North American vegetation model for land-use planning in a changing climate: a solution to large classification problems

Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected into the future according to low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios of three General Circulation Models for three periods, the decades surrounding 2030, 2060, and 2090. Prominent in the projections were (1) expansion of climates suitable for the tropical dry deciduous forests of Mexico, (2) expansion of climates typifying desertscrub biomes of western USA and northern Mexico, (3) stability of climates typifying the evergreen-deciduous forests of eastern USA, and (4) northward expansion of climates suited to temperate forests, Great Plains grasslands, and montane forests to the detriment of taiga and tundra climates. Maps indicating either poor agreement among projections or climates without contemporary analogs identify geographic areas where land management programs would be most equivocal. Concentrating efforts and resources where projections are more certain can assure land managers a greater likelihood of success.     

Sea lamprey orient toward a source of a synthesized pheromone using odor-conditioned rheotaxis

Characterization of vertebrate chemo-orientation strategies over long distances is difficult because it is often not feasible to conduct highly controlled hypothesis-based experiments in natural environments. To overcome the challenge, we couple in-stream behavioral observations of female sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) orienting to plumes of a synthesized mating pheromone, 7α,12α,24-trihydroxy-5α-cholan-3-one-24-sulfate (3kPZS), and engineering algorithms to systematically test chemo-orientation hypotheses. In-stream field observations and simulated movements of female sea lampreys according to control algorithms support that odor-conditioned rheotaxis is a component of the mechanism used to track plumes of 3kPZS over hundreds of meters in flowing water. Simulated movements of female sea lampreys do not support that rheotaxis or klinotaxis alone is sufficient to enable the movement patterns displayed by females in locating 3kPZS sources in the experimental stream. Odor-conditioned rheotaxis may not only be effective at small spatial scales as previous described in crustaceans, but may also be effectively used by fishes over hundreds of meters. These results may prove useful for developing management strategies for the control of invasive species that exploit the odor-conditioned tracking behavior and for developing biologically inspired navigation strategies for robotic fish.     

Interlaboratory comparison exercise for the analysis of PCDD/Fs in samples of digested sewage sludge

Five UK laboratories participated in a study designed to explore the principal sources of interlaboratory variation in the analysis of PCDD/Fs in sewage sludge. Samples of wet sludge, dry sludge, toluene extract of sludge and cleaned extract of sludge were prepared by an organising laboratory. The samples were analysed in duplicate by each laboratory along with a solution of PCDD/F standards and reference sediment. Mean coefficients of variation between laboratories were 45% for the wet sludge, 33% for the dry sludge, 32% for the extract of sludge, 36% for the cleaned extract of sludge, 32% for the reference sediment and 28% for the standard solution. The results were subjected to statistical analysis, which showed that there was no specific part of the analysis that introduced a dominant part of the variation. The spread of data generated from the analysis of wet sludge samples was not appreciably greater than the spread for the analysis of cleaned extracts. Thus the drying, extraction and clean up processes in the PCDD/F analysis of wet sludge did not have a dramatic effect on the interlaboratory variation.     

Woody biomass phytoremediation of contaminated brownfield land

Economic and environmental regeneration of post-industrial landscapes frequently involves some element of re-afforestation or tree planting. We report field trials that evaluate whether woody biomass production is compatible with managing residual trace element contamination in brownfield soils. Large-scale mapping of contamination showed a heterogenous dispersion of metals and arsenic, and highly localised within-site hotspots. Yields of Salix, Populus and Alnus were economically viable, showing that short-rotation coppice has a potentially valuable role in community forestry. Mass balance modelling demonstrated that phytoextraction potentially could reduce contamination hotspots of more mobile elements (Cd and Zn) within a 25-30-year life cycle of the crops. Cd and Zn in stems and foliage of Salix were 4-13 times higher than EDTA-extractable soil concentrations. Lability of other trace elements (As, Pb, Cu, Ni) was not increased 3 years after planting the coppice; woody biomass may provide an effective reduction of exposure (phyto-stabilization) to these less mobile contaminants.     

Some observations on heavy metal concentrations in soils of the Mendip region of north Somerset

Topsoiis in the Mendip Hills of north Somerset are strongly enriched in Pb, Zn and Cd. While much of this enrichment is the result of pollution stemming from previous base metal mining, analyses of soil profile samples reveals that, in several cases, there is considerable enrichment of heavy metals with depth. This, together with relatively high levels of base metals in samples of the limestone and sandstone bedrocks, suggests that some of the enrichment in soil of heavy metals is due to natural processes.     

Environmental sampling of volatile organic compounds during the 2018 Camp Fire in Northern California

Trace analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during wildfires is imperative for environmental and health risk assessment. The use of gas sampling devices mounted on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to chemically sample air during wildfires is of great interest because these devices move freely about their environment, allowing for more representative air samples and the ability to sample areas dangerous or unreachable by humans. This work presents chemical data from air samples obtained in Davis, CA during the most destructive wildfire in California's history - the 2018 Camp Fire – as well as the deployment of our sampling device during a controlled experimental fire while fixed to a UAV. The sampling mechanism was an in-house manufactured micro-gas preconcentrator (µPC) embedded onto a compact battery-operated sampler that was returned to the laboratory for chemical analysis. Compounds commonly observed in wildfires were detected during the Camp Fire using gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC–MS), including BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, m+p-xylene, and o-xylene), benzaldehyde, 1,4-dichlorobenzene, naphthalene, 1,2,3-trimethylbenzene and 1-ethyl-3-methylbenzene. Concentrations of BTEX were calculated and we observed that benzene and toluene were highest with average concentrations of 4.7 and 15.1 µg/m³, respectively. Numerous fire-related compounds including BTEX and aldehydes such as octanal and nonanal were detected upon experimental fire ignition, even at a much smaller sampling time compared to samples taken during the Camp Fire. Analysis of the air samples taken both stationary during the Camp Fire and mobile during an experimental fire show the successful operation of our sampler in a fire environment.     

Trying Not to Get Burned: Understanding Homeowners’ Wildfire Risk–Mitigation Behaviors

Three causes have been identified for the spiraling cost of wildfire suppression in the United States: climate change, fuel accumulation from past wildfire suppression, and development in fire-prone areas. Because little is likely to be performed to halt the effects of climate on wildfire risk, and because fuel-management budgets cannot keep pace with fuel accumulation let alone reverse it, changing the behaviors of existing and potential homeowners in fire-prone areas is the most promising approach to decreasing the cost of suppressing wildfires in the wildland–urban interface and increasing the odds of homes surviving wildfire events. Wildfire education efforts encourage homeowners to manage their property to decrease wildfire risk. Such programs may be more effective with a better understanding of the factors related to homeowners’ decisions to undertake wildfire risk–reduction actions. In this study, we measured whether homeowners had implemented 12 wildfire risk–mitigation measures in 2 Colorado Front Range counties. We found that wildfire information received from local volunteer fire departments and county wildfire specialists, as well as talking with neighbors about wildfire, were positively associated with higher levels of mitigation. Firsthand experience in the form of preparing for or undertaking an evacuation was also associated with a higher level of mitigation. Finally, homeowners who perceived higher levels of wildfire risk on their property had undertaken higher levels of wildfire-risk mitigation on their property.     

Fishery Stability, Local Extinctions, and Shifts in Community Structure in Skates

Abstract: Skates are arguably the most vulnerable of exploited marine fishes. Their vulnerability is often assessed by examining fisheries catch trends, but these data are not generally recorded on a species basis except in France. Aggregated skate catch statistics tend to exhibit more stable trends than those of other elasmobranch fisheries. We tested whether such apparent stability in aggregated catch trends could mask population declines of individual species. We examined two time series of species-specific surveys of a relatively stable skate fishery in the northeast Atlantic. These surveys revealed the disappearance of two skate species, long-nose skate (   Dipturus oxyrhinchus ) and white skate (   Rostroraja alba ) and confirmed a previously documented decline of the common skate (   D. batis ). Of the remaining five skate species, the three larger ones have declined, whereas two smaller species have increased in abundance. The increase in abundance and biomass of the smaller species has resulted in the stability of the aggregated catch trends. Because there is significant dietary overlap among species, we suggest the increase in abundance of the smaller species may be due to competitive release as the larger species declined. A consequence of this kind of stability is that declining species cannot be detected without species-specific data, especially in taxa exhibiting competitive interactions. This may explain why previously documented disappearances of two species of skates went unnoticed for so long. The conservation of skates and other elasmobranchs requires species-specific monitoring and special attention to larger species.     

Sequencing and Valuing Public Goods

This paper establishes several propositions concerning the importance of context in valuing public goods. It first provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the value of a public good to be independent of context. Utility-constant valuation sequences are considered where public goods are systematically made available or taken away. For the case of strict Hicksian substitutes, willingness to pay for an increase in one of the public goods is strictly decreasing the farther out in a sequence it is valued. For the destruction of public goods the reverse is true for willingness to accept compensation. Sequencing has opposite implications for the assessment of the benefits of providing public goods than for the assessment of the damage from destroying them.     

Correcting common misconceptions to inspire conservation action in urban environments

Despite repeated calls to action, proposals for urban conservation are often met with surprise or scepticism. There remains a pervasive narrative in policy, practice, and the public psyche that urban environments, although useful for engaging people with nature or providing ecosystem services, are of little conservation value. We argue that the tendency to overlook the conservation value of urban environments stems from misconceptions about the ability of native species to persist within cities and towns and that this, in turn, hinders effective conservation action. However, recent scientific evidence shows that these assumptions do not always hold. Although it is generally true that increasing the size, quality, and connectivity of habitat patches will improve the probability that a species can persist, the inverse is not that small, degraded, or fragmented habitats found in urban environments are worthless. In light of these findings we propose updated messages that guide and inspire researchers, practitioners, and decision makers to undertake conservation action in urban environments: consider small spaces, recognize unconventional habitats, test creative solutions, and use science to minimize the impacts of future urban development.