Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.     

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

Considerations for preserve design based on the distribution of rare plants in Great Smoky Mountains National Park,USA

Park design principles are proposed on the basis of consideration and analysis of rare plant species in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA. Rare species richness can be used as a simple measure of preservation success. A semilogartihmic species-area model for the Smokies was used in this analysis. Species richness would increase logarathmically with expansion of the national park area. An analysis of the relationship between species richness and the distribution of geologic and topographic features in the national park was also reported. An asymptotic relation was documented for the accumulation of newly recorded rare and endangered vascular plant species in the Smokies region up to 1978. Several multiple regression linear models predicted rare vascular plant species richness in Great Smoky Mountains National Park from area and topographic variates.Preserve design criteria can be based upon species-area, environmental gradient, and natural features distribution patterns for the specific taxa and biogeographic region under consideration. In addition, natural history characteristics for particular vulnerable species must be assessed. Rather than concentrating on the preservation of undocumented immigration and extinction processes, preserve design should be directed towards protecting geographic components and gradient patterns characteristic of a region.     

Ergonomic Program Effectiveness: Ergonomic and Medical Intervention

The implementation of a successful ergonomic and medical intervention program designed to reduce the number and severity of injuries and illnesses and the associated levels of discomfort in the workplace is presented. Because of the recent activity concerning the on-again-off-again Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Ergonomic Program Standard questions have been raised as to the value and effectiveness of an organization’s ergonomics program. In light of these concerns, the immense cost associated with work-related injury and illness, and the related pain and suffering associated with such injuries and illnesses, it is important to present a workable and effective ergonomic and medical intervention program. The results of this applied study demonstrate that through the application of an ergonomic and medical intervention program, workplace-related injuries and illnesses can be reduced or eliminated.     

Phosphorus and nitrogen in runoff after phosphorus- or nitrogen-based manure applications

Application of beef cattle () manure based on nitrogen (N) requirements of crops has resulted in elevated concentrations of soil test phosphorus (P) in surface soils, and runoff from this cropland can contribute to eutrophication of surface waters. We conducted a 3-yr field study (2005-2007) on a Lethbridge loam soil cropped to dryland barley () in southern Alberta, Canada to evaluate the effect of annual and triennial P-based and annual N-based feedlot manure on P and N in runoff. The manure was spring applied and incorporated. There was one unamended control plot. A portable rainfall simulator was used to generate runoff in the spring of each year after recent manure incorporation, and the runoff was analyzed for total P, total dissolved P, total particulate P, dissolved reactive P, total N, total dissolved N, total particulate N, NO-N, and NH-N. Annual or triennial P-based application resulted in significantly ( ≤ 0.05) lower (by 50 to 94%) concentrations or loads of mainly dissolved P fractions in runoff for some years compared with annual N-based application, and this was related to lower rates of annual manure P applied. For example, mean dissolved reactive P concentrations in 2006 and 2007 were significantly lower for the annual P-based (0.12-0.20 mg L) than for the annual N-based application (0.24-0.48 mg L), and mean values were significantly lower for the triennial P-based (0.06-0.13 mg L) than for the annual N-based application. In contrast, other P fractions in runoff were unaffected by annual P-based application. Our findings suggested no environmental benefit of annual P-based application over triennial P-based application with respect to P and N in runoff. Similar concentrations and loads of N fractions in runoff for the P- and N-based applications indicated that shifting to a P-based application would not significantly influence N in runoff.     

Spatio-temporal trends of PCBs in the Swedish freshwater environment 1981–2012

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been monitored in perch (Perca fluviatilis), pike (Esox lucius), and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in reference lakes since the late 1960s. Temporal trends and spatial patterns are currently monitored in nine and 32 lakes, respectively. Overall, PCB concentrations are decreasing. However, this is not consistent for all congeners across all lakes and species. Perch has comparatively low PCB concentrations relative to suggested target levels, but individual congener concentrations in some lakes are concerningly high. No temporal trend is seen for CB-118 and CB-153 in perch, but significant decreasing trends exist for Arctic char and pike, for which monitoring started earlier than for perch. The lower/higher chlorinated congener ratio decreased over time in most lakes, indicating fewer new emissions. CB-118 and CB-153 concentrations in perch show spatial gradients across Sweden, with higher concentrations found near urban/industrial areas.     

Cattle feedlot soil moisture and manure content: I. Impacts on greenhouse gases, odor compounds, nitrogen losses, and dust

Beef cattle feedlots face serious environmental challenges associated with manure management, including greenhouse gas, odor, NH3, and dust emissions. Conditions affecting emissions are poorly characterized, but likely relate to the variability of feedlot surface moisture and manure contents, which affect microbial processes. Odor compounds, greenhouse gases, nitrogen losses, and dust potential were monitored at six moisture contents (0.11, 0.25, 0.43, 0.67, 1.00, and 1.50 g H2O g(-1) dry matter [DM]) in three artificial feedlot soil mixtures containing 50, 250, and 750 g manure kg(-1) total (manure + soil) DM over a two-week period. Moisture addition produced three microbial metabolisms: inactive, aerobic, and fermentative at low, moderate, and high moisture, respectively. Manure content acted to modulate the effect of moisture and enhanced some microbial processes. Greenhouse gas (CO2, N2O, and CH4) emissions were dynamic at moderate to high moisture. Malodorous volatile fatty acid (VFA) compounds did not accumulate in any treatments, but their persistence and volatility varied depending on pH and aerobic metabolism. Starch was the dominant substrate fueling both aerobic and fermentative metabolism. Nitrogen losses were observed in all metabolically active treatments; however, there was evidence for limited microbial nitrogen uptake. Finally, potential dust production was observed below defined moisture thresholds, which were related to manure content of the soil. Managing feedlot surface moisture within a narrow moisture range (0.2-0.4 g H2O g(-1) DM) and minimizing the accumulation of manure produced the optimum conditions that minimized the environmental impact from cattle feedlot production.     

Full‐scale in‐situ biobarrier demonstration for containment and treatment of MTBE

The Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center (NFESC), Arizona State University, and Equilon Enterprises LLC are partners in an innovative Environmental Security Technology Certification Program cleanup technology demonstration designed to contain dissolved MTBE groundwater plumes. This full‐scale demonstration is being performed to test the use of an oxygenated biobarrier at Naval Base Ventura County, in Port Hueneme, California. Surprisingly, few cost‐effective in‐situ remedies are known for the cleanup of MTBE‐impacted aquifers, and remediation by engineered in‐situ biodegradation was thought to be an unlikely candidate just a few years ago. This project demonstrates that MTBE‐impacted groundwater can be remediated in‐situ through engineered aerobic biodegradation under natural‐flow conditions. With respect to economics, the installation and operation costs associated with this innovative biobarrier system are at least 50 percent lower than those of a conventional pump and treat system. Furthermore, although it has been suggested that aerobic MTBE biodegradation will not occur in mixed MTBE‐BTEX dissolved plumes, this project demonstrates otherwise. The biobarrier system discussed in this article is the largest of its kind ever implemented, spanning a dissolved MTBE plume that is over 500 feet wide. This biobarrier system has achieved an in‐situ treatment efficiency of greater than 99.9 percent for dissolved MTBE and BTEX concentrations. Perhaps of greater importance is the fact that extensive performance data has been collected, which is being used to generate best‐practice design and cost information for this biobarrier technology. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.