Mechanisms and impacts of an incentive-based conservation program with evidence from a randomized control trial

Conservation science needs more high-quality impact evaluations, especially ones that explore mechanisms of success or failure. Randomized control trials (RCTs) provide particularly robust evidence of the effectiveness of interventions (although they have been criticized as reductionist and unable to provide insights into mechanisms), but there have been few such experiments investigating conservation at the landscape scale. We explored the impact of Watershared, an incentive-based conservation program in the Bolivian Andes, with one of the few RCTs of landscape-scale conservation in existence. There is strong interest in such incentive-based conservation approaches as some argue they can avoid negative social impacts sometimes associated with protected areas. We focused on social and environmental outcomes based on responses from a household survey in 129 communities randomly allocated to control or treatment (conducted both at the baseline in 2010 and repeated in 2015–2016). We controlled for incomplete program uptake by combining standard RCT analysis with matching methods and investigated mechanisms by exploring intermediate and ultimate outcomes according to the underlying theory of change. Previous analyses, focused on single biophysical outcomes, showed that over its first 5 years Watershared did not slow deforestation or improve water quality at the landscape scale. We found that Watershared influenced some outcomes measured using the survey, but the effects were complex, and some were unexpected. We thus demonstrated how RCTs can provide insights into the pathways of impact, as well as whether an intervention has impact. This paper, one of the first registered reports in conservation science, demonstrates how preregistration can help make complex research designs more transparent, avoid cherry picking, and reduce publication bias.     

Forecasting the Probability of Future Groundwater Levels Declining Below Specified Low Thresholds in the Conterminous U.S.

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater‐level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness‐of‐fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month‐to‐month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low‐threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic‐forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.     

Air quality assessment of benzo(a)pyrene from asphalt plant operation

A study has been carried out to assess the contribution of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) from asphalt plant operation, utilising Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) as a marker for PAHs, to the background air concentration around asphalt plants in the UK. The purpose behind this assessment was to determine whether the use of published BaP emission factors based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methodology is appropriate in the context of the UK, especially as the EPA methodology does not give BaP emission factors for all activities. The study also aimed to improve the overall understanding of BaP emissions from asphalt plants in the UK, and determine whether site location and operation is likely to influence the contribution of PAHs to ambient air quality. In order to establish whether the use of US EPA emissions factors is appropriate, the study has compared the BaP emissions measured and calculated emissions rates from two UK sites with those estimated using US EPA emission factors. A dispersion modelling exercise was carried out to show the BaP contribution to ambient air around each site. This study showed that, as the US EPA methodology does not provide factors for all emission sources on asphalt plants, their use may give rise to over- or under-estimations, particularly where sources of BaP are temperature dependent. However, the contribution of both the estimated and measured BaP concentrations to environmental concentration were low, averaging about 0.05 ng m(-3) at the boundary of the sites, which is well below the UK BaP assessment threshold of 0.25 ng m(-3). Therefore, BaP concentrations, and hence PAH concentrations, from similar asphalt plant operations are unlikely to contribute negatively to ambient air quality.     

Complementing institutional with localised strategies for climate change adaptation: a South-North comparison

Climate change and disasters pose a serious risk to sustainable development. In the South, local coping strategies are an important element of adaptation to climate and disaster risk. Such strategies have emerged because of the limited assistance provided by urban actors and associated social security and governance systems. In the North, in contrast, local coping strategies are comparatively poorly developed. However, the extent of the changing climatic conditions is also reducing the capacity of Northern institutions to deal with climatic extremes and variability, which emphasises the need for more local-level engagement in the North. This paper analyses the differences in local and institutional responses to climate change and disasters in a Southern and a Northern city (San Salvador, El Salvador, and Manchester, United Kingdom, respectively), and highlights how the lessons learned might be translated into an improved distributed governance system; that is, an 'integrated engagement model', where local and institutionalised responses support rather than hinder each other, as is currently the case.     

Idle Emissions from Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles: Review and Recent Data

Abstract

Heavy-duty diesel vehicle idling consumes fuel and reduces atmospheric quality, but its restriction cannot simply be proscribed, because cab heat or air-conditioning provides essential driver comfort. A comprehensive tailpipe emissions database to describe idling impacts is not yet available. This paper presents a substantial data set that incorporates results from the West Virginia University transient engine test cell, the E-55/59 Study and the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study. It covered 75 heavy-duty diesel engines and trucks, which were divided into two groups: vehicles with mechanical fuel injection (MFI) and vehicles with electronic fuel injection (EFI). Idle emissions of CO, hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO₂) have been reported. Idle CO₂ emissions allowed the projection of fuel consumption during idling. Test-to-test variations were observed for repeat idle tests on the same vehicle because of measurement variation, accessory loads, and ambient conditions. Vehicles fitted with EFI, on average, emitted [~20 g/hr of CO, 6 g/hr of HC, 86 g/hr of NO_x, 1 g/hr of PM, and 4636 g/hr of CO₂ during idle. MFI equipped vehicles emitted ~35 g/hr of CO, 23 g/hr of HC, 48 g/hr of NO_x, 4 g/hr of PM, and 4484 g/hr of CO₂, on average, during idle. Vehicles with EFI emitted less idleCO, HC, and PM, which could be attributed to the efficient combustion and superior fuel atomization in EFI systems. Idle NO_x, however, increased with EFI, which corresponds with the advancing of timing to improve idle combustion. Fuel injection management did not have any effect on CO₂ and, hence, fuel consumption. Use of air conditioning without increasing engine speed increased idle CO₂, NO_x, PM, HC, and fuel consumption by 25% on average. When the engine speed was elevated from 600 to 1100 revolutions per minute, CO₂ and NO_x emissions and fuel consumption increased by >150%, whereas PM and HC emissions increased by ~100% and 70%, respectively. Six Detroit Diesel Corp. (DDC) Series 60 engines in engine test cell were found to emit less CO, NO_x, and PM emissions and consumed fuel at only 75%of the level found in the chassis dynamometer data. This is because fan and compressor loads were absent in the engine test cell.     

Effect of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus (Glomus caledonium) on the accumulation and metabolism of atrazine in maize (Zea mays L.) and atrazine dissipation in soil

Effects of an arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus (Glomus caledonium) on accumulation and metabolism of atrazine in maize grown in soil contaminated with different concentrations of atrazine were investigated in a series of pot experiments. Roots of mycorrhizal plants accumulated more atrazine than non-mycorrhizal roots. In contrast, atrazine accumulation in shoot decreased in mycorrhizal compared with non-mycorrhizal plants. No atrazine derivatives were detected in the soil, either with or without mycorrhizal colonization. However, atrazine metabolites, deethylatrazine (DEA) and deisopropylatrazine (DIA), were detected in plant roots and the AM colonization enhanced the metabolism. After plant harvest atrazine concentrations decreased markedly in the soils compared to the initial concentrations. The decreases were the most in rhizosphere soil and then near-rhizosphere soil and the least in bulk soil. Mycorrhizal treatment enhanced atrazine dissipation in the near-rhizosphere and bulk soils irrespective of atrazine application rates.     

Development of molecular marker source profiles for emissions from on-road gasoline and diesel vehicle fleets

As part of the Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study, relatively large fleets of gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles were tested on a chassis dynamometer to develop chemical source profiles for source attribution of atmospheric particulate matter in California's South Coast Air Basin. Gasoline vehicles were tested in cold-start and warm-start conditions, and diesel vehicles were tested through several driving cycles. Tailpipe emissions of particulate matter were analyzed for organic tracer compounds, including hopanes, steranes, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Large intervehicle variation was seen in emission rate and composition, and results were averaged to examine the impacts of vehicle ages, weight classes, and driving cycles on the variation. Average profiles, weighted by mass emission rate, had much lower uncertainty than that associated with intervehicle variation. Mass emission rates and elemental carbon/organic carbon (EC/OC) ratios for gasoline vehicle age classes were influenced most by use of cold-start or warm-start driving cycle (factor of 2-7). Individual smoker vehicles had a large range of mass and EC/OC (factors of 40 and 625, respectively). Gasoline vehicle age averages, data on vehicle ages and miles traveled in the area, and several assumptions about smoker contributions were used to create emissions profiles representative of on-road vehicle fleets in the Los Angeles area in 2001. In the representative gasoline fleet profiles, variation was further reduced, with cold-start or warm-start and the representation of smoker vehicles making a difference of approximately a factor of two in mass emission rate and EC/OC. Diesel vehicle profiles were created on the basis of vehicle age, weight class, and driving cycle. Mass emission rate and EC/OC for diesel averages were influenced by vehicle age (factor of 2-5), weight class (factor of 2-7), and driving cycle (factor of 10-20). Absolute and relative emissions of molecular marker compounds showed levels of variation similar to those of mass and EC/OC.     

Design of a Leaching Test Framework for Coal Fly Ash Accounting for Environmental Conditions

Fly ash from coal combustion contains trace elements which, on disposal or utilisation, may leach out, and therefore be a potential environmental hazard. Environmental conditions have a great impact on the mobility of fly ash constituents as well as the physical and chemical properties of the fly ash. Existing standard leaching methods have been shown to be inadequate by not representing possible disposal or utilisation scenarios. These tests are often criticised on the grounds that the results estimated are not reliable as they are not able to be extrapolated to the application scenario. In order to simulate leaching behaviour of fly ash in different environmental conditions and to reduce deviation between measurements in the fields and the laboratories, it is vital to study sensitivity of the fly ash constituents of interest to major factors controlling leachability. pH, liquid-to-solid ratio, leaching time, leachant type and redox potential are parameters affecting stability of elements in the fly ash. Sensitivity of trace elements to pH and liquid to solid ratio (as two major overriding factors) has been examined. Elements have been classified on the basis of their leaching behaviour under different conditions. Results from this study have been used to identify leaching mechanisms. Also the fly ash has been examined under different standard batch leaching tests in order to evaluate and to compare these tests. A Leaching Test Framework has been devised for assessing the stability of trace elements from fly ashes in different environments. This Framework assists in designing more realistic batch leaching tests appropriate to field conditions and can support the development of regulations and protocols for the management and disposal of coal combustion by-products or other solid wastes of environmental concern.     

Interpretation of standard leaching test BS EN 12457-2: is your sample hazardous or inert?

A slag sample from a lead refiner has been obtained and given to two analytical laboratories to determine the release of trace elements from the sample according to BS EN 12457-2. Samples analysed by one laboratory passed waste acceptance criteria, leading it to be classified as an inert material; samples of the same material analysed by the other laboratory failed waste acceptance criteria and were classified as hazardous. It was found that the sample preparation procedure is the critical step in the leaching analysis and that the effects of particle size on leachability should be taken into account when using this standard. The purpose of this paper is to open a debate on designing a better defined standard leaching test and making current waste acceptance criteria more flexible.     

Evaluating the prospects for sustainable energy development in a sample of Chinese villages

This paper describes the methods used to evaluate the potential for achieving sustainable energy development in six Chinese villages included in the Sustainable Users' Concepts for China Engaging Scientific Scenarios (SUCCESS) Project by examining energy efficiency potential and local renewable energy prospects. The approaches needed to obtain and analyse information on possible energy efficiency measures and renewable energy resources are summarised. Results are presented in terms of cumulative net savings in primary energy consumption, as an indicator of energy resource depletion, and associated carbon dioxide emissions, as an indicator of global climate change. Options for sustainable energy development are ranked in order of likely implementation and practical actions which could be considered in each village are identified.