Modelling Acidification and Recovery of Swedish Lakes

The MAGIC model was calibrated to 143 lakes in Sweden, all of which are monitored in Swedish national monitoring programmes conducted by the University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU). Soil characteristics of the lake catchments were obtained from the National Survey of Forest Soils and Vegetation also carried out by SLU. Deposition data were provided by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The model successfully simulated the observed lake and soil chemistry at 133 lakes and their catchments. The fact that 85% of the lakes calibrated successfully without being treated in an individual way suggests that data gathered by the national monitoring programmes are suitable for modelling of soil and surface water recovery from acidification. The lake and soil chemistry data were then projected into the future under the deposition scenario based on emission reductions agreed in the Gothenburg protocol. Deposition of sulphur (sea salt corrected) was estimated to decrease from 1990 to 2010 by 65–73%; deposition of nitrogen was estimated to decrease by 53%. The model simulated relatively rapid improvements in lake water chemistry in response to the decline in deposition from 1990 to 2010, but the improvements levelled off once deposition stabilised at the lower value. There was a major improvement of simulated lake water charge balance acid neutralising capacity (ANC) from 1990 to 2010 in all lakes. The modelled lakes were divided into acidification sensitive and non-sensitive. The modelled sensitive lakes are representative of 20% of the most sensitive lakes in Sweden. By 2010, the ANC in the sensitive lakes was 10 to 50 μeq L^-1 below estimated pre-industrial levels and did not increase much further from 2010 to 2040. Soils at the majority of the modelled catchments continued to lose base cations even after the simulated decline in acid deposition was complete, i.e. after the year 2010. Based on this model prediction, the acidification of the Swedish soils will in general not be reversed by the deposition reduction experienced over the last 10 years and expected to occur by the year 2010.     

Use of an Area Index to Retrospectively Analyze the Elimination of Fox Rabies in European Countries

Oral vaccination of foxes (OVF) is a powerful tool to combat rabies in wildlife, and large parts of western Europe have been freed from rabies using this tool. Nevertheless, the success of OVF, given with the number of campaigns needed to eliminate the disease, depends on many factors. This article for the first time focuses on and assesses difference in OVF with respect to the spatial setting of vaccinated areas with time. The size of the areas vaccinated with time and the size of the overlapping area of consecutively vaccinated areas are particularly considered. In order to integrate these two aspects into one single figure, an Area Index is proposed ranging between 0 and 1. A statistical analysis indicates that the number of campaigns needed for rabies elimination significantly decreases on condition that the total rabies endemic area is consecutively treated right from the beginning of oral vaccination. Hence, from an economical and environmental point of view, vaccination areas should be selected the way that guarantees an Area Index close to 1. The concept of an Area Index, as described here, is a useful tool not only in the context of OVF, but it could also be used for other control schemes against infectious diseases in wildlife.     

Assessment of herbicide leaching risk in two tropical soils of Reunion Island (France)

Application of organic chemicals to a newly irrigated sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) area located in the semiarid western part of Reunion Island has prompted local regulatory agencies to determine their potential to contaminate ground water resources. For that purpose, simple indices known as the ground water ubiquity score (Gustafson index, GUS), the retardation factor (RF), the attenuation factor (AF), and the log-transformed attenuation factor (AFT) were employed to assess the potential leaching of five herbicides in two soil types. The herbicides were alachlor [2-chloro-2',6'-diethyl-N-(methoxy-methy) acetanilide], atrazine [2-chloro-4-(ethylamino)-6-(isopropylamino)-1,3,5-triazine], diuron [3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea], 2,4-D [(2,4-dichlorophenoxy) acetic-acid], and triclopyr [((3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridyl)oxy) acetic-acid]. The soil types were Vertic (BV) and Andepts (BA) Inceptisols, which are present throughout the Saint-Gilles study area on Reunion Island. To calculate the indices, herbicide sorption (K(oc)) and dissipation (half-life, DT50) properties were determined from controlled batch experiments. Water fluxes below the root zone were estimated by a capacity-based model driven by a rainfall frequency analysis performed on a 13-yr data series. The results show a lower risk of herbicide leaching than in temperate regions due to the tropical conditions of the study area. Higher temperatures and the presence of highly adsorbent soils may explain smaller DT50 and higher K(oc) values than those reported in literature concerning temperate environments. Based on the RF values, only 2,4-D and triclopyr appear mobile in the BV soil, with all the other herbicides being classified from moderately to very immobile in both soils. The AFT values indicate that the potential leaching of the five herbicides can be considered as unlikely, except during the cyclonic period (about 40 d/yr) when there is a 2.5% probability of recharge rates equal to or higher than 50 mm/d. In that case, atrazine in both soils, 2,4-D and triclopyr in the BV soil, and diuron and alachlor in the BA soil present a high risk of potential contamination of ground water resources.     

MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF WATER QUALITY IN THE RICHIBUCTO DRAINAGE BASIN (NEW BRUNSWICK,CANADA)1

ABSTRACT: Specific conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, carbon, phosphorous, and nitrogen species were measured at 36 stations in the Richibucto River drainage basin, including the estuary, in New Brunswick, Canada, over the six‐year period 1996 through 2001. Each station was sampled between 1 and 26 times (mean = 7.5, standard deviation = 6.0) during the ice free seasons without regard to tide. There was significant variance among stations in most parameters. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the processes explaining the observed variance in water quality. Because of the high variability in specific conductance, stations were first grouped in a freshwater subset and an estuarine (brackish water) subset. For freshwater stations, most of the variance in water quality was explained by pH and total organic carbon, as well as high nutrient concentrations. These high nutrient concentrations, along with water salinity, which varies with flow and tides, are also important in determining water quality variability in brackish water. It is recommended that water quality parameters that were found to explain most of the variance by PCA be monitored more closely, as they are key elements in understanding the variability in water quality in the Richibucto drainage basin. Cluster analyses showed that high phosphorous and nitrate concentrations were mostly found in areas of peat runoff, tributaries receiving treated municipal effluent, and lentic zones upstream of culverts. Peat runoff was also shown to be acidic, whether it is runoff from a harvested area or a natural bog.     

Influence of Traffic Emissions Estimation Variability on Urban Air Quality Modelling

The main objective of this work is to analyse how uncertainties in emission data of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), originated from road traffic, influence the model prediction of ozone (O₃) concentration fields. Different methods to estimate emissions were applied and results were compared in order to obtain their variability. Based on these data, different emission scenarios were compiled for each pollutant considering the minimum and the maximum values of the estimated emission range. These scenarios were used as input to the MAR-IV mesoscale modelling system. Simulations have been performed for a summer day in the Northern Region of Portugal. The different approaches to estimate NO_x and VOC traffic emissions show a significant variability of absolute values and of their spatial distribution. Comparison of modelling results obtained from the two scenarios presents a dissimilarity of 37% for ozone concentration fields as a response of the system to a variation in the input emission data of 63% for NO_x and 59% for VOC. Far beyond all difficulties and approximations, the developed methodology to build up an emission data base shows to be consistent and an useful tool in order to turn applicable an air quality model. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of the model to input data should be considered when it is used as a decision support tool.     

COMPOSITE VS. DISTRIBUTED CURVE NUMBERS: EFFECTS ON ESTIMATES OF STORM RUNOFF DEPTHS1

ABSTRACT: The U.S. Department of Agriculture Curve Number (CN) method is one of the most common and widely used techniques for estimating surface runoff and has been incorporated into a number of popular hydrologic models. The CN method has traditionally been applied using compositing techniques in which the area weighted average of all curve numbers is calculated for a watershed or a small number of sub-watersheds. CN compositing was originally developed as a time saving procedure, reducing the number of runoff calculations required. However, with the proliferation of high speed computers and geographic information systems, it is now feasible to use distributed CNs when applying the CN method. To determine the effect of using composited versus distributed CNs on runoff estimates, two simulations of idealized watersheds were developed to compare runoff depths using composite and distributed CNs. The results of these simulations were compared to the results of similar analyses performed on an urbanizing watershed located in central Indiana and show that runoff depth estimates using distributed CNs are as much as 100 percent higher than when composited CNs are used. Underestimation of runoff due to CN compositing is a result of the curvilinear relationship between CN and runoff depth and is most severe for wide CN ranges, low CN values, and low precipitation depths. For larger design storms, however, the difference in runoff computed using composite and distributed CNs is minimal.     

Air Emissions Assessment from Offshore Oil Activities in Sonda de Campeche, Mexico

Air emission data from offshore oil platforms, gas and oil processing installations and contribution of marine activities at the Sonda de Campeche, located at the Gulf of Mexico, were compiled and integrated to facilitate the study of long range transport of pollutants into the region. From this important region, roughly 76% of the total Mexican oil and gas production is obtained. It was estimated that the total air emissions of all contaminants are approximately 821,000 tons per year. Hydrocarbons are the largest pollutant emissions with 277,590 tons per year, generated during flaring activities, and SOx in second place with 185,907 tons per year. Marine and aviation activities contribute with less than 2% of total emissions. Mass of pollutants emitted per barrel of petroleum produced calculated in this work, are in the range reported by similar oil companies.