Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.     

Tracer Study In an Urban Valley

Results of a series of nighttime tracer experiments conducted during the Autumn of 1966 in the industrialized valley of Johnstown, Pa., are discussed. Quite atypical meteorology and dispersion occur within a classical drainage flow framework. An urban heat island effect is observed creating uniform temperature and wind structures within a layer of air flowing through the valley. Dispersion in the valley at night is comparable to that of neutral conditions over open country.     

Cesium isotope ratios as indicators of nuclear power plant operations

There are multiple paths by which radioactive cesium can reach the effluent from reactor operations. The radioactive ¹³⁵Cs/¹³⁷Cs ratios are controlled by these paths. In an effort to better understand the origin of this radiation, these ¹³⁵Cs/¹³⁷Cs ratios in effluents from three power reactor sites have been measured in offsite samples. These ratios are different from global fallout by up to six fold and as such cannot have a significant component from this source. A cesium ratio for a sample collected outside of the plant boundary provides integration over the operating life of the reactor. A sample collected inside the plant at any given time can be much different from this lifetime ratio. The measured cesium ratios vary significantly for the three reactors and indicate that the multiple paths have widely varying levels of contributions. There are too many ways these isotopes can fractionate to be useful for quantitative evaluations of operating parameters in an offsite sample, although it may be possible to obtain limited qualitative information for an onsite sample.     

Bioavailability, accumulation and effects of heavy metals in sediments with special reference to United Kingdom estuaries: a review

Using mainly United Kingdom estuaries as examples, various factors governing the bioavailability, bioaccumulation and biological effects of heavy metals in sediment-dominated estuaries are reviewed. Estuaries and metals primarily discussed include the Mersey (Hg, methylmercury; Pb, alkyllead), the Loughor (Cr, Sn), the Severn (Ag, Cd), the Fal (As, Cu, Sn, Zn), Poole Harbour (Cd, Hg, Se, tributyltin) and Southampton Water (tributyltin). Concentrations and bioavailabilities of metals in estuarine sediments depend on many different processes. Examples include (1) mobilisation of metals to the interstitial water and their chemical speciation, (2) transformation (e.g. methylation) of metals including As, Hg, Pb and Sn (3) the control exerted by major sediment components (e.g. oxides of Fe and organics) to which metals are preferentially bound, (4) competition between sediment metals (e.g. Cu and Ag; Zn and Cd) for uptake sites in organisms, and (5) the influence of bioturbation, salinity, redox or pH on these processes. Under field conditions, identification of dominant processes can be achieved by observing the goodness of fit between metal concentrations in ubiquitous deposit-feeding species and levels in various types of sediment extract over a wide spectrum of sediment types. Factors of more local importance are often indicated by the marked deviation of some points from otherwise excellent relationships. For example, points lying above the line relating tissue Sn concentrations in the clam Scrobicularia plana to those in 1 n HCl extracts of sediments were found to reflect the accumulation of tributyltin, a more readily bioavailable form of Sn. In the same species, unexpectedly high tissue-Cu concentrations were characteristic of very anoxic in sediments and tissue And As and Pb concentrations were suppressed in sediments having high concentrations of Fe oxides. Under field conditions, examples of deleterious effects on benthic organisms that can be attributed to specific metallic pollutants are comparatively rare. Effects of tributyltins from antifouling paints on oysters and neogastropods have been documented and their toxicity has undoubtedly led to environmental degradation in many UK estuaries and coastal areas. In estuaries contaminated with metal-mining wastes, the effects of Cu and Zn on species distribution can be observed, but they are generally less obvious than would be predicted from experimental data. Effects are ameliorated by the induction of metal tolerance mechanisms in some species and in others by the appearance of tolerant strains. The induction of metal detoxification systems involving the formation of granules or metal-binding proteins leads in some species to tissue concentrations that are orders of magnitude higher than normal. For example, high concentrations of Cd and Ag have been found in some species from the Severn Estuary, although there is no unequivocal evidence that either metal has caused deleterious effects on benthic populations. On the other hand, experimental studies with Ag, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg and Zn show that they are toxic to some species at environmentally realistic levels. Since pollutants rarely occur singly, it is likely that in many moderately contaminated estuaries metals contribute to the stress to organisms caused by substances requiring detoxification. There has been much speculation over the years concerning the biomagnification of metals with increasing trophic levels along food chains. Whilst animals having higher metal concentrations than their prey are sometimes found, the only consistent evidence of biomagnification concerns methylmercury. When estuarine birds are considered, there are relatively few instances in which deleterious effects can unequivocally be attributed to metals or their compounds. However, the Mersey bird kill was attributable to alkyllead pollution from industry. Among other organometals, methylmercury has proved toxic to birds but, so far, no evidence for the toxicity of tributyltin has been reported. However, the compound may have affected bird populations through its effects on the abundance of prey organisms, particularly estuarine molluscs. Of the inorganic forms of metals, Pb in the form of shot has caused problems in many areas and Cd, Hg and Se are suspected of causing toxic effects. There is little field evidence that birds have been affected by Ag, As, Cr, Cu or Zn individually. On the other hand, it is difficult to exclude the possibility that, additively, these metals may produce a significant effect. In part, the lack of evidence reflects the fact that relatively little research has been done. There is scope for more work on metals and organometals in estuarine birds, particularly with regard to their metabolism and their effects on juveniles and individuals subjected to stresses such as starvation.     

Modeling the costs and benefits of dam construction from a multidisciplinary perspective

Although the benefits of dam construction are numerous, particularly in the context of climate change and growing global demand for electricity, recent experience has shown that many dams have serious negative environmental, human, and political consequences. Despite an extensive literature documenting the benefits and costs of dams from a single disciplinary perspective, few studies have simultaneously evaluated the distribution of biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical implications of dams. To meet the simultaneous demands for water, energy, and environmental protection well into the future, a broader view of dams is needed. We thus propose a new tool for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of dam construction based on multi-objective planning techniques. The Integrative Dam Assessment Modeling (IDAM) tool is designed to integrate biophysical, socio-economic, and geopolitical perspectives into a single cost/benefit analysis of dam construction. Each of 27 different impacts of dam construction is evaluated both objectively (e.g., flood protection, as measured by RYI years) and subjectively (i.e., the valuation of said flood protection) by a team of decision-makers. By providing a visual representation of the various costs and benefits associated with two or more dams, the IDAM tool allows decision-makers to evaluate alternatives and to articulate priorities associated with a dam project, making the decision process about dams more informed and more transparent. For all of these reasons, we believe that the IDAM tool represents an important evolutionary step in dam evaluation.     

Another avenue of action: an examination of climate change countermovement industries’ use of PAC donations and their relationship to Congressional voting over time

The political mobilization of American business elites in the 1970s and 1980s has been well studied by political scientists. Environmental sociologists have explored how industries in this elite countermovement have organized to prevent environmental legislation. The literature often focuses on the efforts of this movement to shape public opinion on climate change. However, political scientists argue business elites are running several parallel strategies simultaneously in order to protect their interests. FEC data are utilized in multilevel logit models to examine how donations from industrial Political Action Committees (PACs) relate to Congressional representative’s environmental voting behavior over a 20-year period. Industries associated with the environmental countermovement have increasingly used PAC donations over time, and every additional $10,000 a representative received from countermovement industries significantly decreased odds of their taking the pro-environmental stance even when controlling for representatives’ demographics, districts, Congressional polarization and time-period.     

The Ways of Wickedness: Analyzing Messiness with Messy Tools

The revelatory paper, “Dilemmas in the General Theory of Planning,” by Rittel and Webber (Policy Sci 4:155–169, 1973) has had great impact because it provides one example of an emergent consensus across many disciplines. Many “problems,” as addressed in real-world situations, involve elements that exceed the complexity of any known or hoped-for model, or are “wicked.” Many who encounter this work for the first time find that their concept of wicked problems aptly describes many environmental disputes. For those frustrated with the lack of progress in many areas of environmental protection, Rittel and Webber’s work suggested a powerful explanatory hypothesis: Complex environmental problems cannot be comprehended within any of the accepted disciplinary models available in the academy or in discourses on public interest and policy. What should we conclude about the future of social improvements, and about the possibilities for rational discourse leading to cooperative action, with respect to this huge number of pressing public, environmental problems? Can we find ways to address environmental problems that improves the ability of communities to respond creatively and rationally to them? I will argue that, while the Rittel-Webber critique requires us to abandon many of the assumptions associated with a positivistic view of science and its applications to policy analysis, it also points to a more productive direction for the future of policy analysis. I will introduce “boundary critique,” developed within Critical Systems Theory (CST), an approach that offers some reason for optimism in dealing with some aspects of wickedness.     

In vitro effects of citrus oils against Mycobacterium tuberculosis and non-tuberculous Mycobacteria of clinical importance

We evaluated the in vitro activity of citrus oils against Mycobacterium tuberculosis and other non-tuberculous Mycobacterium species. Citrus essential oils were tested against a variety of Mycobacterium species and strains using the BACTEC radiometric growth system. Cold pressed terpeneless Valencia oil (CPT) was further tested using the Wayne model of in vitro latency.

Exposure of M. tuberculosis and M. bovis BCG to 0.025 % cold pressed terpeneless Valencia orange oil (CPT) resulted in a 3-log decrease in viable counts versus corresponding controls. Inhibition of various clinical isolates of the M. avium complex and M. abscessus ranged from 2.5 to 5.2-logs. Some species/strains were completely inhibited in the presence of CPT including one isolate each of the following: the M. avium complex, M. chelonae and M. avium subsp. paratuberculosis. CPT also inhibited the growth of BCG more than 99 % in an in vitro model of latency which mimics anaerobic dormancy thought to occur in vivo. The activity of CPT against drug-resistant strains of the M. avium complex and M. abscessus suggest that the mechanism of action for CPT is different than that of currently available drugs. Inhibition of latently adapted bacilli offers promise for treatment of latent infections of MTB. These results suggest that the antimycobacterial properties of CPT warrant further study to elucidate the specific mechanism of action and clarify the spectrum of activity.     

Can Volunteers Collect Data that are Comparable to Professional Scientists? A Study of Variables Used in Monitoring the Outcomes of Ecosystem Rehabilitation

Having volunteers collect data can be a cost-effective strategy to complement or replace those collected by scientists. The quality of these data is essential where field-collected data are used to monitor progress against predetermined standards because they provide decision makers with confidence that choices they make will not cause more harm than good. The integrity of volunteer-collected data is often doubted. In this study, we made estimates of seven vegetation attributes and a composite measure of six of those seven, to simulate benchmark values. These attributes are routinely recorded as part of rehabilitation projects in Australia and elsewhere in the world. The degree of agreement in data collected by volunteers was compared with those recorded by professional scientists. Combined results showed that scientists collected data that was in closer agreement with benchmarks than those of volunteers, but when data collected by individuals were analyzed, some volunteers collected data that were in similar or closer agreement, than scientists. Both groups’ estimates were in closer agreement for particular attributes than others, suggesting that some attributes are more difficult to estimate than others, or that some are more subjective than others. There are a number of ways in which higher degrees of agreement could be achieved and introducing these will no doubt result in better, more effective programs, to monitor rehabilitation activities. Alternatively, less subjective measures should be sought when developing monitoring protocols. Quality assurance should be part of developing monitoring methods and explicitly budgeted for in project planning to prevent misleading declarations of rehabilitation success.