Probabilistic Flood Inundation Forecasting Using Rating Curve Libraries

One approach for performing uncertainty assessment in flood inundation modeling is to use an ensemble of models with different conceptualizations, parameters, and initial and boundary conditions that capture the factors contributing to uncertainty. However, the high computational expense of many hydraulic models renders their use impractical for ensemble forecasting. To address this challenge, we developed a rating curve library method for flood inundation forecasting. This method involves pre‐running a hydraulic model using multiple inflows and extracting rating curves, which prescribe a relation between streamflow and stage at various cross sections along a river reach. For a given streamflow, flood stage at each cross section is interpolated from the pre‐computed rating curve library to delineate flood inundation depths and extents at a lower computational cost. In this article, we describe the workflow for our rating curve library method and the Rating Curve based Automatic Flood Forecasting (RCAFF) software that automates this workflow. We also investigate the feasibility of using this method to transform ensemble streamflow forecasts into local, probabilistic flood inundation delineations for the Onion and Shoal Creeks in Austin, Texas. While our results show water surface elevations from RCAFF are comparable to those from the hydraulic models, the ensemble streamflow forecasts used as inputs to RCAFF are the largest source of uncertainty in predicting observed floods.     

Paleolimnological assessment of Grove and Plow Shop Ponds, Ayer, Massachusetts, USA--a superfund site

Three sediment cores from each of severely polluted Grove and Plow Shop Ponds, Ayer, Massachusetts, USA, were dated using (210)Pb, characterized for plant macrofossil assemblages, and analyzed for H(2)O, loss-on-ignition, stable Pb isotopes, and concentrations of As, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, methyl-Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. A core from nearby kettle Spectacle Pond, Littleton, Massachusetts, was similarly characterized (except for plant macrofossil assemblages) to assess the regional air pollution signal in sediment for comparison with the six cores. Accumulation rates for metals (mass per area per year), the anthropogenic component (mass per area per year), and total accumulation of the anthropogenic component (mass per area) indicate that As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, methyl-Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn have accumulated in sediment as a consequence of point source pollution from within the drainage basins of Grove and Plow Shop Ponds. Three distinct sources of pollution are inferred. As is entering Plow Shop Pond via groundwater in the southwest. Cd, Ni, Pb, and Zn are entering the system predominantly at the eastern end of, or upstream from, Grove Pond. Pb also comes from the northwest corner of Grove Pond, the principal source of Cr, Cu, and Hg. These results are consistent with chemistry of modern surface sediments. The history of pollution extends back more than 100 years. Intra- and inter-core variability of concentrations and accumulation rates indicate that much of the pollution was likely in particulate form with little physical redistribution. Recently, concentrations and accumulation rates have generally decreased substantially for those elements present in excessive concentrations in the past. This is a consequence of accumulation of recent, less polluted sediment. In Spectacle Pond, the nearby reference lake, accumulation rates for As, Cd, Hg, and Pb, adjusted for background values and changes in sedimentation rate, increased above background starting in the late 19th century, peaked about 1980, and declined substantially to 2000. These decreases suggest that the anthropogenic (pollution) component of atmospheric deposition of these elements declined after 1980 by at least 50%(As), 80%(Cd), 80%(Hg), and 80%(Pb).     

Focus on mission success: Process safety for the Atychiphobist

Modern process plants are complex engineering systems. While thorough reviews of system safeguards are performed, catastrophic events continue to occur, often unfolding in unforeseen ways. Success in process safety demands safe processes, and understanding rare, high consequence events is central to the traditional process safety approach. This philosophy is common to all high-hazard industries, offering the potential for sharing approaches, experience, and lessons learned. The problem, however, is that people (and organizations and entire industries) who fear failure (atychiphobia) sometimes obsess about failure so much that they miss opportunities to succeed.This paper examines selected risk management practices in the power generation and aerospace industries and how those practices have led to improved performance. Risk informed decision making (RIDM) has had widespread application in the nuclear and aerospace industries, and is undergoing enhancements to become a key framework for risk management. Additionally, rather than focusing on avoidance of loss, there are emerging approaches supporting achievement of success. This approach provides a more direct link of risk to business and operational objectives, but does challenge conventional risk approaches founded in a loss prevention-centric view. The paper reflects upon risk informed decision making and success modeling, and suggests how these methods may be applied in the field of process safety. Specific examples are drawn from the defense in depth approach from the nuclear power industry and mission success concepts developed for NASA.     

The dynamics of arsenic in four paddy fields in the Bengal delta

Irrigation with arsenic contaminated groundwater in the Bengal Delta may lead to As accumulation in the soil and rice grain. The dynamics of As concentration and speciation in paddy fields during dry season (boro) rice cultivation were investigated at 4 sites in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. Three sites which were irrigated with high As groundwater had elevated As concentrations in the soils, showing a significant gradient from the irrigation inlet across the field. Arsenic concentration and speciation in soil pore water varied temporally and spatially; higher As concentrations were associated with an increasing percentage of arsenite, indicating a reductive mobilization. Concentrations of As in rice grain varied by 2-7 fold within individual fields and were poorly related with the soil As concentration. A field site employing alternating flooded-dry irrigation produced the lowest range of grain As concentration, suggesting a lower soil As availability caused by periodic aerobic conditions.     

Ecological approach to resource survey and planning for environmentally significant Areas: The ABC method

A resource survey and planning method for parks, reserves, and other environmentally significant areas (ESAs) is presented in the context of a holistic balanced approach to land use and environmental management. This method provides a framework for the acquisition, analysis, presentation, and application of diverse ecological data pertinent to land use planning and resource management within ESAs. Through the independent analysis and subsequent integration of abiotic, biotic, and cultural or ABC information, land areas within an ESA are identified in terms of their relative environmental significance and environmental constraints. The former term encompasses wildlife, historic, and other resource values, while the latter term reflects biophysical hazards and sensitivities, and land use conflicts. The method thus calls for a matching of an ESA's distinctive attributes with appropriate land use and institutional arrancements through an analysis of available acts, regulations, agencies, and other conservation and land use management mechanisms. The method culminates with a management proposal showing proposed park or reserve allocations, buffer areas, or other land use controls aimed at preserving an ESA's special ecological qualities, while providing for resource development. The authors suggest that all resource management decisions affecting ESA's should be governed by a philosophical stance that recognizes a spectrum of broad land use types, ranging from preservation to extractive use and rehabilitation.     

Role of manganese oxides in the exposure of mute swans (Cygnus olor) to Pb and other elements in the Chesapeake Bay, USA

The aims of this study are to estimate exposure of waterfowl to elements in contaminated sediments in the Chesapeake Bay and to consider the potential role of Mn in influencing bioavailability and exposure. Metal concentrations were measured in livers and digesta taken from mute swans living on the Aberdeen Proving Ground, whose sediment had elevated concentrations of Cu, S, Se, Zn, As, Co, Cr, Hg and Pb. Concentrations of only the first four of these elements were elevated in swan digesta. None of the concentrations detected in the digesta or livers of the swans was considered toxic, although the concentrations of Cu and Se were high compared to concentrations of these elements reported in other waterfowl. Lead was found to be scavenged by Mn and Fe oxides from the water and deposited on the surface of vegetation at a reference site. Under some environmental chemical conditions, this is an important route of exposure to Pb in waterfowl, not previously recognized.     

Observations on the workshop as a means of improving communication between holders of traditional and scientific knowledge

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and the information and insights it offers to natural resource research and management have been given much attention in recent years. On the practical question of how TEK is accessed and used together with scientific knowledge, most work to date has examined documentation and methods of recording and disseminating information. Relatively little has been done regarding exchanges between scientific and traditional knowledge. This paper examines three workshop settings in which such exchanges were intended outcomes. The Barrow Symposium on Sea Ice, the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Restoration Program Synthesis/Information Workshops, and the Alaska Beluga Whale Committee illuminate certain features of the preparation, format, and context of workshops or series of workshops and their eventual outcomes and influence. The examples show the importance of long-term relationships among participants and thorough preparation before the actual workshop. Further research should look more systematically at the factors that influence the success of a given workshop and the various ways in which participants perceive success.     

Characterization and recycling of polymeric components present in cell phones

The cell phone market is developing at a rapid speed. Today there are more than 1.6 billion consumers in the world, and the lifetime of a cell phone is less than 2 years. As a consequence, there is an increase in the waste associated to this product, and many alternatives to the disposal of the cell phones are being studied, such as recycling which shows to be the most important. It is crucial to know what materials constitute the cell phone in order to carry out recycling and determine environmental and economical issues. This work presents an evaluation of the cell phone components, characterizing the raw materials and some properties of the recycled materials.     

In situ chemical oxidation: Lessons learned at multiple sites

This paper compiles a detailed set of in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO) lessons learned pertaining to design, execution, and safety based on global experiences over the last 20 years. While the benefits of a “correct” application are known (e.g., cost effectiveness, speed, permanence of treatment), history also provides examples of a variety of “incorrect” applications. These provide an opportunity to highlight recurring themes that resulted in failures. ISCO is, and will continue to provide, an important remedial tool for site remediation, particularly as a component of a multifaceted approach for addressing large and complex sites. Future success, however, requires an objective understanding of both the benefits and the limitations of the technology. The ability to learn from the mistakes of the past provides an opportunity to eliminate, or at least minimize, them in the future. Over the last 25 years of ISCO application, process understanding and knowledge have improved and evolved. This paper combines a thorough discussion of lessons learned through decades of ISCO implementation throughout all aspects of ISCO projects with an analysis of changes to the ISCO remediation market. By discussing the interplay of these two themes and providing recommendations from collective lessons learned, we hope to improve the future of safe, cost‐effective, and successful applications of ISCO.     

Dry and heat stress affects H2S production of Salmonella on selective plating media

The pH of Salmonella pre-enrichment media can become acidic (pH 4.0–5.0) when feeds/ingredients are incubated for 24?h. Salmonella in feed that have been stressed by heat and desiccation exhibit different pH tolerances than non-stressed cultures. Acidic conditions can result in cell injury/death and affect biochemical pathways. In this study, eight serotypes of Salmonella were grown in sterile meat and bone meal that was subjected to desiccation and heat stress. Cultures of non-stressed and stressed isolates were subsequently exposed to acidic pH from 4.0 to 7.0 in 0.5?pH increments (3 replicates/pH increment) in citrate buffer. At 6 and 24?h, serial dilutions were plated in duplicate on XLT-4 (xylose lysine tergitol-4) agar. Four serotypes showed an impaired ability to decarboxylate lysine on XLT-4. This inability to decarboxylate lysine was dependent on isolate, stress status, and incubation time. When the isolates’ ability to decarboxylate lysine was examined using biochemical tests, cultures were found to be able to decarboxylate lysine with the exception of S. Infantis. This suggests that XLT-4 contains a biochemical stressor(s) which affects the rate of decarboxylation by these Salmonella. These results suggest that acidic conditions may influence the detection and confirmation of Salmonella in feed.