Developing an empirical model of phytoplankton primary production: a neural network case study

We describe the development of a neural network model for estimating primary production of phytoplankton. Data from an enriched estuary in the eastern United States, Chesapeake Bay, were used to train, validate and test the model. Two error backpropagation multilayer perceptrons were trained: a simpler one (3-5-1) and a more complex one (12-5-1). Both neural networks outperformed conventional empirical models, even though only the latter, which exploits a larger suite of predictive variables, provided truly accurate outputs. The application of this neural network model is thoroughly discussed and the results of a sensitivity analysis are also presented.     

Day-of-week patterns of particulate matter and its chemical components at selected sites in California

This paper analyzes day-of-week variations in concentrations of particulate matter (PM) in California. Because volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) are not only precursors of ozone (O3) but also of secondary PM, it is useful to know whether the variations by day of week in these precursors are also evident in PM data. Concentrations of PM < or = 10 microm (PM10) and < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) were analyzed. PM concentrations exhibit a general weekly pattern, with the maximum occurring late in the workweek and the minimum occurring on weekends (especially Sunday); however, this pattern does not prevail at all sites and areas. PM nitrate (NO3-) data from Size Selective Inlet (SSI) samplers in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) tend to be somewhat lower on weekends compared with weekdays. During 1988-1991, the weekend average was lower than the weekday average at 8 of 13 locations, with an average decrease of 1%. During 1997-2000, the weekend average was lower than the weekday average at 10 of 13 locations, with an average decrease of 6%. The weekend averages are generally lower than weekday averages for sulfates, organic carbon, and elemental carbon. Because heavy-duty trucks typically represent a major source of elemental carbon, the weekend decrease in heavy-duty truck traffic may also result in a decrease in ambient elemental carbon concentrations.     

Multiseasonal management of an agricultural pest II: the economic optimization problem

The problem of selecting a pesticide application strategy in the face of increasing resistance to the pesticide in the pest population is dealt with. The grower in this situation may do better by sacrificing a portion of the present crop in return for a reduced resistance to future applications. The model presented represents an attempt to forge a compromise between excessive complexity, rendering the model difficult to study, and excessive simplicity, rendering the model useless. The effects of timing of the application of the pesticide within the season are discussed. The principle conclusions are the following: (i) If immigration of pests from refugia is significant then proper timing of the application of pesticide may be used to help alleviate resistance growth. (ii) Resistance growth may best be reduced by spraying earlier than what would otherwise be the best time. (iii) The value of the discount rate (and of the time horizon) has a profound effect on the nature of the optimal policy.     

Male dominance,female choice and male copulatory behavior in two species of voles (Microtus ochrogaster and Microtus montanus)

Summary Female preferences for dominant males in prairie and montane voles were analyzed in two different test situations. In the first, prairie vole females preferentially spent time in proximity to dominant versus subordinate males which were housed behind a wire mesh screen. In a two-male tether test prairie voles females both preferentially associated and mated with dominant males. Montane voles, on the other hand, showed no preference in either test situation. The baseline copulatory behavior of naive montane vole males which became dominant differed significantly from those which became subordinate; no such differences were evident in the baseline copulatory behavior of naive praire voles. One hour following dominance testing, there was no difference evident between dominant and subordinate males of either species but there was a general facilitation of male copulatory behavior in both species, the effect being of greater magnitude in montane voles.     

Nitrogen input from residential lawn care practices in suburban watersheds in Baltimore county,MD

A residential lawn care survey was conducted as part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study, a Long-term Ecological Research project funded by the National Science Foundation and collaborating agencies, to estimate the nitrogen input to urban watersheds from lawn care practices. The variability in the fertilizer N application rates and the factors affecting the application rates were examined. Results indicated that the annual input of nitrogen from fertilizer is a major component of the urban watershed nitrogen budget and it is both spatially and temporally variable. There is a wide range in the application rate of fertilizer N to residential lawns applied by homeowners and by professional lawn care companies. Survey data estimated a mean fertilizer application rate of 97.6 kg N/ha/yr with a standard deviation of 88.3 kg N/ha/yr. Analyses suggested that the fertilizer application rate is affected by social economic factors and soil characteristics to include the market value of the house, age of development, soil bulk density and soil nitrogen content.