Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sea-level rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.     

Cesium isotope ratios as indicators of nuclear power plant operations

There are multiple paths by which radioactive cesium can reach the effluent from reactor operations. The radioactive ¹³⁵Cs/¹³⁷Cs ratios are controlled by these paths. In an effort to better understand the origin of this radiation, these ¹³⁵Cs/¹³⁷Cs ratios in effluents from three power reactor sites have been measured in offsite samples. These ratios are different from global fallout by up to six fold and as such cannot have a significant component from this source. A cesium ratio for a sample collected outside of the plant boundary provides integration over the operating life of the reactor. A sample collected inside the plant at any given time can be much different from this lifetime ratio. The measured cesium ratios vary significantly for the three reactors and indicate that the multiple paths have widely varying levels of contributions. There are too many ways these isotopes can fractionate to be useful for quantitative evaluations of operating parameters in an offsite sample, although it may be possible to obtain limited qualitative information for an onsite sample.     

WEST AFRICA: VOLTA DISCHARGE DATA QUALITY ASSESSMENT AND USE1

ABSTRACT: Water resource management in West Africa is often a complicated process due to inadequate resources, climatic extremes, and insufficient hydrological information. Insufficient data hinder sustainable watershed management practices, one of the top priorities in the Volta River Basin. This research properly fills in missing data by modeling the hydrological distribution in the Volta River Basin. On average, discharge gages across the basin are missing 20 percent of their monthly data over 20 years. Two methods were used to supplement missing data: a statistically linear model and a conceptual hydrological model. A linear equation, developed from the regression of precipitation and runoff, was used to evaluate the quality of existing data. The hydrological model separates the system into root and groundwater zones. Measured values were used to calibrate the hydrological model and to validate the statistical model. The quality of existing data was analyzed and organized for usability. Accuracy of the hydrological model was also evaluated for its effectiveness using R² and standard error. It was found that the hydrological model was an improvement from the linear model on a monthly basis; R² values improved by as much as 0.5 and monthly error decreased. Monthly predictions of the hydrological model were used to fill gaps of measured data sets.     

Tourist Support for Marine Protection in Nha Trang,Viet Nam

Environmental planners often propose tourism as a means of financing programmes to protect significant environmental areas. Surveys of tourists can provide useful information about the significance of environmental problems, trade-offs among policy objectives, willingness to pay (WTP) for protection programmes and preferences for different payment mechanisms. In Khanh Hoa Province, the provincial People's Committee, the Ministry of Fisheries and the World Conservation Union are working to implement Viet Nam's first marine protected area (MPA) in Nha Trang Bay. This paper reports the results of a survey of local and other Vietnamese and foreign tourists to islands that will be included in the MPA. The majority of respondents thought rubbish on the beaches, water pollution and vendors on beaches were problems and that the MPA was a good idea. Foreign tourists were significantly more likely to perceive environmental problems than were Vietnamese tourists, and persons who agreed there were environmental problems were significantly more likely to support the concept of an MPA, despite the potential for possible economic effects with distributive consequences. WTP for protection was modest and positively correlated with education and income. Although foreign tourists were on average willing to pay more, a larger proportion of Vietnamese tourists were willing to pay some amount to support the MPA. Analyses indicate that changes in income and education expected with economic development will increase both awareness of problems and WTP for protection. The results of this analysis are both encouraging and cautionary. The need for an MPA is clearly recognized by most tourists, and most tourists are willing to pay small fees to support the MPA. Given that education has significant impacts on both perceptions of problems and WTP, educational programmes may be an effective strategy for managing the competing objectives of protection and use.     

Aggregating the benefits of environmental improvements: distance-decay functions for use and non-use values

One of the main problems in using environmental cost-benefit analysis is deciding on the relevant population: whose benefits should we count? This is important since aggregate benefits depend on both per-person benefit and the number of beneficiaries. Yet this latter term is often hard to evaluate. Distance-decay functions are one way of addressing this problem. In this paper, we present estimates of distance-decay functions for a particular environmental improvement, namely a reduction in low flow problems on the River Mimram in Southern England. We do this both for users and non-users, in the context of a contingent valuation study of the benefits of improving low flow conditions. We test whether distance-decay effects for mean Willingness to Pay are stronger for a single environmental good (the River Mimram, in this case) than for a more inclusive set (here, all rivers in Thames region which suffer from low flow problems). Finally, we explore the impact on part-whole bias, in terms of the relationship between WTP for an individual site and WTP for a more inclusive group of sites, of allowing for distance-decay effects.