Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.     

Mountain goat response to hydroelectric exploration in northwestern British Columbia

The behavioral responses of more than 800 mountain goats, comprised of 195 social groups, were recorded during hydroelectric exploration activities (primarily aircraft) in northwestern British Columbia. Four categories of overt response were recorded during case tests, ranging from maintenance activity to severe flight. More than 80 percent (n=667) of the observed goats elicited some form of behavioral stress-response, with 33 percent (n=265) displaying a severe flight response to local rock or plant cover. Multiple regression analysis inferred goat responses to be statistically independent of the time of year, type, and vertical orientation of disturbance and group size. As expected, significant correlations (p≤0.05) existed between distance of disturbance, geographic area, cover availability, and degree of awareness. Responses were stimulated primarily by auditory and secondarily by visual cues. Repeated aerial and ground follow-up surveys documented temporary range abandonment and changing observability indices (habitat use and activity patterns) associated with areas of intense exploration activity. The assessed data offer mitigation possibilities and enable formulation of management guidelines to lessen project impacts during future exploration, construction, and operation phases.     

Land development and employment creation on landed estates in the Northern Highlands

The landed estates may be divided into four groups according to land use and use intensity: crofting, sheep, sporting, mixed use. While sheep and mixed use estates have held sheep numbers constant, other estates have shown dramatic declines. All estates, and in particular sporting estates, have increased deer culls. Many sporting estates are supported by external private finance which makes land development unnecessary. Private enjoyment is an important ownership motivation on many estates. This, rather than lack of profitability or lack of finance, prevents development. However, significant employment creation can come only through extensive land developments beyond those on even the more productive estates. Such a strategy would require a development plan and a challenge to existing property rights.     

Characterisation of weathered hydrocarbon wastes at contaminated sites by GC-simulated distillation and nitrous oxide chemical ionisation GC-MS, with implications for bioremediation

An extended analytical characterisation of weathered hydrocarbons isolated from historically contaminated sites in Alberta is presented. The characterisation of soil extracts, chromatographically separated into component classes, by GC-simulated distillation and nitrous oxide (N2O) chemical ionisation (CI) GC-MS provides new insights into the composition of the residual oil at these sites, the principal partition medium for risk critical components. The combined polar and asphaltene content of representative soil extracts ranged from 40% w/w to 70% w/w of the oils encountered. An abundance of C14-C22 2-4 ring alicyclics, alkylbenzenes and benzocycloparaffins is prevalent within the saturate fractions of site soils. Implications for the partitioning of risk critical compounds at sites with weathered hydrocarbons and the practical application of bioremediation technologies are discussed.     

On the Design of Computer-Based Models for Integrated Environmental Science

The current research agenda in environmental science is dominated by calls to integrate science and policy to better understand and manage links between social (human) and natural (nonhuman) processes. Freshwater resource management is one area where such calls can be heard. Designing computer-based models for integrated environmental science poses special challenges to the research community. At present it is not clear whether such tools, or their outputs, receive much practical policy or planning application. It is argued that this is a result of (1) a lack of appreciation within the research modeling community of the characteristics of different decision-making processes including policy, planning, and (2) participation, (3) a lack of appreciation of the characteristics of different decision-making contexts, (4) the technical difficulties in implementing the necessary support tool functionality, and (5) the socio-technical demands of designing tools to be of practical use. This article presents a critical synthesis of ideas from each of these areas and interprets them in terms of design requirements for computer-based models being developed to provide scientific information support for policy and planning. Illustrative examples are given from the field of freshwater resources management. Although computer-based diagramming and modeling tools can facilitate processes of dialogue, they lack adequate simulation capabilities. Component-based models and modeling frameworks provide such functionality and may be suited to supporting problematic or messy decision contexts. However, significant technical (implementation) and socio-technical (use) challenges need to be addressed before such ambition can be realized.     

Ecological Conservation Through Aesthetic Landscape Planning: A Case Study of the Lower Wisconsin State Riverway

A consequence of expanding residential development into rural areas is the potential alteration of ecological communities. Certain novel land-use policies seek practical solutions by accommodating social needs for housing while conserving biodiversity. This study investigates whether regulations designed to protect the aesthetic characteristics of a river corridor simultaneously mitigate negative effects of development on avian biodiversity, despite the absence of explicit conservation objectives. Using housing data from the US Census (1990 and 2000) and the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (1987–2000), we examined changes in housing density, avian communities, and the relationship between these two variables in a location that has adopted aesthetic landscape planning, the Lower Wisconsin State Riverway. We found that overall species diversity increased in the Riverway, but remained constant in reference areas, although the relative increase in housing density in the two areas did not differ. We also found that omnivore populations decreased in the Riverway and increased in reference sites. On the whole, our study provides preliminary evidence that aesthetic landscape planning, such as employed in the Lower Wisconsin State Riverway, might constitute a politically viable approach to conserve ecological resources.     

RAINGAGE NETWORK DESIGN USING NEXRAD PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: A general framework is proposed for using precipitation estimates from NEXRAD weather radars in raingage network design. NEXRAD precipitation products are used to represent space time rainfall fields, which can be sampled by hypothetical raingage networks. A stochastic model is used to simulate gage observations based on the areal average precipitation for radar grid cells. The stochastic model accounts for subgrid variability of precipitation within the cell and gage measurement errors. The approach is ideally suited to raingage network design in regions with strong climatic variations in rainfall where conventional methods are sometimes lacking. A case study example involving the estimation of areal average precipitation for catchments in the Catskill Mountains illustrates the approach. The case study shows how the simulation approach can be used to quantify the effects of gage density, basin size, spatial variation of precipitation, and gage measurement error, on network estimates of areal average precipitation. Although the quality of NEXRAD precipitation products imposes limitations on their use in network design, weather radars can provide valuable information for empirical assessment of rain‐gage network estimation errors. Still, the biggest challenge in quantifying estimation errors is understanding subgrid spatial variability. The results from the case study show that the spatial correlation of precipitation at subgrid scales (4 km and less) is difficult to quantify, especially for short sampling durations. Network estimation errors for hourly precipitation are extremely sensitive to the uncertainty in subgrid spatial variability, although for storm total accumulation, they are much less sensitive.     

MODELING FRAMEWORK FOR MANAGING COPPER RUNOFF IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed for managing copper runoff in urban watersheds that incorporates water quality characterization, watershed land use areas, hydrologic data, a statistical simulator, a biotic ligand binding model to characterize acute toxicity, and a statistical method for setting a watershed specific copper loading. The modeling framework is driven by export coefficients derived from water quality parameters and hydrologic inputs measured in an urban watershed's storm water system. This framework was applied to a watershed containing a copper roof built in 1992. A series of simulations was run to predict the change in receiving stream water chemistry caused by roof aging and to determine the maximum copper loading (at the 99 percent confidence level) a watershed could accept without causing acute toxicity in the receiving stream. Forecasting the amount of copper flux responsible for exceeding the assimilation capacity of a watershed can be directly related to maximum copper loadings responsible for causing toxicity in the receiving streams. The framework developed in this study can be used to evaluate copper utilization in urban watersheds.