RESERVOIR TROPHIC STATE EVALUATION USING LANISAT TM IMAGES1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir water quality is traditionally monitored and evaluated based on field data. Collecting and analyzing field water quality data are costly and time consuming tasks, and whether a limited number of field data truly characterize the spatial variation of the trophic state within a vast water body is often disputed. In this study we utilize Landsat TM data to estimate the water quality and trophic state of the Te‐Chi reservoir in Central Taiwan. A modified multi‐parameter model of Carlson's trophic state index (TSI) was developed for the Te‐chi reservoir. Water quality parameters (concentration of chlorophyll‐a, total phosphorous measurement, and secchi disk depth) required by the model are found to have high correlations with combinations of TM bands. Therefore, TM data are used to map the trophic state of the reservoir. TM‐derived TSI maps of the reservoir reveal that, in summer, the trophic state in the reservoir generally improves from upstream to downstream and that zones of distinct trophic state exist. A trophic state index based on secchi disk depth may give erroneous values in the upstream section of the reservoir pool due to high sediment concentration in the reservoir inflow. We conclude that the Te‐Chi reservoir is eutrophic or worse in summer and meso‐eutrophic in winter. Implementation of best management practices to reduce nonpoint source pollution in the upstream watershed is highly recommended. This study demonstrates the capability of mapping the trophic state in impounded water bodies using the Landsat TM data.     

A SCALE‐INVARIANT GAUSS‐MARKOV MODEL FOR DESIGN STORM HYETOGRAPHS1

Abstract. Hyetographs are essential to many hydrological designs. Many studies have shown that hyetographs are specific to storm types and durations. Recent work presented evidence that dimensionless hyetographs are scale invariant. We show that the simple scaling property of rainfall guarantees that the normalized rainfall rates of different storm durations are identically distributed and propose a nonstationary Gauss‐Markov model based on the annual maximum events that arise from the dominant storm type. We derive the unique estimators for the parameters of the Gauss‐Markov model under two constraints that: (a) the typical peak rainfall rate is preserved, and (b) the most likely hyetograph is obtained. One attractive feature of this model is that it allows translating hyetographs between storms of different durations. Two examples illustrate our model.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES OF THE TSENGWEN CREEK WATERSHED IN TAIWAN1

ABSTRACT: This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public.     

Time stress,predation risk and diurnal–nocturnal foraging trade-offs in larval prey

Insect larvae increase in size with several orders of magnitude throughout development making them more conspicuous to visually hunting predators. This change in predation pressure is likely to impose selection on larval anti-predator behaviour and since the risk of detection is likely to decrease in darkness, the night may offer safer foraging opportunities to large individuals. However, forsaking day foraging reduces development rate and could be extra costly if prey are subjected to seasonal time stress. Here we test if size-dependent risk and time constraints on feeding affect the foraging–predation risk trade-off expressed by the use of the diurnal–nocturnal period. We exposed larvae of one seasonal and one non-seasonal butterfly to different levels of seasonal time stress and time for diurnal–nocturnal feeding by rearing them in two photoperiods. In both species, diurnal foraging ceased at large sizes while nocturnal foraging remained constant or increased, thus larvae showed ontogenetic shifts in behaviour. Short night lengths forced small individuals to take higher risks and forage more during daytime, postponing the shift to strict night foraging to later on in development. In the non-seasonal species, seasonal time stress had a small effect on development and the diurnal–nocturnal foraging mode. In contrast, in the seasonal species, time for pupation and the timing of the foraging shift were strongly affected. We argue that a large part of the observed variation in larval diurnal–nocturnal activity and resulting growth rates is explained by changes in the cost/benefit ratio of foraging mediated by size-dependent predation and time stress.     

Biodiversity Loss in Latin American Coffee Landscapes: Review of the Evidence on Ants,Birds, and Trees

Abstract: Studies have documented biodiversity losses due to intensification of coffee management (reduction in canopy richness and complexity). Nevertheless, questions remain regarding relative sensitivity of different taxa, habitat specialists, and functional groups, and whether implications for biodiversity conservation vary across regions. We quantitatively reviewed data from ant, bird, and tree biodiversity studies in coffee agroecosystems to address the following questions: Does species richness decline with intensification or with individual vegetation characteristics? Are there significant losses of species richness in coffee‐management systems compared with forests? Is species loss greater for forest species or for particular functional groups? and Are ants or birds more strongly affected by intensification? Across studies, ant and bird richness declined with management intensification and with changes in vegetation. Species richness of all ants and birds and of forest ant and bird species was lower in most coffee agroecosystems than in forests, but rustic coffee (grown under native forest canopies) had equal or greater ant and bird richness than nearby forests. Sun coffee (grown without canopy trees) sustained the highest species losses, and species loss of forest ant, bird, and tree species increased with management intensity. Losses of ant and bird species were similar, although losses of forest ants were more drastic in rustic coffee. Richness of migratory birds and of birds that forage across vegetation strata was less affected by intensification than richness of resident, canopy, and understory bird species. Rustic farms protected more species than other coffee systems, and loss of species depended greatly on habitat specialization and functional traits. We recommend that forest be protected, rustic coffee be promoted, and intensive coffee farms be restored by augmenting native tree density and richness and allowing growth of epiphytes. We also recommend that future research focus on potential trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and farmer livelihoods stemming from coffee production.     

Recolonizing wolves and mesopredator suppression of coyotes: impacts on pronghorn population dynamics.

Food web theory predicts that the loss of large carnivores may contribute to elevated predation rates and, hence, declining prey populations, through the process of mesopredator release. However, opportunities to test predictions of the mesopredator release hypothesis are rare, and the extent to which changes in predation rates influence prey population dynamics may not be clear due to a lack of demographic information on the prey population of interest. We utilized spatial and seasonal heterogeneity in wolf distribution and abundance to evaluate whether mesopredator release of coyotes (Canis latrans), resulting from the extirpation of wolves (Canis lupus) throughout much of the United States, contributes to high rates of neonatal mortality in ungulates. To test this hypothesis, we contrasted causes of mortality and survival rates of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) neonates captured at wolf-free and wolf-abundant sites in western Wyoming, USA, between 2002 and 2004. We then used these data to parameterize stochastic population models to heuristically assess the impact of wolves on pronghorn population dynamics due to changes in neonatal survival. Coyote predation was the primary cause of mortality at all sites, but mortality due to coyotes was 34% lower in areas utilized by wolves (P < 0.001). Based on simulation modeling, the realized population growth rate was 0.92 based on fawn survival in the absence of wolves, and 1.06 at sites utilized by wolves. Thus, wolf restoration is predicted to shift the trajectory of the pronghorn population from a declining to an increasing trend. Our results suggest that reintroductions of large carnivores may influence biodiversity through effects on prey populations mediated by mesopredator suppression. In addition, our approach, which combines empirical data on the population of interest with information from other data sources, demonstrates the utility of using simulation modeling to more fully evaluate ecological theories by moving beyond estimating changes in vital rates to analyses of population-level impacts.     

Past,present, and future of a freshwater fish metapopulation in a threatened landscape

It is well documented that hydropower plants can affect the dynamics of fish populations through landscape alterations and the creation of new barriers. Less emphasis has been placed on the examination of the genetic consequences for fish populations of the construction of dams. The relatively few studies that focus on genetics often do not consider colonization history and even fewer tend to use this information for conservation purposes. As a case study, we used a 3‐pronged approach to study the influence of historical processes, contemporary landscape features, and potential future anthropogenic changes in landscape on the genetic diversity of a fish metapopulation. Our goal was to identify the metapopulation's main attributes, detect priority areas for conservation, and assess the consequences of the construction of hydropower plants for the persistence of the metapopulation. We used microsatellite markers and coalescent approaches to examine historical colonization processes, traditional population genetics, and simulations of future populations under alternate scenarios of population size reduction and gene flow. Historical gene flow appeared to have declined relatively recently and contemporary populations appeared highly susceptible to changes in landscape. Gene flow is critical for population persistence. We found that hydropower plants could lead to a rapid reduction in number of alleles and to population extirpation 50–80 years after their construction. More generally, our 3‐pronged approach for the analyses of empirical genetic data can provide policy makers with information on the potential impacts of landscape changes and thus lead to more robust conservation efforts.     

Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea‐level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea‐level rise predictions into a decision‐making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea‐level rise and assuming a risk‐neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade‐offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. Minimizando el Costo de Mantener Opciones Abiertas para la Conservación en un Clima Cambiante     

Seventy‐One Important Questions for the Conservation of Marine Biodiversity

The ocean provides food, economic activity, and cultural value for a large proportion of humanity. Our knowledge of marine ecosystems lags behind that of terrestrial ecosystems, limiting effective protection of marine resources. We describe the outcome of 2 workshops in 2011 and 2012 to establish a list of important questions, which, if answered, would substantially improve our ability to conserve and manage the world's marine resources. Participants included individuals from academia, government, and nongovernment organizations with broad experience across disciplines, marine ecosystems, and countries that vary in levels of development. Contributors from the fields of science, conservation, industry, and government submitted questions to our workshops, which we distilled into a list of priority research questions. Through this process, we identified 71 key questions. We grouped these into 8 subject categories, each pertaining to a broad component of marine conservation: fisheries, climate change, other anthropogenic threats, ecosystems, marine citizenship, policy, societal and cultural considerations, and scientific enterprise. Our questions address many issues that are specific to marine conservation, and will serve as a road map to funders and researchers to develop programs that can greatly benefit marine conservation. Setenta y Un Preguntas Importantes para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Marina     

Efficient and equitable design of marine protected areas in Fiji through inclusion of stakeholder‐specific objectives in conservation planning

The efficacy of protected areas varies, partly because socioeconomic factors are not sufficiently considered in planning and management. Although integrating socioeconomic factors into systematic conservation planning is increasingly advocated, research is needed to progress from recognition of these factors to incorporating them effectively in spatial prioritization of protected areas. We evaluated 2 key aspects of incorporating socioeconomic factors into spatial prioritization: treatment of socioeconomic factors as costs or objectives and treatment of stakeholders as a single group or multiple groups. Using as a case study the design of a system of no‐take marine protected areas (MPAs) in Kubulau, Fiji, we assessed how these aspects affected the configuration of no‐take MPAs in terms of trade‐offs between biodiversity objectives, fisheries objectives, and equity in catch losses among fisher stakeholder groups. The achievement of fisheries objectives and equity tended to trade‐off concavely with increasing biodiversity objectives, indicating that it is possible to achieve low to mid‐range biodiversity objectives with relatively small losses to fisheries and equity. Importantly, the extent of trade‐offs depended on the method used to incorporate socioeconomic data and was least severe when objectives were set for each fisher stakeholder group explicitly. We found that using different methods to incorporate socioeconomic factors that require similar data and expertise can result in plans with very different impacts on local stakeholders.