Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mapping Economic Returns to Agriculture for Informing Environmental Policy in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

We integrate information from several disparate data sources including agricultural statistics and remote sensing to quantify and map the distribution and dynamics of agricultural returns to land and water resources from 1996/1997 to 2000/2001 in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), Australia. Total profit to agriculture was estimated at AUD3.86B in 1996/1997 and AUD3.73B in 2000/2001. The mapping reveals a high spatial concentration of economic returns to land and water resources from agriculture. Dryland agriculture covers over 82% of the study area. Irrigated agriculture covers 1.7% of the land area (2000/2001) but returns one third of the total profit to agriculture. We found that around 80% of the profit to agriculture comes from just over 5% of the land area. The results from this regional scale economic mapping can inform regulatory policy and public investments in natural resource management through targeting industries and regions that provide low marginal returns to the natural resource base.     

Long-term changes in acidity and DOC in throughfall and soil water in Finnish forests

The main objective of this study was to examine if any detectable trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), sulphate (SO₄-S) concentrations and acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in throughfall (TF) and soil water (SW) could be found during 1990–2010 and to relate them to recent changes in decreased acid deposition. The study was conducted in seven boreal coniferous forest sites: four of which are managed and three unmanaged forests sites. Generally, temporal trend showed a significant decrease in SO₄-S concentrations in bulk precipitation (BP), TF and SW. At some of the sites, there was an increasing tendency in BP and TF in the DOC concentrations. This feature coincides with decreasing SO₄-S concentration, indicating that SO₄-S may be an important driver of DOC release from the canopy. However, a slightly increased temperature, larger senescing needle mass and consequently increased decaying activity in the canopy may partly explain the increasing trend in DOC. In SW, no consistent DOC trend was seen. At some sites, the decreased base cation concentrations mostly account for the decrease in the ANC values in SW and TF.     

The Role of Observer Variation in Determining Rosgen Stream Types in Northeastern Oregon Mountain Streams1

Abstract: Consistency in determining Rosgen stream types was evaluated in 12 streams within the John Day Basin, northeastern Oregon. The Rosgen classification system is commonly used in the western United States and is based on the measurement of five stream attributes: entrenchment ratio, width‐to‐depth ratio, sinuosity, slope, and substrate size. Streams were classified from measurements made by three monitoring groups, with each group fielding multiple crews that conducted two to three independent surveys of each stream. In only four streams (33%) did measurements from all crews in all monitoring groups yield the same stream type. Most differences found among field crews and monitoring groups could be attributed to differences in estimates of the entrenchment ratio. Differences in entrenchment ratio were likely due to small discrepancies in determination of maximum bankfull depth, leading to potentially large differences in determination of Rosgen’s flood‐prone width and consequent values of entrenchment. The result was considerable measurement variability among crews within a monitoring group, and because entrenchment ratio is the first discriminator in the Rosgen classification, differences in the assessment of this value often resulted in different determination of primary stream types. In contrast, we found that consistently evaluated attributes, such as channel slope, rarely resulted in any differences in classification. We also found that the Rosgen method can yield nonunique solutions (multiple channel types), with no clear guidance for resolving these situations, and we found that some assigned stream types did not match the appearance of the evaluated stream. Based on these observations we caution the use of Rosgen stream classes for communicating conditions of a single stream or as strata when analyzing many streams due to the reliance of the Rosgen approach on bankfull estimates which are inherently uncertain.     

Evaluating long-term nitrogen- versus phosphorus-based nutrient management of poultry litter

Environmental concerns are driving manure management in many areas from a traditional nitrogen (N) basis toward phosphorus (P)-based nutrient management plans. We investigated how changing nutrient management from an N to a P basis affected crop yields and soil properties in high P soils over a 7-yr period. Three sites were established on farmers' fields, and at each site the same six treatments were applied for 6 or 7 yr. These treatments were (i) no P; (ii) poultry litter applied on an N basis; (iii) inorganic P, equal to the P applied in treatment 2; (iv) poultry litter applied on an estimated annual crop P removal basis; (v) inorganic P, equal to the P applied in treatment iv; and (vi) poultry litter applied once every 2 or 3 yr at a 2- or 3-yr crop removal P rate. All treatments received the same rate of plant-available N. Yields, P balance, soil pH, Mehlich 1 P, and water-soluble P (WSP) were monitored during the experiment. Over the course of the experiment, litter had the beneficial effect of raising soil pH relative to the inorganic treatments. After 7 yr, Mehlich 1 P and WSP were greatest in soils under the N-based treatments, smallest in the no P treatment, and intermediate in the P-based treatments. For example, at the Shenandoah site, Mehlich 1 P decreased by 35 mg kg(-1) under the no P treatment and increased by 36 mg kg(-1) under the inorganic N-based treatment. There were no significant differences between inorganic fertilizer and poultry litter nutrient sources. The results of this study show that soil test P can be decreased in high-P soils over a few years by changing from an N-based to a P-based nutrient management plan or stopping P applications without negatively affecting yields.     

Effects of air pollution from road transport on growth and physiology of six transplanted bryophyte species

Motor vehicles emit a cocktail of pollutants; however, little is known about the effects of these pollutants on bryophytes located in roadside habitats. Six bryophyte species were transplanted to either a woodland or a moorland site adjacent to a motorway, and were monitored over seven months from autumn through to spring. All species showed an increase in one or more of the following near the motorway: growth, membrane leakage, chlorophyll concentration, and nitrogen concentration. The strongest effects were observed in the first 50-100 m from the motorway: this was consistent with the nitrogen dioxide pollution profile, which decreased to background levels at a distance of 100-125 m. It is hypothesised that motor vehicle pollution was responsible for the effects observed, and that nitrogen oxides had a key influence. The observed effects may lead to changes in vegetation composition with significant implications for nature conservation and management of roadside sites.