RIVPACS models for predicting the expected macroinvertebrate fauna and assessing the ecological quality of rivers

The European Union Water Framework Directive recognises the need for and value of biological monitoring. This paper reviews the modelling approach known as River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS for assessing the ecological quality of river sites using macroinvertebrate sampling. The RIVPACS philosophy is to develop statistical relationships between the fauna and the environmental characteristics of a large set of high quality reference sites which can be used to predict the macroinvertebrate fauna to be expected at any site in the absence of pollution or other environmental stress. The observed fauna at new test sites can then be compared with their site-specific expected fauna to derive indices of ecological quality. All methodological decisions in any such model development have implications for the reliability, precision and robustness of any resulting indices for assessing the ecological quality and ecological grade (‘status’) of individual river stretches. The choice of reference sites and environmental predictor variables, the site classification and discrimination methods, the estimation of the expected fauna, and indices for comparing the agreement, or lack of it, between the observed and expected fauna, are all discussed. The indices are assessed on the reference sites and on a separate test set of 340 sites, which are subject to a wide range of types and degrees of impairment.     

Predictive vegetation modeling for conservation: impact of error propagation from digital elevation data.

The effect of digital elevation model (DEM) error on environmental variables, and subsequently on predictive habitat models, has not been explored. Based on an error analysis of a DEM, multiple error realizations of the DEM were created and used to develop both direct and indirect environmental variables for input to predictive habitat models. The study explores the effects of DEM error and the resultant uncertainty of results on typical steps in the modeling procedure for prediction of vegetation species presence/absence. Results indicate that all of these steps and results, including the statistical significance of environmental variables, shapes of species response curves in generalized additive models (GAMs), stepwise model selection, coefficients and standard errors for generalized linear models (GLMs), prediction accuracy (Cohen's kappa and AUC), and spatial extent of predictions, were greatly affected by this type of error. Error in the DEM can affect the reliability of interpretations of model results and level of accuracy in predictions, as well as the spatial extent of the predictions. We suggest that the sensitivity of DEM-derived environmental variables to error in the DEM should be considered before including them in the modeling processes.     

A new policy‐related measure of population dispersal and sparsity using GIS

Policy indicators applied at a national scale can have considerable financial impact for resource allocations to individual counties, especially if there are extreme local factors. This article develops arid explores a new measure of population dispersal and sparsity and discusses the impact of this indicator in a variety of locations, by using GIS techniques.     

The Scottish economy: the development of underdevelopment?

This paper describes the recent economic history of the Scottish economy and uses a synthesised theory of labour market segmentation and the dual economy to identify the origins of the relative decline of Scottish industry and labour over the period, critically evaluating the role of the SDA and of government policy in general. Incorporating the impacts of takeover and merger of indigenous companies, the promotion of the branch plant economy, the selective effects of emigration and training schemes, and the reliance on small and medium sized companies to regenerate the economies of city‐regions, an analysis based on the importance of the centre‐periphery relations of monopoly capitalism for the Scottish economy is undertaken.     

Renewable energy projects

The promotion of renewable energy during the last decade did not result in widescale application of the technology. In many cases, technologies were promoted before they were commercially viable or were inappropriately selected for the particular end-use application. In other cases, a lack of local technical expertise and support infrastructure was absent to sustain the technology once it had been placed in the field. There was also a loss of donor interest and funding for renewables concomitant with the decline in oil prices. This paper attempts to summarize lessons learned from this decade of experience with renewable energy and to offer criteria and suggestions for future activities in transferring renewable energy technology.     

The Role of Mineral Weathering Rate Determinations in Generating Uncertainties in the Calculation of Critical Loads of Acidity and their Exceedance

Current legislation within Europe aimed at limitingecosystem damage resulting from inputs of atmosphericpollution is based on the critical load concept. Mineralweathering rates are central to the calculation ofcritical loads (acceptable levels) of acid deposition.The authors have undertaken a number of studies whichillustrate the complications and limitations inherent inpredicting mineral weathering rates and the implicationswhich these have for critical loads calculations andmapping. Calculated weathering rates and critical loadsfor two acid-sensitive parent materials (greywackes andgranites) are presented and are used to illustrate theimpact that uncertainty can have on critical loadexceedances. The results have obvious implications forportraying the uncertainties of critical loads to policy makers.     

Variable impact of rice (Oryza sativa) on soil metal reduction and availability of pore water Fe2+ and Mn2+ throughout the growth period

Flooding of wetland or agricultural soils can result in substantial alteration of the pore water trace metal profiles and potentially also influence the bioavailability of other trace elements adsorbed to the insoluble oxides. Experimental microcosms were used to quantify the impact of rice (Oryza sativa) plants across an entire growing cycle on the concentrations of Mn²⁺ and Fe²⁺ in two soil types (red sodosol and grey vertosol). Two water management treatments were included: a standard flooded treatment and a saturated treatment (?3?kPa). Soil pore water profiles were established from samples collected at four sampling depths (2.5, 7.5, 15 and 25?cm) on 50 occasions. Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ concentrations were higher in flooded soil than in saturated soil and greatest at a depth of 7.5?cm. The presence of rice plants increased Mn²⁺ concentrations in flooded soils, but tended to decrease Mn²⁺ concentrations in saturated soils. The influence of rice plants on Fe²⁺ concentrations was greatest at a depth of 7.5?cm. Changes in soil pore water Fe²⁺ and Mn²⁺ concentrations due to the presence of rice plants were correlated with flowering and reproduction.     

Biotic control of stream fluxes: spawning salmon drive nutrient and matter export

Organisms can control movements of nutrients and matter by physically modifying habitat. We examined how an ecosystem engineer, sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), influences seasonal fluxes of sediments, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in streams of southwestern Alaska. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether salmon act as net importers or net exporters of matter and nutrients from streams and how these roles change as a function of salmon population density. We measured discharge and concentrations of suspended sediments and total N and P every 7-14 days for up to four summers in 10 streams spanning a gradient in salmon densities. We statistically allocated whole-season fluxes to salmon activities, such as excretion and bioturbation, and to export by hydrologic discharge. In addition, we used counts of spawning salmon to estimate nutrient and matter imports by salmon to streams. Large seasonal pulses of suspended sediments, P, and N were associated with salmon spawning activities, often increasing export an order of magnitude higher than during pre-salmon levels. Years and streams with more salmon had significantly higher levels of export of sediments and nutrients. In addition, years with higher precipitation had higher background export of P and N. Salmon exported an average of the equivalent of 189%, 60%, and 55% of total matter, P, and N that salmon imported in their bodies. The relative magnitude of export varied; salmon exported more than their bodies imported in 80%, 20%, and 16% across all streams and years for sediments, P, and N, respectively. A bioassay experiment indicated that the P exported by salmon is directly available for use by primary producers in the downstream lake. These results demonstrate that salmon not only move nutrients upstream on large spatial scales via their migration from the ocean and subsequent death, but also redistribute matter and nutrients on finer spatial scales through their spawning activities.