Risk measures constituting a risk metrics which enables improved decision making: Value-at-Risk

In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars.     

Tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) movement patterns and habitat use determined by satellite tagging in eastern Australian waters

Partial migration is considered ubiquitous among vertebrates, but little is known about the movements of oceanodromous apex predators such as sharks, particularly at their range extents. PAT-Mk10 and SPOT5 electronic tags were used to investigate tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) spatial dynamics, site fidelity and habitat use off eastern Australia between April 2007 and May 2013. Of the 18 tags deployed, 15 recorded information on depth and/or temperature, and horizontal movements. Tracking times ranged between four and 408 days, with two recovered pop-up archival tags allowing 63 days of high-resolution archived data to be analysed. Overall mean proportions of time-at-depth revealed that G. cuvier spent the majority of time-at-depths of <20 m, but undertook dives as deep as 920 m. Tagged sharks occupied ambient water temperatures from 29.5 °C at the surface to 5.9 °C at depth. Deep dives (>500 m) occurred mostly around dawn and dusk, but no definitive daily dive patterns were observed. Horizontal movements were characterised by combinations of resident and transient behaviour that coincided with seasonal changes in water temperature. While the majority of movement activity was focused around continental slope waters, large-scale migration was evident with one individual moving from offshore Sydney, Australia, to New Caledonia (c. 1,800 km) in 48 days. Periods of tiger shark residency outside of Australia’s fisheries management zones highlight the potential vulnerability of the species to unregulated fisheries and the importance of cross-jurisdictional arrangements for species’ management and conservation.     

水体中磺胺甲恶唑和甲氧苄氨嘧啶的自然光降解

实验研究了磺胺甲恶唑和甲氧苄氨嘧啶连续暴露于自然光下72 h,在pH值为4.0、7.0、9.0水体中的光降解行为,同时考察了黑暗条件下对照样品在不同pH条件下的稳定性.实验表明,光强、光照时间、水体pH都直接影响到磺胺甲恶唑的去除率.在自然光照环境下,不同pH溶液中的磺胺甲恶唑均易发生光降解,而黑暗对照样品去除率较小.甲氧苄氨嘧啶则比较稳定,几乎未发生降解,但黑暗对照样品在pH值为4.0和7.0的溶液中,与起始浓度相比,去除率大于10%,这可能主要与该药物在不同pH溶液中的离子形态及光照过程中的温度波动有关.     

Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research applications

Understanding and being able to predict forest fire occurrence, fire growth and fire intensity are important aspects of forest fire management. In Canada fire management agencies use the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) to help predict these elements of forest fire activity. In this paper a review of the CFFDRS is presented with the main focus on understanding and interpreting Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System outputs. The need to interpret the outputs of the FWI System with consideration to regional differences is emphasized and examples are shown of how the relationship between actual fuel moisture and the FWI System’s moisture codes vary from region to region. Examples are then shown of the relationship between fuel moisture and fire occurrence for both human- and lightning-caused fire for regions with different forest composition. The relationship between rate of spread, fuel consumption and the relative fire behaviour indices of the FWI System for different forest types is also discussed. The outputs of the CFFDRS are used every day across Canada by fire managers in every district, regional and provincial fire management office. The purpose of this review is to provide modellers with an understanding of this system and how its outputs can be interpreted. It is hoped that this review will expose statistical modellers and other researchers to some of the models used currently in forest fire management and encourage further research and development of models useful for understanding and managing forest fire activity.

Prediction of extinction in plants: interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits

The global extinction of species proceeds through the erosion of local populations. Using a 60-year time series of annual sighting records of plant species, we studied the correlates of local extinction risk associated with a risk of species extinction in the Park Grass Experiment where plants received long-term exposure to nutrient enrichment, soil acidification, and reductions in habitat size. We used multivariate linear models to assess how extrinsic threats and life history traits influence extinction risk. We investigated effects of four extrinsic threats (nitrogen enrichment, productivity, acidification, and plot size) as well as 11 life history traits (month of earliest flowering, flowering duration, stress tolerance, ruderalness [plant species' ability to cope with habitat disturbance], plant height, diaspore mass, seed bank, life form, dispersal mode, apomixis [the ability for a species to reproduce asexuall through seeds], and mating system). Extinction risk was not influenced by plant family. All of the 11 life history traits except life form and all threat variables influenced extinction risk but always via interactions which typically involved one threat variable and one life history trait. We detected comparatively few significant interactions between life history traits, and the interacting traits compensated for each other. These results suggest that simple predictions about extinction risk based on species' traits alone will often fail. In contrast, understanding the interactions between extrinsic threats and life history traits will allow us to make more accurate predictions of extinctions.     

Crystallization behavior of predominantly syndiotactic poly(β-hydroxybutyrate)

Predominantly syndiotactic poly(-hydroxybutyrate), syn-PHB, of variable syndioregularity (syndyad fractions 0.59, 0.62, 0.64, and 0.71) and molecular weight was prepared by the dibutyltin dimethoxide catalyzed ring opening of racemic-butyrolactone (BL). The crystallization behavior of the syn-PHB polymers was investigated by DSC and X-ray diffraction analyses. DSC of films after melting and annealing showed at least one, and often two distinct melting transitions occuring over a broad (often 40°C) temperature range. These results indicate that syn-PHB chain segments of variable syndioregularity form crystalline regions with very different thermodynamic stabilities. Maximum degrees of crystallinity for melt annealed 0.64- and 0.71-syn-PHB was observed at an annealing temperature (T _c ) of 30°C. AtT _c values at 45°C and higher, crystallization of relatively lower syndioregular chain segments was apparently excluded to variable degrees dependent onT _c and sample syndiotactic dyad content. After crystallization of syn-PHB samples at elevated temperatures, ambient temperature annealing resulted in an observed lower temperature melting transition at 50°C. This result showed little to no dependence on syn-PHB syndio-regularity andT _c . Both solution precipitated 0.62-syn-PHB and 0.71-syn-PHB have WAXS patterns with poorly resolved crystalline reflections superimposed on amorphous haloes indicating low levels of crystallinity (17% and 25%, respectively) and poorly formed crystals. Isothermal crystallization monitored by DSC showed that the syn- and natural origin PHB showed fastest crystallization rates at temperatures between 50°C and 70°C and 60°C and 90°C, respectively. From the dependence of the higher melting transition onT _c it was determined that the equilibrium melting temperatures for 0.62-syn-PHB (M _n =83,700 g/mol) and a 0.64-syn-PHB (M _n =11,900 g/mol) were 157 and 154°C, respectively. An Avrami analysis of syn-PHB yielded results similar to that found for natural origin PHB indicating that crystal growth occurs by a two-dimensional mechanism.Guest Editor: Dr. Graham Swift, Rohm & Haas.     

A simple procedure to harmonize class boundaries of assessment systems at the pan-European scale

A procedure for a large scale harmonization of assessment systems is delineated. The data collected for the two E.U. co-funded projects STAR and AQEM have been used as a benchmark dataset against which a test dataset derived from Italian standard monitoring programs was compared. A central step in the procedure adopted is the calculation of Intercalibration Common Metrics (STAR_ICMs). For both the benchmark and test datasets, six metrics were calculated, normalized and averaged to obtain an ICM index. The median values obtained for this index within each of the High and Good status classes, as defined within the STAR/AQEM dataset, were compared to the classes defined by the National method applied in Italy before WFD approval. The process of harmonization involved the re-positioning of the boundaries between Italian method quality classes until no more differences were found with the values observed in the STAR/AQEM samples. The re-setting of the Italian assessment boundaries by a step-by-step procedure lead to comparable STAR_ICM index values in the two datasets. Within this example, small refinements of the boundaries between high/good and good/moderate status were sufficient to harmonize the Italian assessment quality classes to the benchmark classification. Once a benchmark dataset is agreed among different countries, the procedure outlined can be easily applied to compare and harmonize assessment systems within and outside Europe. The main scientific and practical advantages of the procedure are listed and commented, especially facing the next steps of the Water Framework Directive Intercalibration process.