The development of a method to determine the burden of climate change on different health outcomes at a local scale: a case study in Osaka Prefecture,Japan

Climate change impacts human health in a variety of ways. Variables including the climate-related risk factor, the health outcome and location all determine the nature and extent of the impact. The existence of different pathways and endpoints presents a problem for quantifying and comparing impacts. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) provides a common scale, whereby the impact of climate change on both acute and chronic health outcomes can be compared. This study presents a methodology to calculate the impact of climate change on human health at a local scale, using cardiovascular disease (CVD) and meteorological disaster-related injuries (DRIs) in Osaka Prefecture, Japan, as applied case studies. An additional very fine scale assessment of CVD conducted at the neighbourhood level to demonstrate the importance of conducting risk assessments at a local level. The comparative results calculated the impact of climate change in 2050 to be 16.866 DALY/100,000 population for CVD and 0.645 DALY/100,000 for meteorological DRIs. The actual impact of climate change by 2050 on CVD is judged to be higher, although the relative risk was projected to be lower (1.006, compared to 1.263 for meteorological DRIs). The fine scale assessment revealed the variations in the projected impact of climate change on CVD for all administrative zones in Osaka Prefecture. The range of impacts varied from 0 to 114.29 DALY/100,000. The results demonstrate the applicability of using DALY to quantify the impact of climate change on different health outcomes, using a transferable methodology, and provide information that enables evidence-based prioritisation of climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale.     

Optimizing angles of rooftop photovoltaics,ratios of solar to vegetated roof systems,and economic benefits,in Portland,Oregon, USA

This study analyzed insolation data to account for multiple scattering in calculating optimal tilt angles for stationary and seasonally moving photovoltaics on three different roof types in the US Pacific Northwest: vegetated roofs, white roofs, and dark roofs. Using these results, we modeled the energy savings for vegetated roofs and roofs covered in varying numbers of photovoltaic panels. We then calculated the net present value, internal rate of return, and other economic measures for all possible combinations of covering rooftops in mixes of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation, accounting for installation costs, proposed carbon taxes, stormwater management discounts, and other relevant factors. Our results quantify how, in the US Pacific Northwest and similar locations, photovoltaics produce higher returns on investment than do vegetated roofs for new buildings, while vegetated roofs produce better returns on investment than do photovoltaics for older buildings. This is important because in many areas, some buildings have photovoltaics when a vegetated roof would have been more cost and energy efficient, while other buildings have vegetated roofs when photovoltaics would have been more cost and energy efficient. Potential applications include modifying incentive programs and other policies to account properly for building age, use, and other relevant factors to ensure building owners make the most energy-efficient decisions between photovoltaic versus vegetated roof installation. Our research also demonstrates how positive returns on investment can be realized in the US Pacific Northwest and similar regions through vegetated roofs and photovoltaics provided they are each installed optimally.     

Larval and Juvenile Fish Assemblage Structure of Inshore Habitats in the Middle Reaches of Li River,China: Spatial and Temporal Patterns in Relation to Abiotic Factors

To evaluate the effect of abiotic factors on larval and juvenile fish assemblage in shallow waters of middle reaches of Li River, Guilin, China. Samplings were taken monthly at 7 stations in the mainstream and 2 stations in 3 tributaries from May 2014 to April 2015. Synchronously, temperature, pH, turbidity, conductivity, dissolved oxygen rainfall and discharge were obtained. In all, 11.886 larval and juvenile fish from 18 species belonging to 8 families, 16 genera was captured. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed obvious significant difference between the environmental variables across sampling areas and months. The results of Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicated that water temperature, turbidity, discharge and rainfall were dominant factors on larval and juvenile fish assemblage.     

Microsatellite data reveal fine genetic structure in male Guiana dolphins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sotalia guianesis)</Emphasis> in two geographically close embayments at south-eastern coast of Brazil

A large macrogeographic differentiation has been observed among Sotalia guianensis populations along the South American coast. However, no genetic structure has been detected so far in closely distributed populations of this species, even though it has been observed in other cetaceans. Here, we examined the fine scale population structure for the largest populations of S. guianensis inhabiting Sepetiba and Paraty embayments at the south-eastern coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences failed to detect variability among sequences. Conversely, evidence of significant male population structure was found on the basis of ten nuclear microsatellite loci. Surprisingly, the microsatellite markers were able to distinguish between individuals from the two embayments located 60 km apart. The results suggest that differences in habitat type and behavioral specializations are likely to explain the patterns of genetic structure. These findings should provide baselines for the management of communities exposed to increasing human-driven habitat loss.     

Diversity of crude oil-degrading bacteria and alkane hydroxylase (<Emphasis Type="Italic">alkB</Emphasis>) genes from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The aim of this study was to survey the response of the microbial community to crude oil and the diversity of alkane hydroxylase (alkB) genes in soil samples from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The enrichment cultures and clone libraries were used. Finally, 53 isolates and 94 alkB sequences were obtained from 10 pristine soil samples after enrichment at 10 °C with crude oil as sole carbon source. The isolates fell into the phyla Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Bacteroidetes, with the dominance of Pseudomonas and Acinetobacter. The composition of degraders was different from polar habitats where Acinetobacter sp. is not a predominant responder of alkane degradative microbial communities. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the alkB genes from isolates and enrichment communities formed eight clusters and mainly related with alkB genes of Pseudomonas, Rhodococcus, and Acinetobacter. The alkB gene diversity in the QTP was lower than marine environments and polar soil samples. In particular, a total of 10 isolates exhibiting vigorous growth with crude oil could detect no crude oil degradation-related gene sequences, such as alkB, P450, almA, ndoB, and xylE genes. The Shannon-Wiener index of the alkB clone libraries from the QTP ranged from 1.00 to 2.24 which is similar with polar pristine soil samples but lower than that of contaminated soils. These results indicated that the Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter, and Rhodococcus genera are the candidate for in situ bioremediation, and the environment of QTP may be still relatively uncontaminated by crude oil.     

Effects of salinity on multiplication and transmission of an intertidal trematode parasite

Salinity levels vary spatially in coastal areas, depending on proximity to freshwater sources, and may also be slowly decreasing as a result of anthropogenic climatic changes. The impact of salinity on host–parasite interactions is potentially a key regulator of transmission processes in intertidal areas, where trematodes are extremely common parasites of invertebrates and vertebrates. We investigated experimentally the effects of long-term exposure to decreased salinity levels on output of infective stages (cercariae) and their transmission success in the trematode Philophthalmus sp. This parasite uses the snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus as intermediate host, in which it asexually produces cercariae. After leaving the snail, cercariae encyst externally on hard substrates to await accidental ingestion by shorebirds, which serve as definitive hosts. We found that at reduced salinities (25 or 30 psu), the cercarial output of the parasite was lower, the time taken by cercariae to encyst was longer, fewer cercariae successfully encysted and encysted parasites had lower long-term survival than at normal seawater salinity (35 psu). The strong effect of salinity on the replication and transmission of this parasite suggests that there may be sources and sinks of transmission to birds along coastal areas, depending on local salinity conditions. Also, unless it evolves to adapt to changing conditions, the predicted reduction in salinity as a consequence of climate change may have negative impact on the parasite’s abundance.     

Attraction of the potential biocontrol agent <Emphasis Type="Italic">Galerucella placida</Emphasis> (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) to the volatiles of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Polygonum orientale</Emphasis> (Polygonaceae) weed leaves

Galerucella placida Baly (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is a potential biocontrol agent of the rice-field weed Polygonum orientale L. (Polygonaceae). The volatile organic compound (VOC) profiles from undamaged and mechanically damaged plants, and from plants 12- and 36-h following continuous feeding of female G. placida adults and 2nd instar larvae were identified and quantified by GC–MS and GC-FID analyses. Twenty-four and 21 compounds were identified in volatiles of undamaged and insect feeding plants, respectively; whereas 22 compounds were detected in volatiles of mechanically damaged plants. Decanal and 1-dodecanol were unique to undamaged plants, and linalool was detected in volatiles of undamaged and mechanically damaged plants, but not in volatiles of insect damaged plants. However, the beetles are not attracted by none of these volatile components, when tested individually in Y-shaped glass tube olfactometer bioassays. In all plants, methyl jasmonate was predominant. 1-Undecanol was the least amount in undamaged plants, and plants 12-h after feeding by G. placida adults and larvae; whereas 1-tridecanol was the least abundant in plants 36-h after feeding by G. placida adults and larvae, and mechanically damaged plants. The beetles showed significant preference to the whole volatile blends from plants 12-h after feeding by larvae and plants 36-h after feeding by either larvae or adults compared to those of undamaged plants. Further, G. placida responded to individual synthetic compounds, 3-hexanol, 1-octen-3-ol, nonanal, and geraniol at 7, 1.38, 3.75 and 4.5 µg/25 µL CH₂Cl₂, respectively, and provide a basis for attraction of the potential biocontrol agent in the field.     

Observations and analytical modeling of freshwater and rainwater lenses in coastal dune systems

Observations are reported on (i) groundwater recharge rates under various types of vegetation as measured with megalysimeters in the dunes, (ii) freshwater lenses along the Dutch North Sea coast in the early 1900s, and (iii) rainwater lenses that develop on top of laterally migrating, artificially recharged riverwater. Subsequently analytical methods are presented to estimate annual natural groundwater recharge as function of rainfall and vegetation, and to calculate the size, shape and transition zone of freshwater lenses on saline groundwater and rainwater lenses on infiltrated riverwater. An empirical correction factor, based on the hydraulic resistance of an aquitard within the freshwater lens, is proposed to account for the frequently observed reduction of the Ghyben-Herzberg ratio of 40. This factor raises the groundwater table, reduces the depth of the fresh/salt interface and increases the lens formation time. The suite of methods offers a tool box for knowledge based water management of dune systems, by rapidly predicting: (i) more or less autonomous changes due to sealevel rise, climate change and vegetation development; and (ii) the potential (side) effects of interventions. Knowing what happened or will happen to the fresh water lens or a rainwater lens is important, because changes impact on important natural habitat parameters such as salinity, depth to groundwater table, decalcification rate (and thus on pH, Ca/Al, PO₄, NH₄) and nutrient availability, and on drinking water supply. The analytical models are applied to predict effects of sealevel rise, coastal progradation, vegetation changes, and increased temperature of coastal air and river water to be infiltrated.     

The clean development mechanism and community forests in Sub-Saharan Africa: reconsidering Kyoto’s “moral position” on biocarbon sinks in the carbon market

Negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol reached what has been called a moral position on biocarbon sinks which saw important limitations on their use in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the Protocol’s main carbon offset system. After outlining this moral position, this article examines the consequences of these limitations on the viability of community forest participation in the CDM through a case study of three community forests in West Africa. Results suggest that there is significant carbon mitigation potential from forest conservation, reforestation as well as from improved fuelwood cookstoves at the community level. Yet under the current rules of the CDM, little of this overall carbon mitigation potential is able to be realized. Using qualitative research methodologies, it was learned that community respondents showed a pragmatic, yet cautious interest in the CDM while also emphasizing a need for land-use flexibility. The paper closes with a political discussion of the “‘moral position” on biocarbon sinks in the carbon market and concludes with policy recommendations for biocarbon sinks, in both the CDM and REDD, in the post-Kyoto climate change regime.     

Population structure and historical demography of the thorny skate (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Amblyraja radiata</Emphasis>, Rajidae) in the North Atlantic

Population genetic structure of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) was surveyed in >300 individuals sampled from Newfoundland, Iceland, Norway, the Kattegat and the central North Sea. A 290-bp fragment of the mt cytochrome-b gene was first screened by SSCP. Sequences of SSCP haplotypes revealed 34 haplotypes, 14 of which were unique to Iceland, 3 to Newfoundland, 1 to Norway and 3 to the Kattegat. The global F _ST was weak but significant. Removal of the two Kattegat locations, which were the most differentiated, resulted in no significant genetic differentiation. Haplotype diversity was high and evenly distributed across the entire Atlantic (h = 0.8) with the exception of the North Sea (h = 0.48). Statistical parsimony revealed a star-like genealogy with a central widespread haplotype. A subsequent nested clade analysis led to the inference of contiguous expansion with evidence for long distance dispersal between Newfoundland and Iceland. Historical demographic analysis showed that thorny skates have undergone exponential population expansion that started between 1.1 million and 690,000 years ago; and that the Last Glacial Maximum apparently had little effect. These results strongly differ from those of a parallel study of the thornback ray (Raja clavata) in which clear structure and former refugial areas could be identified. Although both species have similar life history traits and overlapping ranges, the continental shelf edge apparently does not present a barrier to migration in A. radiata, as it does for R. clavata.