Sensitivity of two dispersion models (AERMOD and ISCST3) to input parameters for a rural ground-level area source

As of December 2006, the American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulatory Model with Plume Rise Model Enhancements (AERMOD-PRIME; hereafter AERMOD) replaced the Industrial Source Complex Short Term Version 3 (ISCST3) as the EPA-preferred regulatory model. The change from ISCST3 to AERMOD will affect Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) increment consumption as well as permit compliance in states where regulatory agencies limit property line concentrations using modeling analysis. Because of differences in model formulation and the treatment of terrain features, one cannot predict a priori whether ISCST3 or AERMOD will predict higher or lower pollutant concentrations downwind of a source. The objectives of this paper were to determine the sensitivity of AERMOD to various inputs and compare the highest downwind concentrations from a ground-level area source (GLAS) predicted by AERMOD to those predicted by ISCST3. Concentrations predicted using ISCST3 were sensitive to changes in wind speed, temperature, solar radiation (as it affects stability class), and mixing heights below 160 m. Surface roughness also affected downwind concentrations predicted by ISCST3. AERMOD was sensitive to changes in albedo, surface roughness, wind speed, temperature, and cloud cover. Bowen ratio did not affect the results from AERMOD. These results demonstrate AERMOD's sensitivity to small changes in wind speed and surface roughness. When AERMOD is used to determine property line concentrations, small changes in these variables may affect the distance within which concentration limits are exceeded by several hundred meters.     

The influence of sampling protocol on nonmethane hydrocarbon mixing ratios

The effect of sampling protocol on ambient air hydrocarbon mixing ratios was examined on eight sampling days in Los Angeles during 2007 and 2008. Four protocols, which were based on previously published multi-city urban hydrocarbon studies in the United States, were compared and differences were quantified. Whole air canister samples were collected and analyzed for nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Differing sampling protocols resulted in large differences in mixing ratios, up to an order of magnitude, for certain NMHCs on the same sampling day. However, the magnitude of the variability between NMHC levels obtained by the four protocols was not consistent throughout the eight sampling days. It was found that sampling time, followed by sampling location, had the greatest influence on the magnitude of the mixing ratio. Ratios between hydrocarbons, often used in urban studies to gain information on emission sources, also varied depending on the protocol used. Comparison of absolute NMHC mixing ratios collected in urban environments using differing sampling protocols should be made with care.     

Can Volunteers Collect Data that are Comparable to Professional Scientists? A Study of Variables Used in Monitoring the Outcomes of Ecosystem Rehabilitation

Having volunteers collect data can be a cost-effective strategy to complement or replace those collected by scientists. The quality of these data is essential where field-collected data are used to monitor progress against predetermined standards because they provide decision makers with confidence that choices they make will not cause more harm than good. The integrity of volunteer-collected data is often doubted. In this study, we made estimates of seven vegetation attributes and a composite measure of six of those seven, to simulate benchmark values. These attributes are routinely recorded as part of rehabilitation projects in Australia and elsewhere in the world. The degree of agreement in data collected by volunteers was compared with those recorded by professional scientists. Combined results showed that scientists collected data that was in closer agreement with benchmarks than those of volunteers, but when data collected by individuals were analyzed, some volunteers collected data that were in similar or closer agreement, than scientists. Both groups’ estimates were in closer agreement for particular attributes than others, suggesting that some attributes are more difficult to estimate than others, or that some are more subjective than others. There are a number of ways in which higher degrees of agreement could be achieved and introducing these will no doubt result in better, more effective programs, to monitor rehabilitation activities. Alternatively, less subjective measures should be sought when developing monitoring protocols. Quality assurance should be part of developing monitoring methods and explicitly budgeted for in project planning to prevent misleading declarations of rehabilitation success.     

The Ways of Wickedness: Analyzing Messiness with Messy Tools

The revelatory paper, “Dilemmas in the General Theory of Planning,” by Rittel and Webber (Policy Sci 4:155–169, 1973) has had great impact because it provides one example of an emergent consensus across many disciplines. Many “problems,” as addressed in real-world situations, involve elements that exceed the complexity of any known or hoped-for model, or are “wicked.” Many who encounter this work for the first time find that their concept of wicked problems aptly describes many environmental disputes. For those frustrated with the lack of progress in many areas of environmental protection, Rittel and Webber’s work suggested a powerful explanatory hypothesis: Complex environmental problems cannot be comprehended within any of the accepted disciplinary models available in the academy or in discourses on public interest and policy. What should we conclude about the future of social improvements, and about the possibilities for rational discourse leading to cooperative action, with respect to this huge number of pressing public, environmental problems? Can we find ways to address environmental problems that improves the ability of communities to respond creatively and rationally to them? I will argue that, while the Rittel-Webber critique requires us to abandon many of the assumptions associated with a positivistic view of science and its applications to policy analysis, it also points to a more productive direction for the future of policy analysis. I will introduce “boundary critique,” developed within Critical Systems Theory (CST), an approach that offers some reason for optimism in dealing with some aspects of wickedness.     

Living with nuclear power: Sense of place,proximity, and risk perceptions in local host communities

Previous research notes that sense of place may intensify, and that levels of public risk perception may decrease with proximity to an established hazardous or stigmatised site. In addition, the literature suggests that sense of place may act either to mediate or moderate community perceptions of risk in such localities. This study comprised a major household survey (n = 1326) and an interview study (n = 39) and was conducted close to the nuclear power stations at Oldbury and Hinkley Point, both in the UK. It investigated the roles of perceptions of place and hazard proximity in considering (a) perceptions of risk and (b) public attitudes towards the building of a new nuclear power station in the nearby area. In addition, a novel scale was developed to measure the perceived contribution of the nearby nuclear power station to sense of place. The results suggest first, that sense of place mediates (but does not moderate) perceptions of risk in very proximate communities, and second, that public attitudes to new build in communities situated very close to established nuclear sites may be largely dependent on the extent to which the existing facility is perceived to contribute towards sense of place. The implications of these results for existing theory are discussed.     

Accuracy assessment of land surface temperature retrievals from Landsat 7 ETM + in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica using iButton temperature loggers and weather station data

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica are the largest snow/ice-free regions on this vast continent, comprising 1 % of the land mass. Due to harsh environmental conditions, the valleys are bereft of any vegetation. Land surface temperature is a key determinate of microclimate and a driver for sensible and latent heat fluxes of the surface. The Dry Valleys have been the focus of ecological studies as they arguably provide the simplest trophic structure suitable for modelling. In this paper, we employ a validation method for land surface temperatures obtained from Landsat 7 ETM + imagery and compared with in situ land surface temperature data collected from four transects totalling 45 iButtons. A single meteorological station was used to obtain a better understanding of daily and seasonal cycles in land surface temperatures. Results show a good agreement between the iButton and the Landsat 7 ETM + product for clear sky cases. We conclude that Landsat 7 ETM + derived land surface temperatures can be used at broad spatial scales for ecological and meteorological research.     

Bridge building within the province of proactivity

The research questions posed in this study highlight the importance of valuing proactivity in both prompting an individual to engage in proactive behavior and encouraging the expression of that behavior. We integrate a variety of constructs from the proactivity literature to gain a deeper understanding of proactive behavior as it relates to proactive motivation and supervisory performance evaluations. First, we draw upon self‐determination theory, expectancy–value theory, and the recent integration of the proactive motivation literature to hypothesize that proactive behavior is predicted by the interaction of “can do” and “reason to” proactive motivational states. Second, on the basis of performance theory, we hypothesize that the relationship between proactive behavior and performance depends upon the extent to which the supervisor values proactivity. Specifically, we argue that supervisors with proactive personalities are more likely to value and reward subordinate proactive behavior than passive supervisors. Results provide support for both of our hypotheses. Interestingly, results show that proactive behavior did not result in negative consequences but rather that there was a cost (i.e., lower performance rating) for not taking charge for employees with proactive supervisors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform, triangular, and exponential random variables.     

Similarity at the major histocompatibility complex class II does not influence mating patterns in bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus)

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology - Consistent between-individual differences in behaviour, known as personality differences, are heritable and have consequences for individual survival and...