A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.     

Using air quality modeling to study source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides emissions and ozone exposures over the United States

Human exposure to ambient ozone (O₃) has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects. The ozone level at a location is contributed by local production, regional transport, and background ozone. This study combines detailed emission inventory, air quality modeling, and census data to investigate the source–receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions and population exposure to ambient O₃ in 48 states over the continental United States. By removing NO_x emissions from each state one at a time, we calculate the change in O₃ exposures by examining the difference between the base and the sensitivity simulations. Based on the 49 simulations, we construct state-level and census region-level source–receptor matrices describing the relationships among these states/regions. We find that, for 43 receptor states, cumulative NO_x emissions from upwind states contribute more to O₃ exposures than the state's own emissions. In-state emissions are responsible for less than 15% of O₃ exposures in 90% of U.S. states. A state's NO_x emissions can influence 2 to 40 downwind states by at least a 0.1 ppbv change in population-averaged O₃ exposure. The results suggest that the U.S. generally needs a regional strategy to effectively reduce O₃ exposures. But the current regional emission control program in the U.S. is a cap-and-trade program that assumes the marginal damage of every ton of NO_x is equal. In this study, the average O₃ exposures caused by one ton of NO_x emissions ranges from ? 2.0 to 2.3 ppm-people-hours depending on the state. The actual damage caused by one ton of NO_x emissions varies considerably over space.     

Identifying natural and anthropogenic sources of metals in urban and rural soils using GIS-based data,PCA, and spatial interpolation

Determining sources of neurotoxic metals in rural and urban soils is important for mitigating human exposure. Surface soil from four areas with significant clusters of mental retardation and developmental delay (MR/DD) in children, and one control site were analyzed for nine metals and characterized by soil type, climate, ecological region, land use and industrial facilities using readily available GIS-based data. Kriging, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to identify commonalities of metal distribution. Three MR/DD areas (one rural and two urban) had similar soil types and significantly higher soil metal concentrations. PCA and CA results suggested that Ba, Be and Mn were consistently from natural sources; Pb and Hg from anthropogenic sources; and As, Cr, Cu, and Ni from both sources. Arsenic had low commonality estimates, was highly associated with a third PCA factor, and had a complex distribution, complicating mitigation strategies to minimize concentrations and exposures.     

High time-resolved measurements of organic air toxics in different source regimes

High time-resolved (HTR) measurements can provide significant insight into sources and exposures of air pollution. In this study, an automated instrument was developed and deployed to measure hourly concentrations of 18 gas-phase organic air toxics and 6 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at three sites in and around Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The sites represent different source regimes: a site with substantial mobile-source emissions; a residential site adjacent to a heavily industrialized zone; and an urban background site. Despite the close proximity of the sites (less than 13 km apart), the temporal characteristic of outdoor concentrations varied widely. Most of the compounds measured were characterized by short periods of elevated concentrations or plume events, but the duration, magnitude and composition of these events varied from site to site. The HTR data underscored the strong role of emissions from local sources on exposure to most air toxics. Plume events contributed more than 50% of the study average concentrations for all pollutants except chloroform, 1,2-dichloroethane, and carbon tetrachloride. Wind directional dependence of air toxic concentrations revealed that emissions from large industrial facilities affected concentrations at all of the sites. Diurnal patterns and weekend/weekday variations indicated the effects of the mixing layer, point source emissions patterns, and mobile source air toxics (MSATs) on concentrations. Concentrations of many air toxics were temporally correlated, especially MSATs, indicating that they are likely co-emitted. It was also shown that correlations of the HTR data were greater than lower time resolution data (24-h measurements). This difference was most pronounced for the chlorinated pollutants. The stronger correlations in HTR measurements underscore their value for source apportionment studies.     

TBT contamination of remote marine environments: ship groundings and ice-breakers as sources of organotins in the Great Barrier Reef and Antarctica

Remote marine environments such as many parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and the Antarctic are often assumed to be among the most pristine natural habitats. While distance protects them from many sources of pollution, recent studies have revealed extremely high concentrations of organotins in areas associated with shipping activities. Sediments at sites of ship groundings on the GBR have been found to contain up to 340,000 microg Sn kg(-1). Very high concentrations (up to 2290 microg Sn kg(-1)) have been detected in nearshore Antarctic sediments adjacent to channels cut through sea ice by ice-breaking vessels. In both cases, the bulk of the contamination is associated with flakes of antifouling paint abraded from vessel hulls, resulting in patchy but locally intense contamination of sediments. These particulates are likely to continue releasing organotins, rendering grounding sites and ice-breaking routes point-sources of contamination of surrounding environments. While the areas exposed to biologically-harmful concentrations of leached chemicals are likely to be limited in extent (1000-10,000 m(2)), deposition of antifouling paints constitutes a persistent ecological risk in otherwise pristine marine environments of high conservation value. The risk of contamination of GBR and Antarctic sediments by organotins needs to be considered against an important alternative risk: that less effective antifouling of ships hulls may increase the frequency of successful invasions by non-indigenous species. Additional options to minimise ecological risk include accident prevention and reducing organotin contamination from grounding sites through removal or treatment of contaminated sediments, as has been done at some sites in the GBR.     

A Model for Landscape Planning Under Complex Spatial Conditions

We present a new mathematical programming framework that is adaptable to a variety of spatially explicit landscape problems in environmental investment, conservation, and land-use planning, transport planning, and agriculture. As part of capturing spatial interdependencies, the framework considers decision variables at two levels, finely spaced grid cells and landholdings. We applied the framework to an environmental investment problem using objective functions representing biodiversity and carbon sequestration. We also tested the model to optimize the path of a road through part of the landscape. Using the Nambucca case study in eastern Australia, we applied a hybrid greedy randomised adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to find solutions to the model.     

A comparison of speciated atmospheric mercury at an urban center and an upwind rural location

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), particulate mercury (PHg) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured every other hour at a rural location in south central Wisconsin (Devil's Lake State Park, WI, USA) between April 2003 and March 2004, and at a predominantly downwind urban site in southeastern Wisconsin (Milwaukee, WI, USA) between June 2004 and May 2005. Annual averages of GEM, PHg, and RGM at the urban site were statistically higher than those measured at the rural site. Pollution roses of GEM and reactive mercury (RM; sum of PHg and RGM) at the rural and urban sites revealed the influences of point source emissions in surrounding counties that were consistent with the US EPA 1999 National Emission Inventory and the 2003-2005 US EPA Toxics Release Inventory. Source-receptor relationships at both sites were studied by quantifying the impacts of point sources on mercury concentrations. Time series of GEM, PHg, and RGM concentrations were sorted into two categories; time periods dominated by impacts from point sources, and time periods dominated by mercury from non-point sources. The analysis revealed average point source contributions to GEM, PHg, and RGM concentration measurements to be significant over the year long studies. At the rural site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (2%; 0.04 ng m(-3)); and, RM (48%; 5.7 pg m(-3)). At the urban site, contributions to annual average concentrations were: GEM (33%; 0.81 ng m(-3)); and, RM (64%; 13.8 pg m(-3)).