Population inertia and its sensitivity to changes in vital rates and population structure

Because the (st)age structure of a population may rarely be stable, studies of transient population dynamics and population momentum are becoming ever more popular. Yet, studies of "population momentum" are restricted in the sense that they describe the inertia of population size resulting from a demographic transition to the stationary population growth rate. Although rarely mentioned, inertia in population size is a general phenomenon and can be produced by any demographic transition or perturbation. Because population size is of central importance in demography, conservation, and management, formulas relating the sensitivity of population inertia to changes in underlying vital rates and population structure could provide much-needed insight into the dynamics of populations with unstable (st)age structure. Here, we derive such formulas, which are readily computable, and provide examples of their potential use in studies of life history and applied arenas of population study.     

Impacts of mussel dredging on sediment phosphorus dynamics in a eutrophic Danish fjord

Effects of mussel dredging on sediment metabolism (oxygen uptake and sulfate reduction rates) and phosphorus dynamics (flux across sediment-water interface and sequential extraction) were examined in Limfjorden (Denmark) during spring (May) and summer (August). Sediment samples were taken during mussel dredging and in addition an experimental simulation of the dredging was performed to investigate short-term changes in phosphorus (P) dynamics. Iron-bound P was reduced by up to 2/3 in the surface layer in the dredging track (from 31 to 8?mmol?P?m^?2), whereas the dissolved P-pools and less reactive particulate pools were not affected by dredging. Sediment oxygen consumption was enhanced immediately after dredging, but returned to the initial level after 4 days (20–40?mmol?m^?2?d^?1). The enhanced consumption was attributed to reoxidation of reduced compounds released during dredging. Sulfate reduction rates were high in the area (13–15?mmol?m^?2?d^?1) and sulfides competed with P for oxidized iron resulting in low iron-bound pools in the area (<4% of total P pools). Sulfate reduction rates were stimulated by the resuspension of sediments, especially in August, where a subsurface maximum was found, possibly due to a mixing of labile organic matter into these layers. In contrast sulfate reduction rates were reduced in the dredging track due to removal of labile organic matter from the surface layers. The loss of P during dredging was to some extent counteracted by regeneration of iron-bound P pools in the surface layers. The release of P due to mussel dredging was estimated to be in the same order of magnitude as the annual loading from the catchments and point sources to Limfjorden.     

Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run

Genuine Savings (GS) have been much used in recent years as an indicator of a country's sustainability. According to some theorists (e.g. Arrow et al., 2012), under certain conditions a country with a positive level of GS should experience non-declining future utility, given the assumption of unlimited substitutability among all forms of capital (sometimes called “weak” sustainability). This paper reports the first very long-run tests of GS (also called comprehensive investment or adjusted net savings) as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being. We assemble data for British capital back to 1765, and construct several net investment measures which are used as indicators of two alternative measures of future well-being: consumption per capita and real wages. An allowance for a “value of time” due to exogenous technological progress is included in some GS measures, and we demonstrate the importance of this measure and the choice of discount rate over the very long-run. On the whole, our results do not reject the postulated relationship between GS and future well-being, and show GS can be a forward looking indicator of future well-being for periods of up to 100 years.     

A method for quantifying bias in modeled concentrations and source impacts for secondary particulate matter

A method for quantifying source impacts for secondary PM_2.5 species is derived. The method provides estimates of bias in modeled concentrations. Adjusted concentrations match corresponding observations at monitored locations. Sources impacts on secondary species are estimated over the US for 20 sources. Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) estimates of sulfates, nitrates, ammonium, and organic carbon are highly influenced by uncertainties in modeled secondary formation processes, such as chemical mechanisms, volatilization, and condensation rates. These compounds constitute the majority of PM_2.5 mass, and reducing bias in estimated concentrations has benefits for policy measures and epidemiological studies. In this work, a method for adjusting source impacts on secondary species is developed that provides estimates of source contributions and reduces bias in modeled concentrations compared to observations. The bias correction adjusts concentrations and source impacts based on the difference between modeled concentrations and observations while taking into account uncertainties at the location of interest; and it is applied both spatially and temporally. We apply the method over the US for 2006. The mean bias for initial CMAQ concentrations compared to observations is −0.28 (OC), 0.11 (NO₃), 0.05 (NH₄), and −0.08 (SO₄). The normalized mean bias in modeled concentrations compared to observations was effectively zero for OC, NO₃, NH₄, and SO₄ after applying the secondary bias correction. 10-fold cross-validation was conducted to determine the performance of the spatial application of the bias correction. Cross-validation performance was favorable; correlation coefficients were greater than 0.69 for all species when comparing observations and concentrations based on kriged correction factors. The methods presented here address model uncertainties by improving simulated concentrations and source impacts of secondary particulate matter through data assimilation. Secondary-adjusted concentrations and source impacts from 20 emissions sources are generated for 2006 over continental US.     

Simulation of Combined Best Management Practices and Low Impact Development for Sustainable Stormwater Management1

Damodaram, Chandana, Marcio H. Giacomoni, C. Prakash Khedun, Hillary Holmes, Andrea Ryan, William Saour, and Emily M. Zechman, 2010. Simulation of Combined Best Management Practices and Low Impact Development for Sustainable Stormwater Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00462.x Abstract: Urbanization causes increased stormwater runoff volumes, leading to erosion, flooding, and the degradation of instream ecosystem health. Although Best Management Practices (BMPs) are used widely as a means for controlling flood runoff events, Low Impact Development (LID) options have been proposed as an alternative approach to better mimic the natural flow regime by using decentralized designs to control stormwater runoff at the source, rather than at a centralized location in the watershed. For highly urbanized areas, LID practices such as rainwater harvesting, green roofs, and permeable pavements can be used to retrofit existing infrastructure and reduce runoff volumes and peak flows. This paper describes a modeling approach to incorporate these LID practices in an existing hydrologic model to estimate the effects of LID choices on streamflow. The modeling approach has been applied to a watershed located on the campus of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas, to predict the stormwater reductions resulting from retrofitting existing infrastructure with LID technologies. Results demonstrate that use of these LID practices yield significant stormwater control for small events and less control for flood events. A combined BMP-LID approach is tested for runoff control for both flood and frequent rainfall events.     

Effect of solution pH on SO2, NO(x), and Hg removal from simulated coal combustion flue gas in an oxidant-enhanced wet scrubber

This paper presents a study on the simultaneous removal of SO2, NO(x) and Hg (both Hg0 and Hg2+) from a simulated flue gas by oxidant injection in a bench-simulated wet limestone scrubber for a wide range of slurry pH. The slurry pH strongly influenced the chemical mechanism in the scrubber and, therefore, affected pollutant removal. This paper also examines the potential ClO2(gas) reemission from a developed multipollutant scrubber at different slurry pHs. To better understand the chemical mechanisms at each slurry pH and to apply a mass balance to the process, detailed product ion analyses were performed for all experiments. Ion analysis covered three different chlorine species (chlorite, chloride, chlorate), sulfate, nitrite and nitrate. Different NO(x) removal efficiencies and mechanisms were found in acidic and alkaline pHs in the multipollutant scrubber. The acidic solution was favorable for NO and Hg0 oxidation, but increasing the slurry pH above 7.0 was disadvantageous for NO and Hg oxidation/removal. However the rate of NO(x) absorption (by percentage) was higher for the alkaline solution.     

Hospital admissions due to diseases of arteries and veins peaked at physiological equivalent temperature −10 to 10 °C in Germany in 2009–2011

We aimed to understand relationships of the weather as biometeorological and hospital admissions due to diseases of arteries and veins by subtypes, which have been scarcely studied, in a national setting in recent years. This is an ecological study. Ten percent of daily hospital admissions from the included hospitals (n?=?1,618) across Germany that were available between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2011 (n?=?5,235,600) were extracted from Statistisches Bundesamt, Germany. We identified I70-I79 Diseases of arteries, arterioles and capillaries and I80-I89 Diseases of veins, lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes by International Classification of Diseases version 10 as the study outcomes. Daily weather data from 64 weather stations that covered 13 German states including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, radiation flux and vapour pressure were obtained and generated into physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). Two-way fractional-polynomial prediction was plotted with 95 % confidence intervals. For most of the subtypes from diseases of arteries and veins, hospital admissions slightly peaked in spring and dropped when PET was at 10 °C. There were no other large differences across 12 months. Admissions of peripheral vascular diseases, arterial embolism and thrombosis, phlebitis and thrombophlebitis, oesophageal varices and nonspecific lymphadenitis peaked when PET was between 0 and ?10 °C, while others peaked when PET was between 0 and 10 °C. More medical resources could have been needed on days when PETs were at ?10 to 10 °C than on other days. Adaptation to such weather change for health professionals and the general public would seem to be imperative.