The reasons for developing quantitative estimates of uncertainty in environmental risk assessments are discussed along with a method for developing them which involves scientific judgement. In the situation considered here the regulatory needs are ahead of the science, which makes the development of the estimates on uncertainty more difficult, but not impossible. Quantitative estimates for all uncertainties involved in the estimation of risk resulting from exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in drinking water are developed and tabulated. By far the largest contribution to the uncertainty in the risk estimates for VOCs in drinking water are due to uncertainty in the extrapolation of the dose-response curve to low levels. The uncertainty due to extrapolation is on the order of 104 and 106. Other components of the analysis may contribute uncertainties of a few orders of magnitude. In general the largest uncertainties are in the toxicological data base and the manipulation of it needed to estimate risk. The data base and manipulations needed to estimate exposure due to VOCs in drinking water were at the more an order to magnitudes in uncertainty. 相似文献
An interdisciplinary approach based on high-resolution physical stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, organic matter analysis and clay mineralogy has been applied to the mixed siliciclastic/carbonate Kimmeridgian/Tithonian deposits of the Boulonnais (north-western France). These rocks are the age-equivalents of some of the offshore marine source rocks of the North Sea and were deposited in an overall storm-dominated homoclinal ramp setting which may represent one of the most shore-proximal sediments of this age cropping out in north-western Europe. Comparison with data from the Yorkshire, Dorset, Lorraine and Aquitaine areas allows the discrimination of three major transgressive-regressive sediment packages with disconformities of interregional extent: (1) from the Baylei Zone to top Eudoxus Zone; (2) from the Autissiodorensis Zone to base Scitulus Zone; (3) from the upper Scitulus Zone to the Pectinatus Zone. The lower two regionally correlative disconformities correspond to the sequence boundaries at the top of the Eudoxus Zone and the top of the Autissiodorensis Zone, formed by high-frequency relative sea-level variations during the periods of maximum transgression of the platform. The latter disconformity (the P1 nodule bed) reflects a major tectonically induced reorganization of the north-west European intrashelf sedimentary basin, characterized by a shift in both the location of the main depocentre and the sources of sediment production. 相似文献
The 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill remains the largest catastrophic release of oil and gas into the deep sea. The irrupted oil and gas substantially impact a marine ecosystem, cause human injury, and have high societal opinions. Therefore, understanding the transport and dispersion of subsurface hydrocarbon provides an imperative substratum for the practical assessment and response of marine oil spill accidents. In this review, we summarize the major advances since the Deepwater Horizon accident, with emphasis on the observation and modeling of the droplet and the formation and dynamics of the plume. Additional complexity including more than the investigation of gas-saturated oil at high-pressure and the effect of Earth’s rotation on near field plume is also outlined. We end with a few outlooks on key priorities for more precisely estimations on future oil spills.
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