Polynomial Surrogates for Open-Channel Flows in Random Steady State

Assessing epistemic uncertainties is considered as a milestone for improving numerical predictions of a dynamical system. In hydrodynamics, uncertainties in input parameters translate into uncertainties in simulated water levels through the shallow water equations. We investigate the ability of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) surrogate to evaluate the probabilistic features of water level simulated by a 1-D hydraulic model (MASCARET) with the same accuracy as a classical Monte Carlo method but at a reduced computational cost. This study highlights that the water level probability density function and covariance matrix are better estimated with the polynomial surrogate model than with a Monte Carlo approach on the forward model given a limited budget of MASCARET evaluations. The gPC-surrogate performance is first assessed on an idealized channel with uniform geometry and then applied on the more realistic case of the Garonne River (France) for which a global sensitivity analysis using sparse least-angle regression was performed to reduce the size of the stochastic problem. For both cases, Galerkin projection approximation coupled to Gaussian quadrature that involves a limited number of forward model evaluations is compared with least-square regression for computing the coefficients when the surrogate is parameterized with respect to the local friction coefficient and the upstream discharge. The results showed that a gPC-surrogate with total polynomial degree equal to 6 requiring 49 forward model evaluations is sufficient to represent the water level distribution (in the sense of the \(\ell _2\) norm), the probability density function and the water level covariance matrix for further use in the framework of data assimilation. In locations where the flow dynamics is more complex due to bathymetry, a higher polynomial degree is needed to retrieve the water level distribution. The use of a surrogate is thus a promising strategy for uncertainty quantification studies in open-channel flows and should be extended to unsteady flows. It also paves the way toward cost-effective ensemble-based data assimilation for flood forecasting and water resource management.     

A new attachment device for deployment of monitoring equipment in estuaries and other high-energy environments

Biomonitoring is an important component of estuarine research and monitoring programs because living organisms integrate biological, chemical, and physical conditions over time. The deployment of biomonitoring devices in ecosystems that are subject to changes in water level and flow can be very challenging. This paper describes a new device, which facilitates such applications such as the deployment of periphytometers. The device is designed to encircle posts, poles, or pilings, such as channel markers common in many waterways. This device has been evaluated and approved for use by the US Coast Guard, needed for attachment to navigational aids. It allows attachment of monitoring devices requiring in situ deployment at fixed water depths in systems with dynamic water levels or velocities while minimizing the potential for shading, damage, theft, or poor long-term performance.     

Importance of public relations in recycling strategies: principles and case studies

The separate collection of waste, and especially of recyclables with specific collection systems, would not be possible without the involvement of the users. Apart from the physical installations such as collection containers, collection points, etc., the motivation of the users is an essential component. Motivation can be reinforced through public relations work. In addition to the underlying technical considerations, this paper describes the difference between communication in general and public relations and specifically examines public involvement in recycling. Through the use of examples, we look at the targeted users and typical media employed. Furthermore, we analyzes the development of public involvement. The examples show that public relations for recycling strategies relies to a great extent on attitudes, habits, and access to the target group. Thus, standardized procedures cannot be developed. For these reasons, public relation activities must be planned carefully and professionally and include an analysis of the target group, choice of media, and verification of success.     

Exporting dams: China's hydropower industry goes global

In line with China's "going out" strategy, China's dam industry has in recent years significantly expanded its involvement in overseas markets. The Chinese Export-Import Bank and other Chinese financial institutions, state-owned enterprises, and private firms are now involved in at least 93 major dam projects overseas. The Chinese government sees the new global role played by China's dam industry as a "win-win" situation for China and host countries involved. But evidence from project sites such as the Merowe Dam in Sudan demonstrates that these dams have unrecognized social and environmental costs for host communities. Chinese dam builders have yet to adopt internationally accepted social and environmental standards for large infrastructure development that can assure these costs are adequately taken into account. But the Chinese government is becoming increasingly aware of the challenge and the necessity of promoting environmentally and socially sound investments overseas.     

Multilevel water,biodiversity and climate adaptation governance: evaluating adaptive management in Lesotho

In many cases in which climate change affects natural resources, impacts are uncertain and adaptation to climate change often involves collective action problems at the local level, which are embedded in multilevel governance regimes. Adaptive management (AM) is an emerging approach to deal with such uncertainty and complexity by promoting multilevel institutions that are robust to change and able to learn. Much of the literature evaluating AM in multilevel governance regimes, however, focuses only on the adherence to certain structural features said to make AM successful, leaving aside the question whether AM actually produces desired outcomes. This paper evaluates AM in multilevel regimes also in terms of the outcomes they produce. To this end, we first apply the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) in order to describe three multilevel regimes in Lesotho. For each regime we then observe whether it adheres to the structure features of AM. Finally, we evaluate the extent to which the outcomes, natural resource management projects, are conducive to Ostrom's (1990) ‘design principles’ for sustainable common-pool resource management. We find that, though no ideal ‘adaptive regime’ is found in Lesotho, the results confirm the AM hypotheses that decentralised decision-making, open information sources, and plurality of user interests lead to improved outcomes. Conversely, elements of the climate regime are found not to be adaptive. Our findings also confirm the appropriateness of AM as a governance approach to climate adaptation.     

Sensitivity of amounts and distribution of tropical forest carbon credits depending on baseline rules

One of the largest sources of global greenhouse gas emissions can be addressed through conservation of tropical forests by channeling funds to developing countries at a cost-savings for developed countries. However, questions remain to be resolved in negotiating a system for including reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in a post-Kyoto climate treaty. The approach to determine national baselines, or reference levels, for quantifying REDD has emerged as central to negotiations over a REDD mechanism in a post-Kyoto policy framework. The baseline approach is critical to the success of a REDD mechanism because it affects the quantity, credibility, and equity of credits generated from efforts to reduce forest carbon emissions. We compared outcomes of seven proposed baseline approaches as a function of country circumstances, using a retrospective analysis of FAO-FRA data on forest carbon emissions from deforestation. Depending upon the baseline approach used, the total credited emissions avoided ranged over two orders of magnitude for the same quantity of actual emissions reductions. There was also a wide range in the relative distribution of credits generated among the five country types we identified. Outcomes were especially variable for countries with high remaining forest and low rates of deforestation (HFLD). We suggest that the most credible approaches measure emissions avoided with respect to a business-as-usual baseline scenario linked to historic emissions data, and allow limited adjustments based on forest carbon stocks.