Simulating Unstressed Crop Development and Growth Using the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM)

Since initial development of the EPIC model in 1989, the EPIC plant growth component has been incorporated into other erosion and crop management models (e.g., WEPS, WEPP, SWAT, ALMANAC, and GPFARM) and subsequently modified to meet research objectives of the model developers. This has resulted in different versions of the same base plant growth component. The objectives of this study are the following: (1) describe the standalone Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM), initially derived from the WEPS plant growth model, to be used for merging enhancements from other EPIC-based plant growth models; and (2) describe and evaluate new phenology, seedling emergence, and canopy height sub-models derived from the Phenology Modular Modeling System (PhenologyMMS V1.2) and incorporated into UPGM. A 6-year (2005–2010) irrigated maize (Zea mays L.) study from northeast Colorado was used to calibrate and evaluate UPGM running both the original (i.e., based on WEPS) and new phenology, seedling emergence, and canopy height sub-models. Model statistics indicated the new sub-models usually resulted in better simulation results than the original sub-models. For example when comparing original and new sub-models, respectively, for predicting canopy height, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 53.7 and 40.7 cm, index of agreement (d) was 0.84 and 0.92, relative error (RE) was 26.0 and ?1.26 %, and normalized objective function (NOF) was 0.47 and 0.33. The new sub-models predict leaf number (old sub-models do not), with mean values for 4 years of 2.43 leaves (RMSE), 0.78 (d), 18.38 % (RE), and 0.27 (NOF). Simulating grain yield, final above ground biomass, and harvest index showed little difference when running the original or new sub-models. Both the new phenology and seedling emergence sub-models respond to varying water deficits, increasing the robustness of UPGM for more diverse environmental conditions. Future research will continue working to incorporate existing enhancements from other EPIC-based plant growth models to unify them into one model such as multispecies competition and N cycling.     

Modeling the dispersion of drilling muds using the bblt model: the effects of settling velocity

The benthic boundary layer transport (bblt) model was widely used in the Atlantic Canadian offshore region to assess the potential impact zones from drilling wastes discharges from offshore oil and gas drilling. The current version of the bblt uses a single-class settling velocity scenario, which may affect its performance, as settling velocity is size, shape, and material dependent. In this study, the effects of settling velocity on bblt predictions were assessed by replacing this single-class settling velocity scenario with a multi-class size-dependent settling velocity scenario. The new scenario was used in a hypothetical study to simulate the dispersion of barite and fine-grained drilling cuttings. The study showed that the effects of settling velocity on bblt predictions are spatial, temporal, and material dependent.     

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts

Transformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital—equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth’s current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable.     

大气压光电离源-液相色谱/飞行时间质谱的确认法用于河水、废弃流出物和污水中的雌性激素化合物的检测

近几年来,雌性激素对水环境的影响越来越大,因为这些化合物在浓度低至0.1 ng·l-1 时,都会导致雄性鱼的雌雄间性的变化.所以,需要一种具有灵敏度和选择性高的分析方法用于复杂样品中的雌性激素化合物的检测.     

Using the 'protective environment' framework to analyse children's protection needs in Darfur

A major humanitarian concern during the continuing crisis in Darfur, Sudan, has been the protection of children, although there has been little in the way of comprehensive analysis to guide intervention. Founded on a situational analysis conducted between October 2005 and March 2006, this paper documents the significant threats to children's well-being directly linked to the political conflict. It demonstrates the role of non-conflict factors in exacerbating these dangers and in promoting additional protection violations, and it uses the 'protective environment' framework (UNICEF Sudan, 2006a) to identify systematic features of the current environment that put children at risk. This framework is shown to provide a coherent basis for assessment and planning, prompting broad, multidisciplinary analysis, concentrating on preventive and protective action, and fostering a systemic approach (rather than placing an undue focus on the discrete needs of 'vulnerable groups'). Constraints on its present utility in emergency settings are also noted.     

Outdoor air pollution in close proximity to a continuous point source

Data are lacking on human exposure to air pollutants occurring in ground-level outdoor environments within a few meters of point sources. To better understand outdoor exposure to tobacco smoke from cigarettes or cigars, and exposure to other types of outdoor point sources, we performed more than 100 controlled outdoor monitoring experiments on a backyard residential patio in which we released pure carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer gas for continuous time periods lasting 0.5–2 h. The CO was emitted from a single outlet at a fixed per-experiment rate of 120–400 cc min^?1 (～140–450 mg min^?1). We measured CO concentrations every 15 s at up to 36 points around the source along orthogonal axes. The CO sensors were positioned at standing or sitting breathing heights of 2–5 ft (up to 1.5 ft above and below the source) and at horizontal distances of 0.25–2 m. We simultaneously measured real-time air speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and temperature at single points on the patio. The ground-level air speeds on the patio were similar to those we measured during a survey of 26 outdoor patio locations in 5 nearby towns. The CO data exhibited a well-defined proximity effect similar to the indoor proximity effect reported in the literature. Average concentrations were approximately inversely proportional to distance. Average CO levels were approximately proportional to source strength, supporting generalization of our results to different source strengths. For example, we predict a cigarette smoker would cause average fine particle levels of approximately 70–110 μg m^?3 at horizontal distances of 0.25–0.5 m. We also found that average CO concentrations rose significantly as average air speed decreased. We fit a multiplicative regression model to the empirical data that predicts outdoor concentrations as a function of source emission rate, source–receptor distance, air speed and wind direction. The model described the data reasonably well, accounting for ～50% of the log-CO variability in 5-min CO concentrations.     

Effects of decadal exposure to interacting elevated CO2 and/or O3 on paper birch (Betula papyrifera) reproduction

We studied the effects of long-term exposure (nine years) of birch (Betula papyrifera) trees to elevated CO(2) and/or O(3) on reproduction and seedling development at the Aspen FACE (Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) site in Rhinelander, WI. We found that elevated CO(2) increased both the number of trees that flowered and the quantity of flowers (260% increase in male flower production), increased seed weight, germination rate, and seedling vigor. Elevated O(3) also increased flowering but decreased seed weight and germination rate. In the combination treatment (elevated CO(2)+O(3)) seed weight is decreased (20% reduction) while germination rate was unaffected. The evidence from this study indicates that elevated CO(2) may have a largely positive impact on forest tree reproduction and regeneration while elevated O(3) will likely have a negative impact.     

Does Engagement in Advocacy Hurt the Credibility of Scientists? Results from a Randomized National Survey Experiment

It is often assumed that issue advocacy will compromise the credibility of scientists. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to test public reactions to six different advocacy statements made by a scientist—ranging from a purely informational statement to an endorsement of specific policies. We found that perceived credibility of the communicating scientist was uniformly high in five of the six message conditions, suffering only when he advocated for a specific policy—building more nuclear power plants (although credibility did not suffer when advocating for a different specific policy—carbon dioxide limits at power plants). We also found no significant differences in trust in the broader climate science community between the six message conditions. Our results suggest that climate scientists who wish to engage in certain forms of advocacy have considerable latitude to do so without risking harm to their credibility, or the credibility of the scientific community.     

Shark recreational fisheries: Status,challenges, and research needs

For centuries, the primary manner in which humans have interacted with sharks has been fishing. A combination of their slow-growing nature and high use-values have resulted in population declines for many species around the world, and to date the vast majority of fisheries-related work on sharks has focused on the commercial sector. Shark recreational fishing remains an overlooked area of research despite the fact that these practices are popular globally and could present challenges to their populations. Here we provide a topical overview of shark recreational fisheries, highlighting their history and current status. While recreational fishing can provide conservation benefits under certain circumstances, we focus our discourse on the relatively understudied, potentially detrimental impacts these activities may have on shark physiology, behavior, and fitness. We took this angle given the realized but potentially underestimated significance of recreational fishing for shark conservation management plans and stock assessments, in hopes of creating a dialogue around sustainability. We also present a series of broad and focused research questions and underpin areas of future research need to assist with the development of this emergent area of research.     

Performance evaluation of an in situ source area combined remedy for the remediation of commingled chlorinated ethanes and ethenes

The chlorinated volatile organic compounds (CVOCs), tetrachloroethene (PCE), trichloroethene (TCE), and 1,1,1‐trichloroethane (1,1,1‐TCA), often found as commingled contaminants of concern (COCs) in groundwater, can degrade via a variety of biotic and abiotic reductive pathways. In situ remediation of a groundwater contaminant source area containing commingled 1,1,1‐TCA, PCE, and TCE was conducted using a combined remedy/treatment train approach. The first step was to create geochemically reducing conditions in the source area to degrade the CVOCs to lesser chlorinated CVOCs (i.e., 1,1‐dichloroethane [1,1‐DCA], 1,1‐dichlorethene [1,1‐DCE], cis‐1,2‐dichoroethene [cis‐1,2‐DCE], and vinyl chloride [VC]) via enhanced reductive dechlorination (ERD). Carbon substrates were injected to create microbial‐induced geochemically reducing conditions. An abiotic reductant (zero‐valent iron [ZVI]) was also used to further degrade the CVOCs, minimizing the generation of 1,1‐DCE and VC, and co‐precipitate temporarily mobilized metals. An in situ aerobic zone was created downgradient of the treatment zone through the injection of oxygen. Remaining CVOC degradation products and temporarily mobilized metals (e.g., iron and manganese) resulting from the geochemically reducing conditions were then allowed to migrate through the aerobic zone. Within the aerobic zone, the lesser chlorinated CVOCs were oxidized and the solubilized metals were precipitated out of solution. The injection of a combination of carbon substrates and ZVI into the groundwater system at the site studied herein resulted in the generation of a geochemically reducing subsurface treatment zone that has lasted for more than 4.5 years. Mass concentrations of total CVOCs were degraded within the treatment zone, with near complete transformation of chlorinated ethenes and a more than 90 percent reduction of CVOC mass concentrations. Production of VC and 1,1‐DCE has been minimized through the combined effects of abiotic and biological processes. CVOC concentrations have declined over time and temporarily mobilized metals are precipitating out of the dissolved phase. Precipitation of the dissolved metals was mitigated using the in situ oxygenation system, also resulting in a return to aerobic conditions in downgradient groundwater. Chloroethane (CA) is the dominant CVOC degradation product within the treatment zone and downgradient of the treatment zone, and it is expected to continue to aerobically degrade over time. CA did not accumulate within and near the aerobic oxygenation zone. The expectations for the remediation system are: (1) the concentrations of CVOCs (primarily in the form of CA) will continue to degrade; (2) total organic carbon concentrations will continue to decline to pre‐remediation levels; and, (3) the groundwater geochemistry will experience an overall trend of transitioning from reducing back to pre‐remediation mildly oxidizing conditions within and downgradient of the treatment zone.