Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

利用玉米浸泡液产电的微生物燃料电池研究

以玉米淀粉生产过程中的浸泡液（玉米浸泡液）作为接种液和基质,利用“三合一”膜电极的单室空气阴极微生物燃料电池进行试验,采用在线监测电压和废水分析方法对产电功率和化学需氧量（COD）、氨氮进行测定,探讨高COD、高氨氮有机废水产电及废水处理的可行性.结果表明,经过94 d（1个周期）的连续运行（固定外电阻为1 000 Ω）,17 d时输出电压达到最大（525.0 mV）,稳定期最大输出功率可达169.6 mW/m²,此时电池相应的电流密度为440.2 mA/m²,内阻约为350 Ω,开路电压619.5 mV;但燃料电池电子利用效率较低（库仑效率为1.6%）;1个周期结束时浸泡液的COD去除率达到51.6%,氨氮去除率25.8%.本试验利用玉米浸泡液成功获得电能,同时对浸泡液有效地进行了处理,为其资源化利用提供新途径.     

Effects of distillery waste on the performance of Cicer arietinum L

The impact of distillery effluent in various concentrations (1, 2.5, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100%) on the seed germination, Speed of Germination Index, growth behaviour, leaf area, biomass, net primary productivity, pigment content, reproductive capacity, seed output, seed weight, seed density and the seed protein content of Cicer arietinum L. plants was investigated. The percentage and speed of germination of seeds were increasingly retarded with increase in effluent concentration and at 100% concentration there was no germination. The seedlings exhibited maximum shoot length at 5% concentration and maximum root length at 2.5% concentration. The values of root and shoot lengths, leaf area, biomass, net primary productivity, pigment content, reproductive capacity, seed output, seed weight, seed density and seed protein content in pot plants exhibited a gradual increase from the control up to 5% concentration and decreases at higher concentrations. The very high BOD load and the presence of excessive concentrations of soluble salts could be responsible for the toxicity of the effluent. The effluent at up to 5% concentration was, however, beneficial for the overall growth parameters studied and can thus be used as a liquid fertilizer.     

Comparison of Soil Extraction Isotherms of Soil Samples Saturated With Nonpolar Liquids

In multiphase systems capillary pressures play a significant role on fluid movement and retention. The facility to predict the effect of different thermal remediation strategies requires the knowledge of the effect of temperature on capillary pressure-saturation relationships in the soils. The objective of recent study was (a) to develop a technique for routinely measuring the pressure-saturation curves of soil samples saturated with a nonpolar liquid at different regulated temperatures (b) to build a database using the measured pressure-saturation curves and the physical, chemical properties of the model soils (c) to establish the dependence of nonaqueous phase liquid retention on the soil properties and the temperature. The retention curves (extraction isotherms) with nonaqueous phase liquid were determined using a modified pressure plate extractor. The wetting phase was a non-aromatic hydrocarbon distillation product. Pressure plates were designed and constructed in the laboratory of our department. The temperature was held constant at 20, 40 and 60 ^∘C. Statistical analysis was performed involving selected soil parameters and the measured nonaqueous phase liquid retention data. The results show that knowing some easily measurable soil parameters (bulk density, particle size distribution, humus and lime content) we can estimate the nonaqueous phase liquid retention of the soils. The measured “extraction isotherms” provide essential information about the temperature-dependency of pressure-saturation curves.     

四川省卧龙地区土壤中二噁英类化合物和多氯萘的海拔梯度分布及对牦牛的毒性风险评价

初步研究了四川省卧龙地区5个不同海拔高度的表层土壤和2个牦牛样品中二噁英/呋喃(PCDD/Fs)、共平面多氯联苯(co-PCBs)和多氯萘(PCNs)的分布特征、来源、毒性当量以及生态风险状况.土壤样品中总2,3,7,8-PCDD/Fs的含量范围为2.48-4.30 pg·g-1dw,平均3.50 pg·g-1dw,最高含量在海拔3927 m的塘房.co-PCBs的总含量平均为9.14 pg·g-1dw,最高值在海拔4487 m的垭口.总2,3,7,8-PC-DD/Fs和总co-PCBs含量随海拔高度的变化表现出正相关关系.不同海拔高度土壤中的PCDD/Fs和co-PCBs异构体的分布相似,表明具有相同的来源.总PCNs与海拔梯度呈负相关关系,最高含量出现在海拔3345 m的贝母坪,平均21.4 pg·g-1dw,主要以3.氯为主.土壤中PcDD/Fs毒性当量浓度范围为0.29-0.43pg TEQ·g-1dw.牦牛肉和牦牛组织中PcDD,/Fs总浓度分别为27.5和23.6 pg·g-1脂肪,毒性当量浓度为4.04和4.07 pg TEQ·g-1脂肪.结果表明,牦牛中的PCDD/Fg,co-PcBs和PCNs不大可能对卧龙地区人群导致严重的负面效应.     

Affordability of residential water tariffs: Alternative measurement and explanatory factors in southern Spain

Using information on a basic or “lifeline” level of domestic water use obtained from a water demand function based on a Stone–Geary utility function, a minimum water threshold of 128 m³ per household per year was estimated in a sample of municipalities in Southern Spain. As a second objective, water affordability indexes were then calculated that relate the cost of such lifeline to average municipal income levels. The analysis of the factors behind the differences in that ratio across Andalusian municipalities shows that the relative cost of purchasing the lifeline appears inversely related to average income levels, revealing an element of regressivity in the component of water tariffs affecting the least superfluous part of the household’s consumption. The main policy recommendation would involve redesigning water tariffs in order to improve access for lower income households to an amount of water sufficient to cover their basic needs. The proposed methodology could be applied to other geographical areas, both from developed and from developing countries, in order to analyze the degree of progressivity of the water tariffs currently in effect and in order to guide the design of more equitable regulatory policies.     

Investigation of potentially toxic heavy metals in different organic wastes used to fertilize market garden crops

The benefits of using organic waste as fertilizer and soil amendment should be assessed together with the environmental impacts due to the possible presence of heavy metals (HMs). This study involved analysing major element and HM contents in raw and size-fractionated organic wastes (17 sewage sludges and composts) from developed and developing countries. The overall HM concentration pattern showed an asymmetric distribution due to the presence of some wastes with extremely high concentrations. HM concentrations were correlated with the size of cities or farms where the wastes had been produced, and HM were differentiated with respect to their origins (geogenic: Cr–Ni; anthropogenic agricultural and urban: Cu–Zn; anthropogenic urban: Cd–Pb). Size fractionation highlighted Cd, Cu, Zn and Pb accumulation in fine size fractions, while Cr and Ni were accumulated in the coarsest. HM associations with major elements revealed inorganic (Al, Fe, etc.) bearing phases for Cr and Ni, and sulfur or phosphorus species for Cd, Cu Pb and Zn.     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.     

Water Remediation: PVA-Based Magnetic Gels as Efficient Devices to Heavy Metal Removal

Scientific and technological researches are devoted to obtain materials capable of retaining different kinds of pollutants, contributing to contamination solutions. In this context, hydrogels have emerged as great candidates because of their excellent absorption properties as well as good mechanical, thermal and chemical properties. More specifically, ferrogels (magnetic gels) present the extra advantage of being easily manipulated by a permanent magnet. Here, we present the results derived from the application of ferrogels as efficient tools to extract heavy metal pollutants from wastewater samples. The gels were prepared following the method of freezing and thawing of a polyvinyl alcohol aqueous solution with magnetic nanoparticles coated with polyacrylic acid. Ferrogels were fully characterized and their ability to retain Cu²⁺ and Cd²⁺, as model heavy metals, was studied. Thus kinetics and mechanisms of adsorption were evaluated and modeled. The concentration of MNPs on the PVA matrix was key to improve the adsorption capability (approximately the double of retention is improved by the MNPs addition). The adsorption kinetics was determined as pseudo-second order model, whereas the Langmuir model was the most appropriate to explain the behavior of the gels. Finally reuse ability was evaluated to determine the real potential of these materials, the ferrogels demonstrated high efficiency up to about five cycles, retaining about 80–90% of their initial adsorption capability. All the results indicated that the materials are promising candidates able to compete with the commercial technology regarding to water remediation.     

Effects of Natural and Artificial Weathering on the Physical Properties of Recycled Poly(ethylene terephthalate)

In accelerated weathering tests, specimens are exposed to higher radiation intensity, temperature and humidity than is likely under natural weathering in order to achieve rapid degradation of the polymer in a convenient short time. In the current work, a correlation between the two environments is attempted so that a prediction of lifetimes in the natural environment can be achieved. During aging, surface flaws are created due to the chain scission process. This is initiated by the absorption of ultra-violet light and directly affects visual appearance and impact strength. After natural weathering, the material shows only plastic deformation in an impact test. However, after artificial weathering to 5000 h of UV exposure, there is a decrease of 85% in impact strength. Colour change occurs at a high rate in the early stages of UV exposure. Beyond 2000 h of exposure, the colour change approaches a steady state and a correlation between the changes under natural and artificial weathering becomes apparent for a potential prediction of lifetimes. From the analysis including the specular component (SCI), taking surface roughening into account, 1 year under natural weathering was found to be equivalent to 25 days under accelerated weathering.