reduce support levels and, thus, financial transfers from consumers to producers. Thus, providing stable regulatory frameworks should be a priority of policy-makers. The rest of variables (renewable energy resource potentials, administrative barriers, energy import dependency, interest rates, share of wind energy in total electricity generation as a proxy of lobbying pressures and electricity demand) are not statistically significant in most specifications and some of them do not have the expected sign.     

Comparison of European national legislation efficiency on the reduction of air pollutant emissions

Since 1995, the Institute for Environment and Development in Portugal has obtained >300 stack samples from various point sources of Portuguese industries. A coherent database was made with the collected results. The limit values fixed by several European legal documents consulted, Portuguese, Spanish, French, Italian, and Dutch emission legislation, were applied to the Institute for Environment and Development stack sampling inventory (from 1995 to 2000) to evaluate the efficiency of these standards in promoting the control and reduction of atmospheric pollutants emissions, especially regarding nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and particulate matter. The conclusion was that the original Portuguese legislation was not restrictive enough and not very efficient regarding emissions reduction. In contrast, the Dutch and Italian legislations are quite restrictive but very efficient concerning emission control for the three pollutants analyzed. One of the outcomes of this study was the publication of a new law in Portugal regulating the emissions of atmospheric pollutants. The strategy of this emissions control law follows the conclusions found in this study including the concept of a mass flow threshold and different approaches depending on source dimension.     

Radioactivity in trinitite six decades later

The first nuclear explosion test, named the Trinity test, was conducted on July 16, 1945 near Alamogordo, New Mexico. In the tremendous heat of the explosion, the radioactive debris fused with the local soil into a glassy material named Trinitite. Selected Trinitite samples from ground zero (GZ) of the test site were investigated in detail for radioactivity. The techniques used included alpha spectrometry, high-efficiency gamma-ray spectrometry, and low-background beta counting, following the radiochemistry for selected radionuclides. Specific activities were determined for fission products (90Sr, 137Cs), activation products (60Co, 133Ba, 152Eu, 154Eu, 238Pu, 241Pu), and the remnants of the nuclear fuel (239Pu, 240Pu). Additionally, specific activities of three natural radionuclides (40K, 232Th, 238U) and their progeny were measured. The determined specific activities of radionuclides and their relationships are interpreted in the context of the fission process, chemical behavior of the elements, as well as the nuclear explosion phenomenology.     

CENTRIFUGE MODELING OF ONE-DIMENSIONAL SUBSURFACE CONTAMINATION1

ABSTRACT: One-dimensional contaminant transport through a saturated soil is modeled using a 1.2-m radius geotechnical centrifuge. Small-scale physical modeling in the centrifuge is achieved in relatively short time, at stress distributions that are similar to those experienced in the prototype (actual site). A 0.05 mol/l of sodium chloride solution is used as a contaminant and conductivity cells measure the concentration of the contaminant throughout the porous medium. Scaling analysis for centrifuge modeling and 1-g modeling are briefly discussed and it is concluded that centrifuge modeling simulates the effect of molecular diffusion; however, scaling of the effect of mechanical dispersion may be violated in the centrifuge if the interstitial fluid velocity is high. Centrifuge test results show good agreement with the predicted relationship between the coefficient of hydrodynamic dispersion and the Peclet number using column tests. Centrifuge modeling can be used as a complement of numerical modeling although the effect of mechanical dispersion may be overestimated in the former.     

Adsorption behavior of α -cypermethrin on cork and activated carbon

Studies were undertaken to determine the adsorption behavior of α -cypermethrin [R)-α -cyano-3-phenoxybenzyl(1S)-cis-3-(2,2-dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethylcyclopropanecarboxylate, and (S)-α-cyano-3-phenoxybenzyl (1R)-cis-3-(2,2-dichlorovinyl)-2,2-dimethylcyclopropanecarboxylate] in solutions on granules of cork and activated carbon (GAC). The adsorption studies were carried out using a batch equilibrium technique. A gas chromatograph with an electron capture detector (GC-ECD) was used to analyze α -cypermethrin after solid phase extraction with C18 disks. Physical properties including real density, pore volume, surface area and pore diameter of cork were evaluated by mercury porosimetry. Characterization of cork particles showed variations thereby indicating the highly heterogeneous structure of the material. The average surface area of cork particles was lower than that of GAC. Kinetics adsorption studies allowed the determination of the equilibrium time—24 hours for both cork (1–2 mm and 3–4 mm) and GAC. For the studied α -cypermethrin concentration range, GAC revealed to be a better sorbent. However, adsorption parameters for equilibrium concentrations, obtained through the Langmuir and Freundlich models, showed that granulated cork 1–2 mm have the maximum amount of adsorbed α-cypermethrin (q_m) (303 μg/g); followed by GAC (186 μ g/g) and cork 3-4 mm (136 μg/g). The standard deviation (SD) values, demonstrate that Freundlich model better describes the α -cypermethrin adsorption phenomena on GAC, while α -cypermethrin adsorption on cork (1-2 mm and 3-4 mm) is better described by the Langmuir. In view of the adsorption results obtained in this study it appears that granulated cork may be a better and a cheaper alternative to GAC for removing α -cypermethrin from water.     

Validation of isotope signatures in sediments affected by anthropogenic inputs from uranium series radionuclides

This paper aims to show the usefulness of 226Ra/228Ra activity ratios and confirm the possibility of using 230Th/232Th activity ratios as chronological markers in sediment cores from an estuarine system strongly contaminated by discharges from non-nuclear industries (fertiliser plants). The validation was carried out using an independent, well-established dating technique based on the analysis of the 137Cs fallout profile, which comprises the same time interval as that covered by both isotope ratios. The advantage of using the 226Ra/228Ra activity ratio profile instead of the Th-isotope profile is that determination can be accomplished with a non-destructive, simpler and less time-consuming technique, because both Ra isotopes can be determined by gamma-ray spectrometry.