Neural network model for predicting peak photochemical pollutant levels

In this paper, an attempt is made for the 24-hr prediction of photochemical pollutant levels using a neural network model. For this purpose, a model is developed that relates peak pollutant concentrations to meteorological and emission variables and indexes. The analysis is based on measurements of O3 and NO2 from the city of Athens. The meteorological variables are selected to cover atmospheric processes that determine the fate of the airborne pollutants while special care is taken to ensure the availability of the required input data from routine observations or forecasts. The comparison between model predictions and actual observations shows a good agreement. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests is performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the uncertainty in meteorological variables. Model forecasts are generally rather insensitive to small perturbations in most of the input meteorological data, while they are relatively more sensitive in changes in wind speed and direction.     

Effects of point-source PCB contamination on breeding performance and post-fledging survival in the dipper Cinclus cinclus

Despite widespread information on the incidence and biochemical effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in birds, field studies of effects on population processes are still scarce. This is particularly so in passerines. We therefore assessed breeding performance and post-fledging survival in dippers, Cinclus cinclus, breeding along the Afon Mule, a Welsh river where previous work indicated locally elevated PCB concentrations. We hypothesised that marked toxicological effects, including endocrine disruption, would be detectable as altered clutch-size, hatching success, nest success, brood-size, post-fledging survival or recruitment to the breeding population. Congener-specific analysis of PCBs in failed and deserted dipper eggs during 1990-93 revealed that geometric mean concentrations were four to 20 times higher along the Mule than elsewhere in Wales, UK. PCB signatures also varied highly significantly from other locations, with congeners 138, 153 and 180 dominant at the contaminated site, but 118 or 170 more frequent in eggs elsewhere. Subsequent analysis of surface runoff confirmed a small breaker's yard as a point source. Neither laying dates, clutch-sizes, brood-sizes, nest failure nor hatching failure along the contaminated Mule (n=46 breeding attempts and 218 eggs) differed significantly from dippers along adjacent reference rivers (n=82 breeding attempts and 315 eggs) or Welsh rivers as a whole (n=332 breeding attempts and 1534 eggs). Subsequent recaptures of breeding dippers ringed initially as nestlings were nearly identical between the Mule (7.7% of 182 nestlings), the reference set (7.5% of 323 nestlings) and all other Welsh rivers (7.3% of 2821 nestlings). These data illustrate the value of congener-specific analysis of bird's eggs in indicating local PCB sources. The data show also that PCBs can occur in dipper eggs at total concentrations of 0.49 (geometric mean)-1.29 (upper quartile) microg g(-1) wet mass without effects on breeding performance and survival. These values are below those at which biochemical or reproductive effects on other passerines have been detected, but above current concentrations in any other population of European dippers for which PCB data are available. Population effects by PCBs on European dippers are therefore unlikely. Survivors from locally contaminated sites like that in our study might allow field assessments of second-generation effects on breeding performance in wild birds that have developed under PCB exposure.