ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF NRCS MODELS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: In the last 30 years, the National Resource Conservation Service's TR‐55 and TR‐20 models have seen a dramatic increase in use for stormwater management purposes. This paper reviews some of the data that were originally used to develop these models and tests how well the models estimate annual series peak runoff rates for the same watersheds using longer historical data record lengths. The paper also explores differences between TR‐55 and TR‐20 peak runoff rate estimates and time of concentration methods. It was found that of the 37 watersheds tested, 25 were either over‐ or under‐predicting the actual historical watershed runoff rates by more than 30 percent. The results of this study indicate that these NRCS models should not be used to model small wooded watersheds less than 20 acres. This would be especially true if the watershed consisted of an area without a clearly defined outlet channel. This study also supports the need for regulators to allow educated hydrologists to alter pre‐packaged model parameters or results more easily than is currently permitted.     

Full‐scale in‐situ biobarrier demonstration for containment and treatment of MTBE

The Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center (NFESC), Arizona State University, and Equilon Enterprises LLC are partners in an innovative Environmental Security Technology Certification Program cleanup technology demonstration designed to contain dissolved MTBE groundwater plumes. This full‐scale demonstration is being performed to test the use of an oxygenated biobarrier at Naval Base Ventura County, in Port Hueneme, California. Surprisingly, few cost‐effective in‐situ remedies are known for the cleanup of MTBE‐impacted aquifers, and remediation by engineered in‐situ biodegradation was thought to be an unlikely candidate just a few years ago. This project demonstrates that MTBE‐impacted groundwater can be remediated in‐situ through engineered aerobic biodegradation under natural‐flow conditions. With respect to economics, the installation and operation costs associated with this innovative biobarrier system are at least 50 percent lower than those of a conventional pump and treat system. Furthermore, although it has been suggested that aerobic MTBE biodegradation will not occur in mixed MTBE‐BTEX dissolved plumes, this project demonstrates otherwise. The biobarrier system discussed in this article is the largest of its kind ever implemented, spanning a dissolved MTBE plume that is over 500 feet wide. This biobarrier system has achieved an in‐situ treatment efficiency of greater than 99.9 percent for dissolved MTBE and BTEX concentrations. Perhaps of greater importance is the fact that extensive performance data has been collected, which is being used to generate best‐practice design and cost information for this biobarrier technology. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Habitat and landscape characteristics underlying anuran community structure along an urban-rural gradient

Urbanization has been cited as an important factor in worldwide amphibian declines, and although recent work has illustrated the important influence of broad-scale ecological patterns and processes on amphibian populations, little is known about the factors structuring amphibian communities in urban landscapes. We therefore examined amphibian community responses to wetland habitat availability and landscape characteristics along an urban-rural gradient in central Iowa, USA, a region experiencing rapid suburban growth. We conducted call surveys at 61 wetlands to estimate anuran calling activity, and quantified wetland habitat structure and landscape context. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to examine patterns in anuran community structure and identify the most important variables associated with those patterns. Urban density at the landscape scale had a significant negative influence on overall anuran abundance and diversity. While every species exhibited a decrease in abundance with increasing urban density, this pattern was especially pronounced for species requiring post-breeding upland habitats. Anurans most affected by urbanization were those associated with short hydroperiods, early breeding activity, and substantial upland habitat use. We suggest that broad-scale landscape fragmentation is an important factor underlying anuran community structure in this region, possibly due to limitations on the accessibility of otherwise suitable habitat in fragmented urban landscapes. This study underscores the importance of a regional approach to amphibian conservation in urban and urbanizing areas; in fragmented landscapes, a network of interconnected wetland and upland habitats may be more likely to support a successful, diverse anuran community than will isolated sites.     

New hypothesis helps explain elasmobranch "outburst" on Georges Bank in the 1980s.

Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.     

An ecological framework for contextualizing carnivore–livestock conflict

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict. Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator–prey systems.     

LAKE EVAPORATION STUDIES USING SATELLITE THERMAL INFRARED DATA1

Thermal infrared radiation data were acquired by the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission (HCMM) satellite over the surface area (385 km²) of Utah Lake during periodic overpasses in 1978 and 1979. The thermal infrared data were converted to lake surface temperatures which were subsequently used in correlations with lake evaporation. Correlations between HCMM surface temperature and pan-derived evaporation exceeded r = 0.90 when HCMM night and day/night average temperatures and two-day average evaporation values were tested. Similar regression studies were done using monthly data from a conceptual evaporation model and the evaporation pan versus monthly HCMM temperature data. In this test both the HCMM day and night monthly temperature versus the monthly model or pan evaporation had correlations exceeding r = 0.95. Empirical estimates of both short and long term lake evaporation using satellite thermal infrared data seem feasible. Attempts to use the HCMM thermal information as direct input to a theoretical approach to calculating evaporation were inconclusive; however, a definite potential seems to exist.     

Unraveling the mysteries of gender differences in intentions to leave the organization

The anticipated labor shortages of the 1990's will intensify organizational needs to retain their existing employees. Women represent an increasingly important segment of the labor force and their turnover rates are thought to exceed men's. Earlier studies of turnover and its psychological antecedent, the behavioral intention to leave, suggest that work-related factors may contribute to women's relatively higher turnover rates. The current paper reports the results of a study of the intentions of male and female executives, managers and professionals to leave their organizations. The results support the pattern of findings in earlier studies that gender differences disappear when job satisfaction is controlled in the analysis. Further analysis highlights the importance of two components of job satisfaction — meaningful work and opportunities for promotion. The authors conclude that organizations might improve their retention rates of female managers through job enrichment and by enhancing their advancement opportunities.     

INFILTRATION EVALUATION OF FOUR MECHANICAL RAINFALL SIMULATION TECHNIQUES IN SIERRA NEVADA WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Little quantitative site-specific infiltration, runoff and sediment transport data for Tahoe Basin soils under varying storm events or stage of development are available. Modular (Ml), F-type (M2), Impact nozzle (M3), and Impact-Fan nozzle (M4) rainfall simulators were evaluated as to their practicality and ability to characterize infiltration for the Cagwin Soil Series within the Tahoe Basin. Three slope (0–15,15–30, >30%) and four plot conditions (natural with duff [P1], natural without duff [P2], disturbed without duff [P3], and disturbed with duff [P4]) were studied. The measured data were incorporated into a modified Philip's infiltration model and multiple non-linear regression analyses were used to examine relationships between method, slope, plot condition, and infiltration characteristics.^t Simulation methods Ml and M4 produced statistically similar (P=0.01) infiltration data, as did M2 and M3 which produced lower infiltration rates. All were found suitable for use in Sierra Nevada watersheds. Ml was considered most practical. Slope had negligible effect on infiltration. The plot condition was found to significantly influence infiltration, and the effect of each plot condition was significantly different. Final infiltration rates ranged from 4.7 to 6.2 cm/hr. Thus, the Cagwin soil demonstrated moderate to high infiltration rates even when exposed to extreme storm conditions (8–10 cm/hr).