PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Effects of Changing Forest and Impervious Land Covers on Discharge Characteristics of Watersheds

Effects of changing patterns of forest and impervious land covers on hydrologic regimes of watersheds were evaluated for urban and rural areas of the lower Cedar River drainage near Seattle, Washington. Land cover characterizations were used in a spatially explicit hydrology model to assess effects of land covers on watershed hydrology during presettlement conditions (full forest cover), 1991 and 1998. For the presettlement to 1991 period, urban watersheds showed decreases in forest covers (range 63% to 83%) and increases in impervious surfaces (range 43% to 71%). Rural watersheds showed similar patterns but smaller changes, with forest covers decreasing (range 28% to 34%) and impervious surfaces increasing (range 8% to 15%). For the 1991 and 1998 period, changes in forest covers for urban and rural watershed were <24%, with losses in some watersheds and regeneration in others. Impervious surfaces continued to increase, but increases were larger in rural (range 38% to 60%) than in urban watersheds (range 4% to 27%). Flood-frequency curves indicated that discharge rates (m sec^–1) for all watersheds were higher in 1991 and 1998 than historical and suggested that chances for floods increase because of changing land covers. The largest increases in discharge rates were in urban watersheds, with rates for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals being more than two times greater than the rate during historical conditions. Changes in flow regimes were indicated by presettlement discharge levels of less frequent recurrence intervals (10-year and 25-year) occurring in posturbanization times (1991 and 1998) during more frequent intervals (2-year and 10-year). Normalized flows (m yr^–1) of watersheds for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals indicate how flow regimes in 1991 and 1998 can change as functions of different areas of land covers. During 1991 and 1998, abrupt increases in flows occurred when forest covers were low (range 17% to 37%) and impervious surfaces were >46%. In contrast, the lowest flows occurred when forest covers were most extensive (range 59% to 81%) and impervious surfaces were <23%. We conclude that our use of spatial characterizations of impervious surfaces and forested covers in a spatially explicit hydrology model provides a robust approach for revealing how variations in different types and spatial distributions of land covers can affect flood regimes and flows of different watersheds.     

A pragmatic approach for estimation of source-zone emissions at LNAPL contaminated sites

When considering natural attenuation as a remediation strategy at a site contaminated by a light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL), it is important to consider the emission of contaminants from the source zone. A quantification of source-zone emissions is essential both for comparison with down-gradient mass fluxes to provide an estimate of fractional mass flux reduction, as well as for estimating the source lifetime. Because the spatial distribution of LNAPL at a field site is strongly dependent on both the spill circumstances and the heterogeneity of the geologic materials, which can be problematic for in-situ determination, alternative methods for estimating source-zone emissions are needed. In this work, a three-dimensional multiphase flow and transport modelling approach is used to investigate the relationship between the lateral extent of an LNAPL body and the emission of contaminants to groundwater at a contaminated site. For simulations involving an LNAPL release in an aquifer comprised of heterogeneous porosity and permeability distributions that were generated geostatistically, it is shown that a simple linear relationship exists between the lateral extent of the LNAPL body in the capillary fringe and the emission to the aqueous phase. The parameters describing the relationship are found to be linear functions of the groundwater flow velocity and the vertical infiltration rate. This site-specific relationship provides a simple method to estimate contaminant emissions to groundwater at LNAPL contaminated sites.     

Characterization of DNAPL from the U.S. DOE Savannah River Site

The composition of chlorinated hydrocarbon DNAPLs (dense non-aqueous phase liquids) from field sites can be substantially different than the material originally purchased for use as a solvent. Waste management practices at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) included co-disposal of a wide range of organic and inorganic wastes. In 1991, a clear, orange-colored DNAPL was found in two wells near the SRS M-area settling basin. Waste effluent from the fuel and target fabrication facilities that were discharged to this settling basin included acids, caustics, metals and chlorinated solvents. The characterization of the SRS DNAPL suggests that numerous constituents partitioned into the DNAPL during its use as a solvent, co-disposal and ultimate migration through the subsurface. Trace constituents in the DNAPL include metals, from processing operations or co-disposal practices and subsurface minerals, high molecular weight hydrocarbons and alkyl esters, and acids. This complex mixture results in DNAPL-water interfacial properties that are substantially different than would be expected from a simple mixture of PCE and TCE. Under conditions when there is a high DNAPL to water volume ratio, a semi-rigid film accumulates on water droplets suspended in the DNAPL. It is concluded that the array of precipitated metal species comprising this film contributes to the interfacial tension that is over an order of magnitude lower than expected for a "clean" PCE/TCE mixture.     

Spatial Pattern Analysis of Cruise Ship–Humpback Whale Interactions in and Near Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

Understanding interactions between large ships and large whales is important to estimate risks posed to whales by ships. The coastal waters of Alaska are a summer feeding area for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) as well as a prominent destination for large cruise ships. Lethal collisions between cruise ships and humpback whales have occurred throughout Alaska, including in Glacier Bay National Park (GBNP). Although the National Park Service (NPS) establishes quotas and operating requirements for cruise ships within GBNP in part to minimize ship–whale collisions, no study has quantified ship–whale interactions in the park or in state waters where ship traffic is unregulated. In 2008 and 2009, an observer was placed on ships during 49 different cruises that included entry into GBNP to record distance and bearing of whales that surfaced within 1 km of the ship’s bow. A relative coordinate system was developed in ArcGIS to model the frequency of whale surface events using kernel density. A total of 514 whale surface events were recorded. Although ship–whale interactions were common within GBNP, whales frequently surfaced in front of the bow in waters immediately adjacent to the park (west Icy Strait) where cruise ship traffic is not regulated by the NPS. When ships transited at speeds >13 knots, whales frequently surfaced closer to the ship’s midline and ship’s bow in contrast to speeds slower than 13 knots. Our findings confirm that ship speed is an effective mitigation measure for protecting whales and should be applied to other areas where ship–whale interactions are common.     

Relative Phytoplankton growth responses to physically and chemically dispersed South Louisiana sweet crude oil

We conducted controlled laboratory exposure experiments to assess the toxic effects of water-accommodated fractions (WAFs) of South Louisiana sweet crude oil on five phytoplankton species isolated from the Gulf of Mexico. Experiments were conducted with individual and combinations of the five phytoplankton species to determine growth inhibitions to eight total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) equivalent concentrations ranging from 461 to 7,205 ppb. The composition and concentration of crude oil were altered by physical and chemical processes and used to help evaluate crude oil toxicity. The impact of crude oil exposure on phytoplankton growth varied with the concentration of crude oil, species of microalgae, and their community composition. At a concentration of TPH <?1,200 ppb, dinoflagellate species showed significantly better tolerance, while diatom species showed a higher tolerance to crude oil at higher concentrations of TPH. For both groups, the larger species were more tolerant to crude oil than smaller ones. The toxicity potential of crude oil seems to be strongly influenced by the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The addition of the dispersant, Corexit® EC9500A, increased the amount of crude oil up to 50-fold in the water column, while the physical enhancement (vigorous mixing of water column) did not significantly increase the amount of TPH concentration in the water column. The species response to crude oil was also examined in the five-species community. Each phytoplankton species showed considerably less tolerance to crude oil in the five-species community compared to their individual responses. This study provides baseline information about individual phytoplankton responses to crude oil and dispersed crude oil for subsequent research efforts seeking to understand the impacts of oil on the phytoplankton in the bigger picture.