Environmental Assessment Framework for Policy Applications: Life Cycle Assessment,External Costs and Multi-criteria Analysis

The paper presents a framework for the analysis of external costs of environmental burdens, namely an impact pathway analysis, often coupled with the inventory stage of life cycle assessment (LCA). The ground rule is: quantify as much as possible in terms of burdens (pollutant emissions, etc.), impacts, and their monetary equivalent, then use multi-criteria analysis (MCA) for any remaining impacts that are considered to be too uncertain or defy quantification through to monetization. Although MCA could be used directly on estimates of burdens or impacts, monetary valuation provides a mechanism for consistent weighting of impacts categories based on assessment of public preference. Further advantages of extending LCA through detailed impact assessment combined with monetary valuation are that it greatly simplifies MCA by combining a large number of different environmental impact categories, thereby avoiding an unmanageably large number of criteria, and also facilitates cost benefit analysis (CBA). The risks are noted of inappropriate use of the tools or interpretation/use of the results, and recommendations are made for improved practice. These points are illustrated with examples. The key messages are: (1) that policies should be targeted correctly to give a clear signal which source of a burden should be reduced by how much; (2) that analysts should take into account the needs of policy makers and the link between the analysis and possible policy applications; and (3) that current LCA practice gives limited guidance in both areas, largely through a lack of consideration of the relative and absolute importance of different types of impact. However, this is precisely the strength of external costs analysis, particularly when used with MCA.     

Sub-cooled and flashing liquid jets and droplet dispersion I. Overview and model implementation/validation

Many accidents involve two-phase releases of hazardous chemicals into the atmosphere. This paper describes the results of a third phase of a Joint Industry Project (JIP) on liquid jets and two-phase droplet dispersion. The aim of the project is to increase the understanding of the behaviour of sub-cooled non-flashing and superheated flashing liquid jets, and to improve the prediction of initial droplet size, droplet dispersion and rainout.Phase III of the JIP first included scaled experiments for materials with a range of volatilities (water, cyclohexane, butane, propane and gasoline). These experiments were carried out by Cardiff University including measurements of flow rate and initial droplet size across the full relevant range of superheats. See the companion paper II for further details of these experiments and the derivation of new refined correlations for droplet size distribution and Sauter Mean Diameter. Furthermore large-scale butane experiments were carried out by INERIS (France) to ensure that for more realistic scenarios the derived droplet size correlations are accurate.Model validation and model improvements were carried out by DNV Software, including validation of release rate and initial droplet size against the above scaled and large-scale experiments. New correlations for droplet size distribution and Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) were implemented into the Phast discharge model. These were compared against a range of other droplet size and rainout correlations published in the literature, in conjunction with validation against an extensive set of experiments. It was shown that the new droplet size correlation agrees better against experimental data than the existing Phast correlation. To further improve the rainout prediction, the Phast dispersion model (UDM) was also extended to allow simultaneous modelling of a range of droplet sizes and distributed rainout (rather than rainout at one point).     

Vulnerability of land systems to fire: Interactions among humans,climate, the atmosphere,and ecosystems

Fires are critical elements in the Earth System, linking climate, humans, and vegetation. With 200–500 Mha burnt annually, fire disturbs a greater area over a wider variety of biomes than any other natural disturbance. Fire ignition, propagation, and impacts depend on the interactions among climate, vegetation structure, and land use on local to regional scales. Therefore, fires and their effects on terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to global change. Fires can cause dramatic changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. They have significant impacts on the atmosphere and biogeochemical cycles. By contributing significantly to greenhouse gas (e.g., with the release of 1.7–4.1 Pg of carbon per year) and aerosol emissions, and modifying surface properties, they affect not only vegetation but also climate. Fires also modify the provision of a variety of ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, grazing value, biodiversity, and tourism, and can hence trigger land use change. Fires must therefore be included in global and regional assessments of vulnerability to global change. Fundamental understanding of vulnerability of land systems to fire is required to advise management and policy. Assessing regional vulnerabilities resulting from biophysical and human consequences of changed fire regimes under global change scenarios requires an integrated approach. Here we present a generic conceptual framework for such integrated, multidisciplinary studies. The framework is structured around three interacting (partially nested) subsystems whose contribute to vulnerability. The first subsystem describes the controls on fire regimes (exposure). A first feedback subsystem links fire regimes to atmospheric and climate dynamics within the Earth System (sensitivity), while the second feedback subsystem links changes in fire regimes to changes in the provision of ecological services and to their consequences for human systems (adaptability). We then briefly illustrate how the framework can be applied to two regional cases with contrasting ecological and human context: boreal forests of northern America and African savannahs.     

In harm's way: children's environmental health

2002 has been a landmark year for children's environmental health, with several major international conferences dedicated to the issue and the publication of numerous reports and studies. In this article we review how and why children's health has emerged as a key environmental policy issue and what the analytical sciences can contribute.     

QUANTIFYING URBAN INTENSITY IN DRAINAGE BASINS FOR ASSESSING STREAM ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: Three investigations are underway, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water‐Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program, to study the relation between varying levels of urban intensity in drainage basins and in‐stream water quality, measured by physical, chemical, and biological factors. These studies are being conducted in the vicinities of Boston (Massachusetts), Salt Lake City (Utah), and Birmingham (Alabama), areas where rapid urbanization is occurring. For each study, water quality will be sampled in approximately 30 drainage basins that represent a gradient of urban intensity. This paper focuses on the methods used to characterize and select the basins used in the studies. It presents a methodology for limiting the variability of natural landscape characteristics in the potential study drainage basins and for ranking the magnitude of human influence, or urbanization, based on land cover, infrastructure, and socioeconomic data in potential study basins. Basin characterization efforts associated with the Boston study are described for illustrative purposes.     

Evaluation and Improvement of a Dry Deposition Model using SO2 and O3 Measurements over a Mixed Forest

A dry deposition model (RDM) for operational application has beenevaluated and modified in the present study. Field measurements of friction velocity and dry deposition velocity of SO₂ andO₃ over a mixed forest have been used to evaluate RDM. It was found that RDM predicts friction velocities very close to measurements and thus it can predict reasonable aerodynamic resistance. RDM overestimated O₃ deposition during dry nighttime conditions and underestimated both O₃ andSO₂deposition for early morning hours. It could not predict the mean diurnal variation in deposition velocity for either O₃ or SO₂ deposition under wet surface conditions. Modifications have been made for O₃ and SO₂ dry deposition based on the comparison of results and based upon additional published data. Compared to an earlier version of RDM, the modified versionpredicts better results for O₃ and SO₂ dry deposition,especially under rain and dew conditions.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

Family Forest Landowners’ Interest in Forest Carbon Offset Programs: Focus Group Findings from the Lake States,USA

In 2012, focus groups were organized with individuals owning 20+ acres in the Lake States region of the United States (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to discuss various issues related to forest carbon offsetting. Focus group participants consisted of landowners who had responded to an earlier mail-back survey (2010) on forest carbon offsets. Two focus groups were held per state with an average of eight participants each (49 total). While landowner participant types varied, overall convergence was reached on several key issues. In general, discussion results found that the current payment amounts offered for carbon credits are not likely, on their own, to encourage participation in carbon markets. Landowners are most interested in other benefits they can attain through carbon management (e.g., improved stand species mix, wildlife, and trails). Interestingly, landowner perceptions about the condition of their own forest land were most indicative of prospective interest in carbon management. Landowners who felt that their forest was currently in poor condition, or did not meet their forest ownership objectives, were most interested in participating. While the initial survey sought landowner opinions about carbon markets, a majority of focus group participants expressed interest in general carbon management as a means to achieve reduced property taxes.     

Facilitating disaster preparedness through local radio broadcasting

The 2008 Disaster Mitigation Preparedness (DMP) study took place in Aceh province, Indonesia. It sought to help develop radio programmes and messages to increase resilience to disasters. The role of radio was evaluated during and after the 2004 Asian tsunami disaster. The study team interviewed 984 tsunami survivors from nine sub-districts of Banda Aceh, and local nongovernmental organisations convened eight focus groups around the area of Aceh Besar. Six key informant interviews were held with government disaster management agencies. The DMP survey is the first of its kind to interview a representative random sample of Banda Aceh residents. It reveals the importance of community and social networks, during disaster situations, when essential communications are down. A disaster warning information system based on a multi-media approach needs to be developed. The wider community should be involved in the planning, education and training of Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar residents to facilitate appropriate personal and community survival strategies.