Characterizing the forest fragmentation of Canada’s national parks

Characterizing the amount and configuration of forests can provide insights into habitat quality, biodiversity, and land use. The establishment of protected areas can be a mechanism for maintaining large, contiguous areas of forests, and the loss and fragmentation of forest habitat is a potential threat to Canada’s national park system. Using the Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of Forests (EOSD) land cover product (EOSD LC 2000), we characterize the circa 2000 forest patterns in 26 of Canada’s national parks and compare these to forest patterns in the ecological units surrounding these parks, referred to as the greater park ecosystem (GPE). Five landscape pattern metrics were analyzed: number of forest patches, mean forest patch size (hectare), standard deviation of forest patch size (hectare), mean forest patch perimeter-to-area ratio (meters per hectare), and edge density of forest patches (meters per hectare). An assumption is often made that forests within park boundaries are less fragmented than the surrounding GPE, as indicated by fewer forest patches, a larger mean forest patch size, less variability in forest patch size, a lower perimeter-to-area ratio, and lower forest edge density. Of the 26 national parks we analyzed, 58% had significantly fewer patches, 46% had a significantly larger mean forest patch size (23% were not significantly different), and 46% had a significantly smaller standard deviation of forest patch size (31% were not significantly different), relative to their GPEs. For forest patch perimeter-to-area ratio and forest edge density, equal proportions of parks had values that were significantly larger or smaller than their respective GPEs and no clear trend emerged. In summary, all the national parks we analyzed, with the exception of the Georgian Bay Islands, were found to be significantly different from their corresponding GPE for at least one of the five metrics assessed, and 50% of the 26 parks were significantly different from their respective GPEs for all of the metrics assessed. The EOSD LC 2000 provides a heretofore unavailable dataset for characterizing broad trends in forest fragmentation in Canada’s national parks and in their surrounding GPEs. The interpretation of forest fragmentation metrics must be guided by the underlying land cover context, as many forested ecosystems in Canada are naturally fragmented due to wetlands and topography. Furthermore, interpretation must also consider the management context, as some parks are designed to preserve fragmented habitats. An analysis of forest pattern such as that described herein provides a baseline, from which changes in fragmentation patterns over time could be monitored, enabled by earth observation data.     

Effect of diel period and season on seining effort required to detect changes in Lake Erie beach fish assemblages

Using beach seining data from Lake Erie beaches, we examined the effect of diel period and season on two common study objectives considered sensitive to sampling effort: (1) has fish assemblage composition changed between two sampling time periods?, and (2) how many samples are necessary to provide a representative sample of the fish assemblage? Across a range of effect sizes and power levels, sample sizes were estimated for species richness, total fish abundance, round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) abundance and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) abundance. For most sampling periods and effect sizes, several hundred to several thousand seine hauls were estimated to be required for detecting large-scale (e.g. basin-wide) changes in round goby and emerald shiner abundance. Depending on the indicator of interest, night seining (either spring or fall) was interpreted as the most efficient approach. For both seasons, sampling effort beyond 40 to 50 night seine hauls results in few additional species being detected. Both species accumulation curves and estimated sample sizes indicate that less effort is required to detect species richness changes than fish abundance. For most effect sizes and power levels, estimates of the number of seine hauls required to detect changes in fish abundance are unrealistically large for most monitoring programs. More practical monitoring strategies could be achieved by adopting alternative indicators (e.g. guilds), a more liberal significance level (p=0.1), a paired-site sampling design, or including reference sites.     

Predicting tree diversity across the United States as a function of modeled gross primary production.

At the regional and continental scale, ecologists have theorized that spatial variation in biodiversity can be interpreted as a response to differences in climate. To test this theory we assumed that ecological constraints associated with current climatic conditions (2000-2004) might best be correlated with tree richness if expressed through satellite-derived measures of gross primary production (GPP), rather than the more commonly used, but less consistently derived, net primary production. To evaluate current patterns in tree diversity across the contiguous United States we acquired information on tree composition from the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program that represented more than 17,4000 survey plots. We selected 2693 cells of 1000 km2 within which a sufficient number of plots were available to estimate tree richness per hectare. Our estimates of forest productivity varied from simple vegetation indices indicative of the fraction of light intercepted by canopies at 16-d intervals, a product from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer), to 8- and 10-d GPP products derived with minimal climatic data (MODIS) and SPOT-Vegetation (Systeme Pour l'Observation de la Terre), to 3-PGS (Physiological Principles Predicting Growth with Satellites), which requires both climate and soil data. Across the contiguous United States, modeled predictions of gross productivity accounted for between 51% and 77% of the recorded spatial variation in tree diversity, which ranged from 2 to 67 species per hectare. When the analyses were concentrated within nine broadly defined ecoregions, predictive relations largely disappeared. Only 3-PGS predictions fit a theorized unimodal function by being able to distinguish highly productive forests in the Pacific Northwest that support lower than expected tree diversity. Other models predicted a continuous steep rise in tree diversity with increasing productivity, and did so with generally better or nearly equal precision with fewer data requirements.     

An empirical evaluation of the insurance hypothesis in diversity-stability models

An important stabilizing mechanism in most diversity stability models is the insurance hypothesis, which involves correlation/covariance relationships among species. These models require that species do not fluctuate synchronously over time: that is, the correlation between pairs of species does not equal 1.0. However, the strength of this stabilizing mechanism increases as correlations decline away from 1.0, especially as they become more negative and also as the summed covariance across all species pairs becomes more negative. We evaluated the importance of the insurance hypothesis as a stabilizing mechanism by examining a variety of terrestrial assemblages using long-term data from the Global Population Dynamics Database, the Breeding Bird Survey, and a long-term site in southeastern Arizona, USA. We identified co-occurring assemblages of species and calculated the Spearman rank correlations of all pairs of species and the summed covariance of the entire assemblage. We found that, in most assemblages, positive correlations were two to three times more common than negative and that the magnitude of the positive correlations tended to be stronger than the negative correlations. For all but three assemblages, the summed covariance was positive. Data from larger spatial scales tended to exhibit more positive correlations, but even at the smallest spatial scales, positive correlations outnumbered negative. We suggest that species often covary positively because coexisting species respond similarly to fluctuations in their resource base driven by climatic fluctuations. As such, our review suggests that the insurance hypothesis may not be a strong mechanism stabilizing fluctuations in natural terrestrial communities.     

Emergent conservation outcomes of shared risk perception in human-wildlife systems

Human perception of risks related to economic damages caused by nearby wildlife can be transmitted through social networks. Understanding how sharing risk information within a human community alters the spatial dynamics of human-wildlife interactions has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We developed an agent-based model that simulates farmer livelihood decisions and activities in an agricultural landscape shared with a population of a generic wildlife species (wildlife-human interactions in shared landscapes [WHISL]). In the model, based on risk perception and economic information, farmers decide how much labor to allocate to farming and whether and where to exclude wildlife from their farms (e.g., through fencing, trenches, or vegetation thinning). In scenarios where the risk perception of farmers was strongly influenced by other farmers, exclusion of wildlife was widespread, resulting in decreased quality of wildlife habitat and frequency of wildlife damages across the landscape. When economic losses from encounters with wildlife were high, perception of risk increased and led to highly synchronous behaviors by farmers in space and time. Interactions between wildlife and farmers sometimes led to a spillover effect of wildlife damage displaced from socially and spatially connected communities to less connected neighboring farms. The WHISL model is a useful conservation-planning tool because it provides a test bed for theories and predictions about human-wildlife dynamics across a range of different agricultural landscapes.     

Farmland size,chemical fertilizers,and irrigation management effects on maize and wheat yield in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Farmland size is a key factor in debates over agricultural land use, food security, agrochemical pollution, and the future of smallholder systems. This paper examines relationships between farmland size, chemical fertilizers and irrigation management, and maize and wheat yield in Mexico. We used agricultural census data to estimate the mean farmland areas and crop yields of 5.5 million farms and nine million agricultural plots in 2,455 Mexican municipalities. We also derived indices of socio-environmental and management factors to examine relationships with yield. Using multiple regression models, we found that although mean farmland area positively relates to maize and wheat yield, the relationships depend critically on the management contexts of chemical fertilizers and irrigation, which vary widely across farm size gradients. Smallholder yield gaps were associated with deficits in irrigation, rather than chemical inputs. Findings highlight the growing need for expanded irrigation access and/or water management assistance for smaller farms.     

Turbinaria ornata as an herbivory refuge for associate algae

Habitat associations are an integral part of coral reef community structure. Commonly, one organism lives in such close association within or near another that a spatial refuge occurs, whereby one of the organisms provides protection to the other. This is often the result of defenses of the host deterring an associate organism’s consumers. In Moorea, French Polynesia, the range and abundance of the brown macroalga, Turbinaria ornata, have increased drastically since 1980 such that dense aggregations of this macroalga are a dominant component of the backreef habitat. Turbinaria ornata is both mechanically and chemically defended from herbivores. Other species of macroalgae grow within aggregations of Turbinaria and may benefit from these defenses. This study investigates whether aggregations of Turbinaria create a refuge from herbivory for associate macroalgae. When Turbinaria aggregations were removed experimentally, there was a significant increase in the number of associate algal species. Moreover, an herbivory assay using the palatable local alga Acanthophora spicifera identified herbivory as the mechanism for lower diversity on bommies lacking Turbinaria aggregations. The local increase in algal richness due to the refuge from herbivory afforded by Turbinaria may be an important contribution to macroalgal and community dynamics on reefs in Moorea, French Polynesia.     

Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data

Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations.     

Transcending scale dependence in identifying habitat with resource selection functions

Multi-scale resource selection modeling is used to identify factors that limit species distributions across scales of space and time. This multi-scale nature of habitat suitability complicates the translation of inferences to single, spatial depictions of habitat required for conservation of species. We estimated resource selection functions (RSFs) across three scales for a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), with two objectives: (1) to infer the relative effects of two forms of anthropogenic disturbance (forestry and linear features) on woodland caribou distributions at multiple scales and (2) to estimate scale-integrated resource selection functions (SRSFs) that synthesize results across scales for management-oriented habitat suitability mapping. We found a previously undocumented scale-specific switch in woodland caribou response to two forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Caribou avoided forestry cut-blocks at broad scales according to first- and second-order RSFs and avoided linear features at fine scales according to third-order RSFs, corroborating predictions developed according to predator-mediated effects of each disturbance type. Additionally, a single SRSF validated as well as each of three single-scale RSFs when estimating habitat suitability across three different spatial scales of prediction. We demonstrate that a single SRSF can be applied to predict relative habitat suitability at both local and landscape scales in support of critical habitat identification and species recovery.