LEAP2000:可持续能源分析的工具

LEAP是由斯德哥尔摩环境研究所(SEI)波士顿中心领导的一项合作项目,旨在为一体化的能源环境分析建立一套新的分析软件和数据库.LEAP2000项目的产品应尽早获得以广为传播.     

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.     

The distribution and extent of heavy metal accumulation in song sparrows along Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River

Heavy metals are persistent environmental contaminants, and transport of metals into the environment poses a threat to ecosystems, as plants and wildlife are susceptible to long-term exposure, bioaccumulation, and potential toxicity. We investigated the distribution and cascading extent of heavy metal accumulation in southwestern song sparrows (Melospiza melodia fallax), a resident riparian bird species that occurs along the US/Mexico border in Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River watershed. This study had three goals: (1) quantify the degree of heavy metal accumulation in sparrows and determine the distributional patterns among study sites, (2) compare concentrations of metals found in this study to those found in studies performed prior to a 2009 international wastewater facility upgrade, and (3) assess the condition of song sparrows among sites with differing potential levels of exposure. We examined five study sites along with a reference site that reflect different potential sources of contamination. Body mass residuals and leukocyte counts were used to assess sparrow condition. Birds at our study sites typically had higher metal concentrations than birds at the reference site. Copper, mercury, nickel, and selenium in song sparrows did exceed background levels, although most metals were below background concentrations determined from previous studies. Song sparrows generally showed lower heavy metal concentrations compared to studies conducted prior to the 2009 wastewater facility upgrade. We found no cascading effects as a result of metal exposure.     

Regional status assessment of stony corals in the US Virgin Islands

States may protect coral reefs using biological water quality standards outlined by the Clean Water Act. This requires biological assessments with indicators sensitive to human disturbance and regional, probability-based survey designs. Stony coral condition was characterized on a regional scale for the first time in the nearshore waters of the US Virgin Islands (USVI). Coral composition, abundance, size, and health were assessed at 66 stations in the St. Croix region in fall 2007 and at 63 stations in the St. Thomas and St. John region in winter 2009. Indicators were chosen for their sensitivity to human disturbance. Both surveys were probability-based (random) designs with station locations preselected from areas covered by hardbottom and coral reef substrate. Taxa richness was as high as 21 species but more than half the area of both regions exhibited taxa richness of <10 species in the 25 m² transect area. Coral density was as high as 5 colonies m^?2 but more than half the area of both regions had <2 colonies m^?2. Both regions showed similar dominant species based on frequency of occurrence and relative abundance. Because of large colony sizes, Montastrea annularis provided more total surface area and live surface area than more abundant species. The surveys establish baseline regional conditions and provide a foundation for long-term regional monitoring envisioned by the USVI Department of Planning and Natural Resources. The probabilistic sampling design assures the data can be used in Clean Water Act reporting.     

Statistical modeling of crystalline silica exposure by trade in the construction industry using a database compiled from the literature

A quantitative determinants-of-exposure analysis of respirable crystalline silica (RCS) levels in the construction industry was performed using a database compiled from an extensive literature review. Statistical models were developed to predict work-shift exposure levels by trade. Monte Carlo simulation was used to recreate exposures derived from summarized measurements which were combined with single measurements for analysis. Modeling was performed using Tobit models within a multimodel inference framework, with year, sampling duration, type of environment, project purpose, project type, sampling strategy and use of exposure controls as potential predictors. 1346 RCS measurements were included in the analysis, of which 318 were non-detects and 228 were simulated from summary statistics. The model containing all the variables explained 22% of total variability. Apart from trade, sampling duration, year and strategy were the most influential predictors of RCS levels. The use of exposure controls was associated with an average decrease of 19% in exposure levels compared to none, and increased concentrations were found for industrial, demolition and renovation projects. Predicted geometric means for year 1999 were the highest for drilling rig operators (0.238 mg m(-3)) and tunnel construction workers (0.224 mg m(-3)), while the estimated exceedance fraction of the ACGIH TLV by trade ranged from 47% to 91%. The predicted geometric means in this study indicated important overexposure compared to the TLV. However, the low proportion of variability explained by the models suggests that the construction trade is only a moderate predictor of work-shift exposure levels. The impact of the different tasks performed during a work shift should also be assessed to provide better management and control of RCS exposure levels on construction sites.     

A multivariate examination of ‘artificial mussels’ in conjunction with spot water tests in freshwater ecosystems

Metal pollution in aquatic systems is considered a serious environmental issue globally due to their ability to accumulate in aquatic environments. Wetlands are vulnerable to this pollution as they are known to trap toxins, removing them from the water. Artificial mussel technology, originally developed for marine environments, was applied to this freshwater system and spot water samples were collected. The Nyl River floodplain (Ramsar classified) is one of the largest and most ecologically significant wetlands in South Africa. The aims of this study were to determine metal contamination along the Nyl River system by means of artificial mussels (AM) and water ICP-MS analysis and to determine whether the use of AMs in conjunction with spot water testing could give more insight into the pollution in freshwater wetlands. The concentrations of Al, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were determined at seven sites. It was determined that the levels accumulated by the AMs differed in spatial and temporal trends when compared to spot water samples. It was determined that there were high levels of some metals found in the spot water tests that were not corroborated by the AMs results, which could indicate isolated pollution events. The use of AMs in conjunction with spot water testing was determined to be beneficial in gaining deeper insight into water metal conditions in dynamic freshwater systems.     

Pastoralists in a changing environment: The competition for grazing land in and around the W Biosphere Reserve,Benin Republic

Pastoralists face increasing competition for land with crop farmers and nature in and around the W Biosphere Reserve (WBR) in Benin. Our aim was to describe and analyse land use changes in order to understand their drivers, and to describe and analyse the viewpoints of relevant stakeholders in order to understand the competition for land. To this end, remote sensing data, regional statistics, and survey data were collected. We found that crop land expansion around the WBR was the direct driver of decrease of the grazing land area. Population growth and rising demand for food crops, and government support to the cotton sector were indirect drivers of grazing land reduction. Furthermore, competing claims on land among users arose from the complex interaction of crop expansion, presence of WBR and the way it is governed, the lack of support to pastoralists, and the increasing shift of pastoralists’ lifestyle into one of settled crop farmers. Pastoralism is under threat and its survival depends on the successful implementation of policies to support pastoralists and protect grazing lands.     

Validation of a booted finite element model of the WIAMan ATD lower limb in component and whole-body vertical loading impacts with an assessment of the boot influence model on response

Objective: A novel anthropomorphic test device (ATD) representative of the 50th percentile male soldier is being developed to predict injuries to a vehicle occupant during an underbody blast (UBB). The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a finite element (FE) model of the ATD lower limb outfitted with a military combat boot and to insert the validated lower limb into a model of the full ATD and simulate vertical loading experiments.

Methods: A Belleville desert combat boot model was assigned contacts and material properties based on previous experiments. The boot model was fit to a previously developed model of the barefoot ATD. Validation was performed through 6 matched pair component tests conducted on the Vertically Accelerated Loads Transfer System (VALTS). The load transfer capabilities of the FE model were assessed along with the force-mitigating properties of the boot. The booted lower limb subassembly was then incorporated into a whole-body model of the ATD. Two whole-body VALTS experiments were simulated to evaluate lower limb performance in the whole body.

Results: The lower limb model accurately predicted axial loads measured at heel, tibia, and knee load cells during matched pair component tests. Forces in booted simulations were compared to unbooted simulations and an amount of mitigation similar to that of experiments was observed. In a whole-body loading environment, the model kinematics match those recorded in experiments. The shape and magnitude of experimental force–time curves were accurately predicted by the model. Correlation between the experiments and simulations was backed up by high objective rating scores for all experiments.

Conclusion: The booted lower limb model is accurate in its ability to articulate and transfer loads similar to the physical dummy in simulated underbody loading experiments. The performance of the model leads to the recommendation to use it appropriately as an alternative to costly ATD experiments.     

When experts disagree: the need to rethink indicator selection for assessing sustainability of agriculture

Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness and trust in such frameworks. Selecting indicators requires transparent and well-defined procedures to ensure the relevance and validity of sustainability assessments. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine whether experts agree on which criteria are most important in the selection of indicators and indicator sets for robust sustainability assessments. Two groups of experts (Temperate Agriculture Research Network and New Zealand Sustainability Dashboard) were asked to rank the relative importance of eleven criteria for selecting individual indicators and of nine criteria for balancing a collective set of indicators. Both ranking surveys reveal a startling lack of consensus amongst experts about how best to measure agricultural sustainability and call for a radical rethink about how complementary approaches to sustainability assessments are used alongside each other to ensure a plurality of views and maximum collaboration and trust amongst stakeholders. To improve the transparency, relevance and robustness of sustainable assessments, the context of the sustainability assessment, including prioritizations of selection criteria for indicator selection, must be accounted for. A collaborative design process will enhance the acceptance of diverse values and prioritizations embedded in sustainability assessments. The process by which indicators and sustainability frameworks are established may be a much more important determinant of their success than the final shape of the assessment tools. Such an emphasis on process would make assessments more transparent, transformative and enduring.