Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.     

Simple models of massive epidemics of herpesvirus in Australian (and New Zealand) pilchards.

In March 1995, a mass mortality of pilchard started to occur in South Australia. This spread very rapidly throughout the Australian pilchard's range, later reaching New Zealand. In November 1998, a similar mass mortality broke out in South Australia and also spread, at a slower rate, throughout the Australian range. The mortality appeared to be caused by a herpesvirus. The mortality spread as a classical epidemic front, but its speed of progress and the brief duration of mortalities at a given location are extreme. We apply simple epidemic modelling techniques, SIR and SEIR modelling, to examine the factors behind the spread of this mortality and the differences between the 1995 and 1998/9 epidemics. We discuss biological factors influencing the critical processes of long-distance (D) and local (beta) transmission of infection.     

State-Space Modeling of the Relationship between Air Quality and Mortality

ABSTRACT

A portion of a population is assumed to be at risk, with the mortality hazard varying with atmospheric conditions including total suspended particulates (TSP). This at-risk population is not observed and the hazard function is unknown; we wish to estimate these from mortality count and atmospheric variables. Consideration of population dynamics leads to a state-space representation, allowing the Kalman Filter (KF) to be used for estimation. A harvesting effect is thus implied; high mortality is followed by lower mortality until the population is replenished by new arrivals.

The model is applied to daily data for Philadelphia, PA, 1973-1990. The estimated hazard function rises with the level of TSP and at extremes of temperature and also reflects a positive interaction between TSP and temperature. The estimated at-risk population averages about 480 and varies seasonally. We find that lags of TSP are statistically significant, but the presence of negative coefficients suggests their role may be partially statistical rather than biological. In the population dynamics framework, the natural metric for health damage from air pollution is its impact on life expectancy. The range of hazard rates over the sample period is 0.07 to 0.085, corresponding to life expectancies of 14.3 and 11.8 days, respectively.     

Reducing discards of fish at sea: a review of European pilot projects

This paper is about improving the viability of discard-reduction pilot projects. One way to address the problem of wasteful discarding of fish at sea is to initiate pilot projects to trial potential solutions, such as selective gear, area closures, discard bans and data enhancement, which could subsequently be adopted by the fishing industry, either voluntarily or through regulation. However, such pilot projects are often difficult both to set up and to sustain through to completion and implementation. This study reviewed 15 discard-related pilot projects to find out what were the most important determinants of their success or lack of it, and to recommend ways in which the prospects of future pilots could be improved. The review identifies the seven most important factors associated with the viability of the pilot projects - fisheries crises; incentivization; funding; expertise; leadership; and enforcement - and shows how fisheries regulators could take steps to reinforce these factors – by faster responses to crises; more incentives and funding; greater use of fishers' knowledge and leadership; and better enforcement mechanisms.     

A comparative analysis of the characteristics of a range of real and synthetic wastewaters

Synthetic wastewaters are widely used in many fields of wastewater research and operational management. However, few comparative studies have been conducted on the large number of published formulations. Eleven synthetic formulations simulating municipal wastewaters were selected based on their frequency of use, relative complexity, ease of formulation and cost and compared to two real municipal wastewaters. Synthetic wastewaters vary significantly in their compositions and characteristics, especially in terms of alkalinity, BOD K ₁, SOUR, BOD_U, COD/BOD and C/N/P ratio, although they are portrayed as ‘typical’ in terms of characteristics and suitability for use. The pH, alkalinity and the presence of Ca and Mg should be considered in combination with the diluent used. Where the diluent is tap water, then the presence of treatment chemicals should also be considered. The effects of the micronutrients present are also an important factor. The study found that no single formulation is appropriate for all situations. Both the Syntho and Synthes formulations attempt to simulate real wastewater, whereas other formulations primarily act as readily biodegradable vectors for toxicity analyses, characterisation studies and treatment process evaluations. The criteria for choosing a particular synthetic wastewater very much depend on its intended application and require careful selection.     

Dam Design can Impede Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows: A Case Study from the Opuha Dam, New Zealand

The Opuha Dam was designed for water storage, hydropower, and to augment summer low flows. Following its commissioning in 1999, algal blooms (dominated first by Phormidium and later Didymosphenia geminata) downstream of the dam were attributed to the reduced frequency and magnitude of high-flow events. In this study, we used a 20-year monitoring dataset to quantify changes associated with the dam. We also studied the effectiveness of flushing flows to remove periphyton from the river bed. Following the completion of the dam, daily maximum flows downstream have exceeded 100 m³ s^?1 only three times; two of these floods exceeded the pre-dam mean annual flood of 203 m³ s^?1 (compared to 19 times >100 m³ s^?1 and 6 times >203 m³ s^?1 in the 8 years of record before the dam). Other changes downstream included increases in water temperature, bed armoring, frequency of algal blooms, and changes to the aquatic invertebrate community. Seven experimental flushing flows resulted in limited periphyton reductions. Flood wave attenuation, bed armoring, and a shortage of surface sand and gravel, likely limited the effectiveness of these moderate floods. Floods similar to pre-dam levels may be effective for control of periphyton downstream; however, flushing flows of that magnitude are not possible with the existing dam infrastructure. These results highlight the need for dams to be planned and built with the capacity to provide the natural range of flows for adaptive management, particularly high flows.     

Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine

Evidence from woodrat middens and tree rings at Dutch John Mountain (DJM) in northeastern Utah reveal spatiotemporal patterns of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis Engelm.) colonization and expansion in the past millennium. The DJM population, a northern outpost of pinyon, was established by long-distance dispersal (approximately 40 km). Growth of this isolate was markedly episodic and tracked multidecadal variability in precipitation. Initial colonization occurred by AD 1246, but expansion was forestalled by catastrophic drought (1250-1288), which we speculate produced extensive mortality of Utah Juniper (Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little), the dominant tree at DJM for the previous approximately 8700 years. Pinyon then quickly replaced juniper across DJM during a few wet decades (1330-1339 and 1368-1377). Such alternating decadal-scale droughts and pluvial events play a key role in structuring plant communities at the landscape to regional level. These decadal-length precipitation anomalies tend to be regionally coherent and can synchronize physical and biological processes across large areas. Vegetation forecast models must incorporate these temporal and geographic aspects of climate variability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change.     

A test of sequential extractions for determining metal speciation in sewage sludge-amended soils

Sequential extraction procedures are widely used to estimate the quantity of trace metals bound to different solid fractions in contaminated soils. However, reliability of speciation of trace metals by these procedures remains largely unexamined. In the present study, the selectivity of each extraction step was tested by observing the effect of reversing the extraction order in the procedure. Two different sequential extraction methods and their reversed modes were used for metal fractionation in sewage sludge-amended soils. Significantly increased amounts of extractable metals (Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn) were evident in the sludge-amended soils compared to control soil by all extraction schemes; however, the amounts of metals extracted by each step were strongly dependent on the order of extraction, the type of reagents and the nature of the individual metals. Caution is advised in deducing the forms of soil metals from sequential extraction results from metal-contaminated soils.     

Accumulation of Cu and Zn from antifouling paint particles by the marine macroalga,Ulva lactuca

The marine macroalga, Ulva lactuca, has been exposed to different concentrations of antifouling paint particles (4–200 mg L^?1) in the presence of a fixed quantity of clean estuarine sediment and its photosynthetic response and accumulation of Cu and Zn monitored over a period of 2 days. An immediate (<2 h) toxic effect was elicited under all experimental conditions that was quantitatively related to the concentration of contaminated particles present. Likewise, the rate of leaching of both Cu and Zn was correlated with the concentration of paint particles added. Copper accumulation by the alga increased linearly with aqueous Cu concentration, largely through adsorption to the cell surface, but significant accumulation of Zn was not observed. Thus, in coastal environments where boat maintenance is practiced, discarded antifouling paint particles are an important source of Cu, but not Zn, to U. lactuca.