Ecological relevance of performance criteria for species distribution models

Species distribution models have often been developed based on ecological data. To develop reliable data-driven models, however, a sound model training and evaluation procedures are needed. A crucial step in these procedures is the assessment of the model performance, with as key component the applied performance criterion. Therefore, we reviewed seven performance criteria commonly applied in presence-absence modelling (the correctly classified instances, Kappa, sensitivity, specificity, the normalised mutual information statistic, the true skill statistic and the odds ratio) and analysed their application in both the model training and evaluation process. Although estimates of predictive performance have been used widely to assess final model quality, a systematic overview was missing because most analyses of performance criteria have been empirical and only focused on specific aspects of the performance criteria. This paper provides such an overview showing that different performance criteria evaluate a model differently and that this difference may be explained by the dependency of these criteria on the prevalence of the validation set. We showed theoretically that these prevalence effects only occur if the data are inseparable by an n-dimensional hyperplane, n being the number of input variables. Given this inseparability, different performance criteria focus on different aspects of model performance during model training, such as sensitivity, specificity or predictive accuracy. These findings have important consequences for ecological modelling because ecological data are mostly inseparable due to data noise and the complexity of the studied system. Consequently, it should be very clear which aspect of the model performance is evaluated, and models should be evaluated consistently, that is, independent of, or taking into account, species prevalence. The practical implications of these findings are clear. They provide further insight into the evaluation of ecological presence/absence models and attempt to assist modellers in their choice of suitable performance criteria.     

Manipulation of density and viscosity for the optimization of DNAPL recovery by alcohol flooding

Laboratory experiments demonstrate that in situ recovery of pooled tetrachloroethene (PCE) from porous media may be accomplished more efficiently using multiple-step alcohol floods than with single alcohol floods. To optimize flooding efficiency while maintaining a low risk of downward DNAPL mobilization, a three-step flooding process is developed employing an isobutanol preflood, a composite alcohol mainflood, and a polymer solution postflood. The density and viscosity of these solutions are manipulated to prevent the onset and propagation of viscous and gravitational fingers, while maintaining phase behavior critical for efficient miscible NAPL displacement. An aqueous partitioning preflood solution of 10% by volume (10% v) isobutanol reduces the NAPL density in situ to approximately 1.00 g/ml by swelling the NAPL prior to miscible displacement induced by the mainflood. The composite alcohol mainflood, containing 65% v ethylene glycol and 35% v 1-propanol maintains miscibility while achieving neutral buoyancy and near stable displacement of the NAPL. Aqueous solutions of xanthan gum polymer efficiently displace the mainflood, reducing viscous fingering associated with waterfloods. Two-dimensional experiments using the multiple-step technique achieve 99.8% DNAPL mass recovery using a total of 0.45 pore volumes of alcohol, illustrating greater recovery efficiency than previous alcohol flooding formulations under comparable conditions.     

A Method for Improving the Management of Controversial Wetland

Valley bottom wetlands in agricultural landscapes often are neglected in national and regional wetland inventories. Although these areas are small, located in the bottomlands of the headwater catchments, and scattered in the rural landscape, they strongly influence hydrology, water quality, and biodiversity over the whole catchment area. Valley bottom wetlands often are considered as controversial wetlands. Awareness of the functional role of wetlands is increasing, in parallel with their progressive disappearance in intensive farming landscapes. The need to improve tools for controlling wetland management is a primary consideration for decision makers and land users. This article proposes a method for the inventory of valley bottom wetlands. The method is based on the functional analysis of potential, existing, and efficient valley bottom wetlands (the PEEW approach). Several indicators are proposed for checking the validity of such an approach. Potential wetlands are delineated by means of a topographic index using topographic and pedoclimatic criteria computed from a Digital Elevation Model and easily accessible databases. Existing wetlands are identified from observed surface moisture, the presence of specific wetland vegetation, or soil feature criteria. Efficient wetlands are defined through a given function, such as flow or pollutant regulation or biodiversity control. An analysis of areas at the limits between potential, existing, and efficient wetlands highlights land cultivated or drained in the past, which currently represents negotiating areas in which rehabilitation and other intended management actions can be implemented.     

Monitoring of firefighters exposure to smoke during fire experiments in Portugal

Forest fires represent a serious threat to public security in Europe due to the large burned area. Moreover, smoke pollution due to forest fire events is an important public health issue for the communities directly affected, and particularly for the personnel involved in firefighting operations. Aiming to contribute to the scientific knowledge concerning firefighters exposure to forest fires smoke, data of individual exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter were obtained during experimental field fires for a group of 10 firefighters equipped with portable “in continuum” measuring devices. Measured values are very high exceeding the Occupational Exposure Standard limits, in particular for peak limit thresholds. These are the first measurements and analysis of firefighter's individual exposure to toxic gases and particles in fire smoke experiments in Europe. However, they already indicate that urgent measures to avoid these levels of exposure are needed.     

Atmospheric heavy metal deposition in Northern Vietnam: Hanoi and Thainguyen case study using the moss biomonitoring technique,INAA and AAS

Background, aim, and scope  

The moss technique is widely used to monitor atmospheric deposition of heavy metals in many countries in Europe, whereas this technique is scarcely used in Asia. To implement this international reliable and cheap methodology in the Asian countries, it is necessary to find proper moss types typical for the Asian environment and suitable for the biomonitoring purposes. Such a case study was undertaken in Vietnam for assessing the environmental situation in strongly contaminated areas using local species of moss Barbula indica.     

Influences of Spatial Scale and Soil Permeability on Relationships Between Land Cover and Baseflow Stream Nutrient Concentrations

The Little Miami River (LMR) basin, dominated by agriculture, contains two geologically-distinct regions; a glaciated northern till plain with soils three times more permeable than a southern, pre-Wisconsinan drift plain. The influences of two landscape measures, percent row crop cover (%RCC, computed at three spatial scales), and soil permeability (PERM), on baseflow nutrient concentrations were modeled using linear regressions. Quarterly water samples collected for four years were analyzed for nitrate-N (NN), Kjeldahl-N (KN), total-N (TN), and total-P (TP). In till plain streams (n = 17), NN concentrations were 8.5-times greater than drift plain streams (n = 18), but KN and TP were 20–40% lower at comparable %RCC. These differences resulted in TN/TP molar ratios >80 in till plain streams, but <6 in drift plain streams. For till plain steams regression models based on %RCC accounted for 79% of the variance in NN concentrations but only 27% in drift plain streams. However, regressions on %RCC accounted for 68–75% of the KN and TP concentration variance in the drift plain streams but essentially none in the till plain. Catchment PERM influenced the regional NN/KN ratios which were 10-fold higher in the drift plain streams. For both till and drift streams the catchment scale %RCC gave the best predictions of NN, a water soluble anion, but the smaller spatial scales produced better models for insoluble nutrient species (e.g., KN and TP). Published literature on Ohio streams indicates that these inter-regional differences in nutrient ratios have potential implications for aquatic biota in the receiving streams.     

Climate change threats to environment in the tropical Andes: glaciers and water resources

Almost all of the world’s glaciers in the tropical latitudes are located in the Central Andes (Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia). Due to their high altitude, to the high level of radiation and to the tropical climate dynamics, they all are particularly threatened by climate change, as a result of not only warming, but also of changing variability of precipitation. Many glaciers are of crucial importance for the livelihood of the local populations and even for three capitals, Lima (Peru), La Paz (Bolivia) and Quito (Ecuador), which depend on them for water and energy supplies. This paper shows that after a period of increased flow due to the glacier melt disequilibrium, the available water resource will decrease along with the rapid shrinking of the glaciers considered as water reservoirs. The case of the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) is analyzed more in detail with the mid-term (20 years) and long-term (1–2 centuries) impact of the glacier shrinking on the local water resources. Associated risks for the population and consequences for the human activities (tourism, hydropower, agriculture and stock-breeding, large-scale irrigation) are described at each stage of the mountain range.     

The application of a simplified method to map the aerobic acetate mineralization rates at the groundwater table of the Netherlands

A simplified method is used to assess the microbial activity of subsoils and soils across a broad geographic scale. Acetate was selected because it is a major intermediate in catabolic biochemical pathways. In order to get minimal disturbance, only a small amount of tritium labelled acetate and water is added to the subsoil material. After an incubation time, the subsoil material is separated from the water by centrifugation and the formed tritium labelled water is separated from the remaining acetate by evaporation. The data of 128 locations in the Netherlands were plotted in a soil map and were also compared with the depth, dry weight, electric conductivity, pH and nitrate concentration. The peat areas consisted of limed meadows with a high groundwater level whereas the sand areas often showed deeper groundwater levels and a lower pH. The subsoils at the groundwater table of the peat areas, which are in contact with soil air, showed a higher mineralization rate compared with the surface soils in our study. In contrast, the mineralization rate of the subsoil at the groundwater table of sandy soils showed on average a factor 30 lower rate. Nevertheless, the self purification capacity of the subsoil can be vital under weather conditions where the surface soil becomes less active.